Wimbledon draw: Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz in same bracket; Iga Swiatek No. 1

There’s little doubt that the changing of the guard in men’s tennis is underway, if not already near completion as the biggest tournament of the year begins Monday on the grass at Wimbledon.

Rafael Nadal isn't there, choosing instead to prepare for the Paris Olympics in what seems almost certain to be his last year on the tour. Andy Murray’s body is seemingly being held together by glue and duct tape, and it’s unclear whether he’ll even be healthy enough to say goodbye to the tournament where he broke a 77-year drought for British men. Novak Djokovic has entered and is the No. 2 seed, but his 2024 thus far has been characterized by uninspired play and a meniscus injury that took him out of the French Open. How healthy he is or how well he is capable of playing currently is a total mystery.

But it's inaccurate to say that this is a wide open Wimbledon, at least for now.

Jannik Sinner, the newly-minted World No. 1, won the Australian Open to begin the year and has been the best player overall this season. Carlos Alcaraz, just 21, already has three Grand Slam titles in his bag and is the defending champion here.

Until proven otherwise, those two are a good distance ahead of the pack − especially on grass, where many of the other usual suspects on the men’s side do not have strong track records.

But as Friday’s draw shook out, Sinner and Alcaraz ended up in the same half of the bracket, meaning they’d face each other in the semifinals instead of the finals. That’s the only negative this weekend as tennis fans get ready for one of the most exciting weeks of the year at the All England Lawn Tennis & Croquet Club.

Here are five things to know about the the Wimbledon field:

Tommy Paul has a big chance to do damage

Now the top-ranked American man after winning the traditional warm-up event at Queen’s Club, Paul should absolutely cruise to the quarterfinals after landing in one of the softer sections of a Grand Slam draw you’ll ever see.

Paul’s first test should come in the third round against 23rd seed Alexander Bublik, who has a big serve that can cause trouble on grass but has never shown the mentality or discipline to advance far at Grand Slams. In theory, Paul’s round of 16 opponent would be No. 8 seed Casper Ruud, but the three-time Slam finalist is a well-known grass hater who has never advanced beyond the second round at this event.

Paul, 27, has really come into his own as a player this year with a pair of titles and consistent play across all surfaces. His elite athleticism translates well to the low-bouncing grass, and he’s carrying good form into this event. Interestingly, he’s also been a tough matchup in the past for Alcaraz, as they’ve split four career meetings.

If they both advance, Paul would get another shot at Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. Playing the best tennis of his life right now — including his run to the 2023 Australian Open semis — this may be Paul’s best shot to sneak into the major-winning conversation.

Can Novak Djokovic play his way into form?

Djokovic had to pull out of the French Open after gutting his way to the quarterfinals, and the conventional wisdom was that he wouldn't have enough time to be healthy for Wimbledon after undergoing surgery.

But Djokovic has been practicing this week, albeit seemingly a bit limited in his movement and noncommittal about whether he would actually play. However, his draw will almost certainly motivate him to give it a shot.

His first-round opponent, qualifier Vit Kopriva, is ranked 123rd and making his Slam main draw debut. His potential second-round opponents are both outside the top-150. The other seed in Djokovic’s section is clay specialist Tomas Martin Etcheverry, and his round of 16 opponent would project to be either 21-year old Holger Rune, who has had a pretty disappointing year, or Karen Khachanov, who is 1-9 against Djokovic.

If he is suitably healthy and can use the rounds to sharpen his game and build some on-court stamina, the draw is so favorable on paper that Djokovic should probably get to the final even with all the question marks. Maybe his decision to enter the tournament wasn't so crazy after all.

Iga Swiatek's grass conundrum 

The top player in women's tennis, and potentially on the path to becoming one of the best ever, Iga Swiatek still has a major hole in her résumé at Wimbledon. Much like her idol, Nadal, Swiatek has established dominance on clay with four French Open titles by age 23. She’s also got a US Open title and enough other big tournament wins on hard court to make her the top threat on that surface as well.

But grass is a different story, where last year’s quarterfinal was her first decent result.

Part of the issue is that Swiatek doesn’t have enough reps dealing with the quirks of playing on an unfamiliar surface. It's understandable. Her year is built around peaking on clay, and she has chosen to take a couple weeks off after the French to recuperate rather go straight to the grass.

But being a complete player means winning on all surfaces, and Swiatek is such a terrific athlete and mover that she should eventually play well at Wimbledon. Maybe this is the year, but the draw didn’t do her any favors. Swiatek will have to come out in Round 1 against Sofia Kenin, the 25-year old American who won the 2020 Australian Open and upset Coco Gauff at Wimbledon last year.

American women in strong position

Jessica Pegula, the No. 5 seed, has had a bit of a down year. She changed coaches early on and dealt with injuries through clay season, forcing her to pull out of Roland Garros.

But Pegula got back on track in a big way last week by winning the title in Berlin, beating Gauff 7-5, 7-6 in a tight semifinal matchup. Now 30, Pegula has gotten way more out of her career than many expected but would like to change the narrative about her 0-6 record in Grand Slam quarterfinals.

Last year’s Wimbledon loss was especially painful in that regard. Pegula had what seemed like a commanding 3-1 lead over Marketa Vondrousova in the third set before rain forced the roof to be closed. After the short delay, Pegula had a break point for a 5-1 lead but couldn't convert. Then, it quickly fell apart for Pegula as Vondrousova won five straight games — and ultimately, the Wimbledon title two matches later.

If Pegula is going to win a Grand Slam, it’s likely to be at Wimbledon where her flat ball can be really hard to deal with off the skidding grass. And this year, it looks like she caught a pretty nice draw. Her biggest threat in the round of 16 would appear to be No. 10 seed Ons Jabeur, who has had a nightmare season, and then possibly No. 4 seed Elena Rybakina, who hasn’t been healthy lately. It's a great opportunity for Pegula if she can take advantage.

On the other side of the draw, Gauff has a very nice-looking path as the No. 2 seed. Don't be surprised if she faces another American, No. 12 seed Madison Keys, in the quarterfinals.

Huge stakes for Chris Eubanks

Remember last year when the big serving 28-year old from Atlanta made the quarterfinals out of nowhere and was suddenly one of the biggest sports stories in America?

Well, there’s a reason you haven’t heard much about Eubanks since then: His ATP-level record is just 10-22 over the last year, and his ranking has slipped all the way down to No. 62 after leaving Wimbledon in 2023 at No. 31.

But there's even worse news ahead. Tennis has a 52-week ranking system, so all the points Eubanks earned by reaching the Wimbledon quarterfinals will come off his total. If he were to lose his first-round matchup to Frenchman Quentin Halys, his ranking would fall to somewhere around No. 140.

That would mean a return to the Challenger Tour, where Eubanks had to grind for years before finally reaching the top-100 in early 2023 and then breaking through in a big way last summer.

Eubanks has a big future ahead as a television commentator, but he undoubtedly wants to squeeze a bit more out of his on-court career. He really needs to win some matches at Wimbledon for that to be viable beyond this year.