The Field of 16: Projecting the Cup Series Playoffs entering Nashville

Editor’s Note: Racing Insights’ playoff projections use a combination of current standings and historical performance at upcoming tracks to determine the probability of each driver winning or making the playoffs on points.

With the Cup Series Playoffs on the mind throughout the season, what if there was a way to project how the 16-driver field could look before each race weekend?

It now exists via Racing Insights. From now until the start of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, “The Field of 16” will give fans a weekly look at where their favorite drivers could potentially land in the postseason field — and the likelihood of having a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Here’s this week’s update on the projections heading into Nashville Superspeedway.

NOTABLE PROBABILITY SHIFTS POST-LOUDON

nashville playoff predictor

DRIVERS SOLIDLY IN PLAYOFF PICTURE

Ten drivers are provisionally locked into the 2024 Cup Series Playoffs, with four of those guaranteed as Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Christopher Bell have all won multiple times this season.

With eight races remaining in the regular season, Hendrick Motorsports teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are tied at the top of the Cup Series standings that will award 15 playoff points to the regular-season points leader after the Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway.

Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Austin Cindric, Daniel Suárez and defending champ Ryan Blaney each have a win in 2024. With four new winners already this year compared to 2023, it’s best to have a good points cushion to the provisional elimination line as Martin Truex Jr. and Ross Chastain have as they sit with 95% or better probabilities of making the 16-driver field.

LAST 4 IN

Despite so-so finishes over the last month, Ty Gibbs saw a slight bump in his probability as he returns to the 90% mark. His last top-10 performance came during May’s Coca-Cola 600.

Chris Buescher saw the highest bump in playoff probability, going from under 70% before New Hampshire to above 85% entering the ‘Music City.’ Buescher owns two top fives across the last three races but finished 18th last year in Nashville.

Arguably, the biggest loser of the weekend was Alex Bowman. Despite 10 top 10s already in 2024, an engine failure at New Hampshire saw a massive dip in Bowman’s playoff probability, dropping over 16 points before Nashville. One factor could be last season’s summer stretch for Bowman, where he only mustered two top 10s between April and August.

Joey Logano looked to be on his way to a massive points day or even a win Sunday at New Hampshire before locking up on a restart during the final stage and wrecking into Elliott. Scoring a large chunk of stage points, however, Logano was able to move into the provisional 16th and final playoff spot by 13 points ahead of Bubba Wallace.

FIRST 4 OUT

It’s hard to have a race as bad as Kyle Busch had at New Hampshire. After two earlier incidents, the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet slammed the wall under caution on the wet-weather tires, ending the miserable day for Busch and Co. Busch is now down 45 points to the 16-driver playoff field, and there are little signs pointing to results turning around for the team.

The same could also be said for Bubba Wallace, who was having a mediocre day at Loudon before being wiped out by Noah Gragson in a multicar incident late last Sunday. Now, with just a probability slightly above 22%, Wallace needs to have a decent run at Nashville to somewhat plateau that probability.

Michael McDowell and Josh Berry round out the playoff picture once again. Berry was in the fight for victory for a second consecutive win and came up just short Sunday with a third-place result. McDowell was also in the mix in Loudon before an assertive restart in the closing laps caused himself and Ryan Blaney to spin.

WHO CAN SHAKE UP PLAYOFF PICTURE AT NASHVILLE?

Based on trends in the first three Cup events at Nashville, it’s hard to pinpoint an underdog breaking through for their first win of 2024. While winless this season, Chastain’s 98% probability isn’t much of a shake up but entering as the defending winner and owning the best average finish at the track in the series (2.7), the No. 1 Chevrolet could very well be the 11th different winner of the season come Sunday evening.

MORE: Racing Insights predicts Nashville | 2024 Cup Series schedule

Before each race weekend, check back into The Field of 16 to see the latest projections of the 2024 Cup Series playoff field.

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