MLB's 10 best rookie pitching seasons of past 50 years: Will Paul Skenes join the list?
MLB's 10 best rookie pitching seasons of past 50 years: Will Paul Skenes join the list?
Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes is everything we expected … and more. Less than seven weeks into his big-league career, the flamethrowing right-hander is asserting himself as one of the most formidable pitchers in baseball while sparking conversation about the top rookie seasons of all time.
Since his May 11 debut, Skenes is one of just six starting pitchers to record 60 or more strikeouts, and his eight walks are the fewest among that select group. Skenes and the Royals' Cole Ragans are the only two pitchers in baseball to rank in the top 10 in strikeouts with both his fastball and his offspeed pitches.
"I thought that with the stuff he has, he could handle the style of hitting that exists today," MLB on FOX analyst John Smoltz said of Skenes in his weekly conversation with Rowan Kavner. "His angle of release is so funky that at 101-102 mph, as long as he repeats his mechanics and doesn't get flat on the slider, he's virtually unhittable at times. He definitely has the package that the Pittsburgh Pirates saw when they drafted them."
On paper, Skenes' rookie campaign looks remarkably similar thus far to that of fellow former No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg. Consider the first eight starts of their respective careers:
Strasburg would scuffle near the end of his first year and make just 12 starts to dampen some of the shine from his incredible start with the Washington Nationals. It serves as a reminder that several unknowns still remain for the 22-year-old Skenes this summer. Will he stay healthy? Will he hit a rookie wall? Will the Pirates limit his innings?
For now, the generational talent is on track to log one of the best debut seasons ever.
With that, here are the 10 best rookie pitching seasons of the past 50 years.
(Note: Only seasons including 25 or more starts were considered. Pitchers are listed in chronological order.)
1. John Montefusco, San Francisco Giants, 1975
34 starts, 15-9, 243 IP, 2.89 ERA, 215 K, 1.21 WHIP, 6.0 fWAR, 6.8 bWAR
At 25 years old, Montefusco was an older rookie when he posted one of the more impressive campaigns from a newcomer. Nicknamed "The Count," Montefusco fanned a career-high 215 batters, which ranked second in the National League, and led the league in strikeouts per nine innings. He also threw four shutouts and 10 complete games. It was enough to edge Gary Carter for Rookie of the Year honors and finish fourth in Cy Young voting. Montefusco would earn his lone All-Star nod the following year, but his rookie season was slightly better.
2. Mark Fidrych, Detroit Tigers, 1976
29 starts, 19-9, 249.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 96 K, 1.07 WHIP, 4.6 fWAR, 9.6 bWAR
In the summer of 1976, Fidrych was the biggest spectacle in baseball. "The Bird" didn't make his first start until mid-May yet would start the All-Star game for the American League amid an unforgettable debut season. His 24 complete games (in 29 starts) are the most for a rookie over the past 78 years. No one else has even had 20. Fidrych led the majors in ERA, claimed Rookie of the Year honors and was runner-up to Hall of Famer Jim Palmer in a Cy Young vote the Tigers phenom should have won. It would mark the high point of the corky Fidrych's career, as he injured his knee in spring training the following year and pitched only 162 more innings in the majors before retiring at 29 years old.
3. Britt Burns, Chicago White Sox, 1980
32 starts, 15-13, 238 IP, 2.84 ERA, 133 K, 1.16 WHIP, 4.5 fWAR, 7.0 bWAR
It's pretty easy to overlook Burns' rookie year, especially since so many did in real time. Despite being one of the most effective pitchers in the American League — his 7.0 bWAR led the league — he wasn't an All-Star, didn't receive any Cy Young votes and finished fifth in the Rookie of the Year race. All Burns did was post, completing 11 games and logging at least seven innings in 22 of his 32 starts. He turned 21 midway through that year and would remain productive until a degenerative hip condition forced him to retire following his age-26 season.
4. Fernando Valenzuela, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1981
25 starts, 13-7, 192.1 IP, 2.48 ERA, 180 K, 1.05 WHIP, 4.9 fWAR, 4.8 bWAR
There was nothing quite like Fernandomania. No rookie pitcher — and perhaps position player — has gotten off to a better start to their career than Valenzuela. The crafty lefty from Mexico won each of his first eight starts, throwing five shutouts in the process. While the 1981 season was interrupted by a strike, there was no stopping Valenzuela. The 20-year-old led the majors in strikeouts and shutouts and the National League in innings and complete games. He's still the only rookie to win Cy Young and he placed fifth in the NL MVP race. Valenzuela also earned Rookie of the Year and Silver Slugger honors and was an All-Star. He capped off his rookie campaign for the ages by leading the Dodgers to a World Series title.
5. Dwight Gooden, New York Mets, 1984
31 starts, 17-9, 218 IP, 2.60 ERA, 276 K, 1.07 WHIP, 8.3 fWAR, 5.5 bWAR
Gooden's rookie year is the most dominant, if not simply the best overall, for a pitcher in MLB history. The 19-year-old led the majors in strikeouts and several advanced stats to easily win Rookie of the Year and earn an All-Star selection. He was also the National League's most productive pitcher, but finished runner-up in the Cy Young race after the Cubs' Rick Sutcliffe put together a spectacular three-plus months following a trade from the American League. Forty years later, Gooden's record totals in fWAR (8.3) and strikeouts (276) haven't been approached by a rookie. Moreover, his subsequent 1985 campaign is arguably the best pitching season of all time.
6. Hideo Nomo, Los Angeles Dodgers, 1995
28 starts, 13-6, 191.1 IP, 2.54 ERA, 236 K, 1.06 WHIP, 5.2 fWAR, 4.7 bWAR
Nomo was a sensation from the outset, and not just because he was the first Japanese-born major-leaguer in 30 years. He was an All-Star, led the National League in strikeouts, earned Rookie of the Year honors, and finished fourth in Cy Young voting. His 5.8 hits per nine innings also led the majors. Nearly three decades later, he remains the last rookie to throw three shutouts and one of only three ever to do so while also striking out more than 200 batters.
7. Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs, 1998
26 starts, 13-6, 166.2 IP, 3.40 ERA, 233 K, 1.21 WHIP, 4.4 fWAR, 3.9 bWAR
Everyone remembers his 20-strikeout game, which has a case as the single greatest pitching performance in MLB history. It was only the fifth start of Wood's career and has perhaps overshadowed his excellent rookie campaign overall. His 12.6 strikeouts per nine rate was a record for any pitcher. It's been topped nine times since, but remains by far the highest mark for a rookie. The hard-throwing right-hander claimed Rookie of the Year honors, edging out future Hall of Famer Todd Helton in the process.
8. Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2003
28 starts, 10-9, 180.2 IP, 2.84 ERA, 172 K, 1.15 WHIP, 4.3 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR
Webb's debut season is probably forgotten by many since he didn't win Rookie of the Year. But take a look under the hood, and it's easily one of the better rookie campaigns this century. The future Cy Young winner actually finished third in ROY voting behind Scott Posednik and winner Dontrelle Willis, despite the fact that he posted more innings, fewer hits allowed, a lower ERA, more strikeouts, a lower WHIP and considerably more WAR than the D-Train. And at the height of the steroid era, Webb's 2.89 ERA was 65% better than the league average. Alas, his 10-9 record presumably did him in as far as award recognition. But on a staff that boasted Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, Webb was the most effective. In fact, as he would soon make clear in the ensuing years, Webb was already one of the best pitchers in baseball before injuries completely derailed his Hall of Fame trajectory.
9. José Fernández, Miami Marlins, 2013
28 starts, 12-6, 172.2 IP, 2.19 ERA, 187 K, 0.98 WHIP, 4.2 fWAR, 6.2 bWAR
Fernández made his major-league debut at age 20 and was immediately one of the best pitchers in baseball. He ranked first in hits allowed per nine innings (5.8), second in ERA (2.19) and fifth in strikeouts per nine (9.7) in his first season. That earned him an All-Star selection, Rookie of the Year honors and a third-place finish in the NL Cy Young race. His spectacular campaign was one of just seven since 2013 in which a pitcher recorded 180-plus strikeouts while allowing less than 6.0 H/9 over at least 150 innings. Fernández was the lone rookie of the bunch (and the only pitcher under 25 years old). Three years later, he was wrapping up a similarly dominant campaign when he tragically passed away in a boating accident at just 24 years old.
10. Michael Soroka, Atlanta Braves, 2019
29 starts, 13-4, 174.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 142 K, 1.11 WHIP, 4.0 fWAR, 6.1 bWAR
Don't let this year, or the past, cloud how excellent Soroka was in his lone full season. The burly right-hander fired a 2.68 ERA, which was third-best in the National League and 71% better than the MLB average, while his home run allowed rate led the NL. Soroka made the All-Star team and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and sixth in Cy Young. His output most years would have made him an easy choice for ROY. But 2019 wasn't most years, as Pete Alonso slugged an MLB-record 53 home runs to run away with the award. More unfortunate for Soroka, he tore his Achilles tendon three starts into the following season and subsequently missed the next two years. Still just 26 years old, he hasn't been able to regain his form since returning to the mound in 2023.
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