Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

May 14, 2024; Arlington, Texas, USA; Cleveland Guardians first base Josh Naylor (22) hits a three-run home run during the second inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

The Cleveland Guardians (51-27) and Kansas City Royals (44-38) begin a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET (FS1). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Guardians vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1

The Guardians won the 1st meeting 8-5 at home June 4 as moderate -128 favorites with the Over (8) cashing. The 2nd scheduled game, on June 5, was rained out and will be made up as part of a split doubleheader Aug. 26. The Royals won 4-3 in the June 6 meeting as +149 underdogs as the Under (7.5) hung on.

Cleveland was doubled up 4-2 in the series finale in Baltimore Wednesday, but the Guardians had won their previous 7 games. The Under (8.5) cashed Wednesday, but the Over is 6-3-1 across the past 10 contests.

Kansas City won 2 of 3 games in an interleague series against the Miami Marlins Monday through Wednesday, hitting the Under in each game. In fact, the Under is 5-0 in the Royals' last 5 games and is 7-0-1 in the past 8 outings.

Guardians at Royals projected starters

RHP Ben Lively vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Lively (7-3, 3.03 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 65 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H (2 solo HR), 2 BB, 4 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays Saturday
• 2024 road splits: 3-3, 3.75 ERA (36 IP, 15 ER), 1.31 WHIP, .243 opponents' batting average (OBA), 6 HR, 1.31 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Royals: 1 road start in 2023, W, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 7-4 victory June 14, 2023

Wacha (4-6, 4.07 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 73 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 solo HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 6-0 setback at Texas Rangers Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 2-1, 4.28 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.35 WHIP, .286 OBA, 1 HR, 6.6 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Guardians: 2-0, 1.02 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 0.91 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 3 starts

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Guardians at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:14 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+140) | Royals +1.5 (-165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Guardians at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Royals 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-115) are a solid play on the road in this series opener between AL Central rivals.

Cleveland has been red-hot, winning 7 of the past 8 games, while going 13-8 in the previous 21 tries on the road.

While the Royals topped the lowly Marlins in 2 of 3 earlier in the week, they are still just 3-7 in the past 10 outings.

Run line/Against the spread

If you're a little more on the conservative side, and would like some insurance, the ROYALS +1.5 (-165) aren't priced out of line.

These teams split the first 2 games in Cleveland. As an underdog, Kansas City is 3-4 in the past 7 games as an underdog on the road line, with 2 outright victories.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (+100) is worth a look at even-money.

Both Lively and Wacha have posted respectable numbers this season, and this could be a surprising pitcher's duel.

The total has gone low in 8 of the past 12 starts by Wacha. The Under is also on a 7-0-1 run in the past 8 for the Royals, while cashing low in 10-2-1 in the previous 13 contests.

For the Guardians, the Under holds a slight 3-2-1 edge in the past 6 contests.

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions