AJ Johnson & The First Step Towards Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Second Act

AJ Johnson & The First Step Towards Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Second Act

What I’m about to write can be fairly characterized as an unadulterated mix of copium and hopium so potent that it may take me to another dimension: For the first time in years, the Milwaukee Bucks have taken a firm step towards Giannis Antetokounmpo’s long-term future.

Get your laughs out of the way now, then stay with me here.

I cannot pretend to know much about Johnson. In fact, I’m not sure many people have much on Johnson outside of the bonafide Draft Freaks. He’ll turn 20 this December, stands somewhere between 6’4” and 6’5”, weighs merely 167 pounds, and opted to head to Australia’s NBL rather than spend a season in the NCAA. While with the NBL’s Illawarra Hawks, he appeared in 26 games to average just 7.9 minutes, 2.8 points (.355/.286/.538), 1.3 rebounds, and 0.7 assists. Consequently, there really isn’t much film on the guy that isn’t from his days as a high schooler or somewhat shakily shot NBA Combine footage.

The word is that the Bucks (and maybe a few other teams with picks late in the first round) were hooked by Johnson’s solid performance in Combine scrimmages and his individual workouts. From the very little we can watch, I agree that he looks to have strong fundamental feel for the game with the ball in his hands — I also concede that seven total minutes of highlights doesn’t make a prospect a sure thing and that his wiry frame will ensure he doesn’t log meaningful NBA minutes for years to come. As I said on Gabe’s piece on the pick last night, there is no likely world that ever sees Johnson and Damian Lillard share the court without making last year’s “Olé” defense look like Fort Knox by comparison. That means we’re very likely looking at 2026-2027 or 2027-2028 as the earliest point where AJ Johnson could have a serious role to play.

For a team on the Bucks competitive timeline, that is a tough pill to swallow. Guys picked 23rd overall rarely work out, but the numbers say a few of the deeper draft players will find a way to turn into at least serviceable NBA players. Given the age of players like Terrence Shannon Jr. or player profile of a Ryan Dunn, I understand and sympathize with those fans who were really hoping to see Milwaukee infuse their playable rotation with talent right now. Lillard is about to turn 34, Khris Middleton 33, Brook Lopez is now 36, and Bobby Portis (the last of the established core who can be considered relatively young) will turn 30 next February. This is a roster built to win now and in need of some help to do it.

Having slept on it, though, I’ve come to accept that last night’s draft was unlikely to be about the current Bucks. In the lead up, my attention was focused on guys who might only have just turned 20 with enough upside to log some casual minutes in 2024-2025, but whose ultimate trajectory was to be a cog in Giannis Antetokounmpo’s life after Dame, after Khris, and after Brook. Kel’el Ware was a personal favorite, as was Yves Missi, because I could see a path to some impact now and potential to augment a roster build around Giannis in the late 2020s.

While AJ Johnson is on the other end of the positional spectrum from those players (a very tall PG is the path I see him going down), this is the first draft pick in awhile that I’ve felt fulfills my expectation that the Bucks find tools for the future while they find ways to compete in the present elsewhere. Donte DiVincenzo, DJ Wilson, Jordan Nwora, MarJon Beauchamp, AJ Green, and Andre Jackson Jr. have all been 21 going on 22 when the Bucks selected them with visions that they’d need a short runway to catch up to the professional game. There was some potential in there, but years spent in college (or everyone on the map for MJB) meant they were closer to their ceiling from the word go. Mixed bag though they have been they were more in line with the strategy of rapidly reinforcing a competitive team.

It was time to pivot. Johnson is that pivot.

Johnson is the project of a generation: he will need to add muscle, prove he can shoot, and become adept as a perimeter menace with that long frame to have a chance to see the floor in the NBA. He will probably be a regular fixture in Oshkosh not only in 2024-2025, but 2025-2026, too. I cannot, in good faith, tell you I have even moderate hopes he will get there because it is already difficult to make the leap to the NBA for any player. He’ll have to walk that path with time split between Milwaukee and Oshkosh between two coaching staffs who will need to work very closely to guide the development arc. Minutes for his competition level shouldn’t be a problem — turning the corner into NBA minutes will be.

But the long-term play is finally here. If it goes unbelievably or even relatively well, the Bucks will have an unbelievably quick and oversized point guard of the future on hand. When Giannis Antetokounmpo’s raw athleticism wanes he will become more reliant on teammates that can help set him up or for whom he can create plays for them to pay off. GM Jon Horst & Co. need not assemble an entire shadow army of 19 year-olds in Oshkosh in a bid to build an entirely new Giannis 2.0 team from whole cloth that can be rolled out once Lillard and Middleton retire. But he does need to keep at least one foot rooted in a future that sees Giannis as the lynchpin of a roster that will look and play different by necessity.

AJ Johnson is a step in that strategic direction. Ultimately, I find that change encouraging, even as I grapple with qualms about the first player the team will invest its long-term hopes into. I’ll be rooting for him and the future he represents.