Groundhog Day for Socceroos as Japan again stand in way on road to World Cup

The draw for the third round of 2026 World Cup qualifying has thrown Australia into a ‘group of death’. Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images

At what point do the Socceroos start asking if their World Cup qualification efforts have fallen into a Groundhog Day-style loop? After being drawn in the same group as Japan and Saudi Arabia for the third consecutive campaign, they’d probably be justified in doing so.

There was almost an air of inevitability as former Samurai Blue attacker Shinji Okazaki drew Australia into a group already containing Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Indonesia, and China on Thursday. Iran and South Korea also loomed as potential opponents from pot one but Okazaki, who himself has featured against the Socceroos seven times, set up meetings 28 and 29 between his nation and Australia.

If familiarity does indeed breed contempt, Australia and Japan would be forgiven for having one of the most contemptuous rivalries in football. The reality is that their rivalry is one is largely built of mutual respect. This campaign will mark the fifth consecutive World Cup cycle the Socceroos and Samurai Blue have been paired in the same qualification group, continuing a trend that first began when Australia joined the Asian Football Confederation in 2006 – fresh off defeating Japan at the World Cup in Germany.

Like the Socceroos, Japan staged a “perfect” run through the second phase of Asian qualification, winning all six games (one, against North Korea, via forfeit) while scoring an average of 4.2 goals per match and conceding none. Hajime Moriyasu’s team may have sandwiched this run around an anticlimactic Asian Cup that saw them eliminated by Iran in the quarter-finals, but Asia’s highest-ranked side will enter the coming fixtures as favourites to qualify for an eighth consecutive World Cup.

While nothing is for granted in Asian competition, the race for the one other automatic place at the World Cup on offer would ostensibly be between Australia and Saudi Arabia. The swollen 48-team format of the 2026 tournament means the third and fourth-placed sides from the three groups, rather than be eliminated, will advance to a fourth stage of qualification.

Led by Roberto Mancini and buoyed by the massive investment pouring into a domestic competition where its squad is entirely drawn from, the Saudis have recent history with the Socceroos. They finished above them and condemned them to an intercontinental playoff in both the 2022 and 2018 cycles. Little wonder, then, that drawing them instead of other potential opponents Uzbekistan and Jordan has led to declarations of a “group of death”.

However, while the world was stunned by their upset of eventual champions Argentina at the 2022 World Cup with Hervé Renard at the helm, the Saudis have been undergoing something of a period of rejuvenation under Mancini, and recent results have been up and down. Following a disappointing Asian Cup in which they were eliminated in the round of 16 by Korea, the Green Falcons finished second in their group behind Jordan in the previous phase of qualification, falling behind on goal difference after Jordan handed them a first home World Cup qualifier defeat in nearly 13 years.

In contrast, coach Graham Arnold has spoken in recent months of how the Socceroos are done rebuilding, of how he now has, compared to four years ago, “at least 30-odd players that are capable and ready” of contributing. On Thursday, he also noted that he won’t have to contend with the challenges of Covid this time around and that logistically, the draw has been quite kind, with his side only needing to make the long trek across to west Asia twice. For a nation that has designs on being amongst Asia’s best – one largely recognised as that by their rivals – seeing off Bahrain, China and Indonesia before going toe-to-toe with Japan and Saudi Arabia shouldn’t be seen as an insurmountable challenge. Not because of arrogance but, instead, because that’s the standard that a side of their ambition should be holding themselves to.

In something of a neat parallel, Australia’s final two games will come at home against Japan and then away to Saudi Arabia next June – just as was the case in 2022. Back then, a dispiriting defeat against Japan confined the Socceroos to the intercontinental playoff route and provided the nadir of Arnold’s tenure. Football Australia itself briefed against the coach as the axe hovered following a subsequent defeat in Jeddah. Add to this the presence of China in the group, against whom a dispiriting 1-1 draw in 2021 added further rot and something of a narrative emerges.

Group of death? Maybe. But perhaps this draw could be declared a chance at redemption for Arnold and the Socceroos. A true test of the growth of the side and a chance to right the wrongs of the past.