NBA Draft winners and losers: 4 teams who crushed it, 1 perfect fit, and 3 bad moments

27/06/2024

For a class that didn’t have much excitement around it, the 2024 NBA Draft sure did produce a lot of interesting moments. There was Isaiah Collier falling to the bottom of the first round to the Utah Jazz, the Timberwolves making a bold trade into the top-10, Pistons going with a best player available strategy despite obvious fit issues, and the Thunder getting our No. 1 overall prospect with the No. 12 pick.

Beauty was truly in the eye of the beholder in this class with a jarring lack of consensus in terms of how teams evaluated the top players. It’s going to be a few years before we really know which teams made the best and worst picks, but there are some teams who should be feeling better than others right now.

We’ve already graded every pick of the first round. Now let’s hand out our winners and losers of the 2024 NBA Draft.

Winner: Nuggets

DaRon Holmes was one of the most dominant players in college basketball last season for Dayton, but his transition to the NBA came with legitimate questions about fit. Holmes was going to be a bit undersized for a center with a 7’1 wingspan, and it didn’t feel like he was a natural volume shooter as a potential four. It’s hard to imagine a better one than the Nuggets.

Denver traded up to No. 22 to select Holmes, and it was one of the best picks of the first round. Holmes immediately adds a new dimension to the Nuggets front court with his positional versatility, power, and developing skill set. Whether he’s playing with Nikola Jokic or backing him up, he has a natural fit into Denver’s style of play at both ends of the floor.

Holmes made big improvements as a ball handler and shooter as a junior with the Flyers after mostly being a traditional rim runner/rim protector in his first two years. His evolution as an offensive player allows him to play out on the perimeter without sacrificing his physicality inside. I can see a version of his game that looks somewhat similar to current Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon: able to body people at the rim and on the glass while being just good enough as a shooter to space the floor. He’s going to be really good finishing plays from Jokic, and he can help keep the Nuggets’ bench units afloat down the road when Jokic rests. This is a wonderful marriage of player and team, and a big boon for the Nuggets’ long-term depth.

Winner: Thunder

I ranked Nikola Topic as the top player in the class on my 2024 NBA Draft big board. The Thunder have to be winners for taking him with the No. 12 pick.

Topic tore his ACL late in the season. My big concern was that a team would try to rush him back next season, but top Thunder executive Sam Presti has already said he likely won’t play in the 2024-2025 campaign. A patient approach is best for Topic, because his game is so reliant on his burst as a ball handler.

Topic has very good positional size for a point guard at 6’6, a blazing first step, and soft touch as a finisher around the rim. He knows how to read a defense in the pick-and-roll as a scorer and playmaker. On a team full of stars in OKC, Topic can be eased into the rotation as a backup guard and not be expected to carry the franchise on his shoulders. Still only 18 years old, I think Topic has the potential to be one of the best players in this class five or six years from now. The Thunder will put him in a position to get there without putting too much pressure on him.

Winner: Pistons

Holland was a Tier-1 player for me in this class. He seemed like a poor fit for the Pistons on paper due to his lack of shooting ability on a team already filled with non-shooters, but new executive Trajan Langdon understands something important about team-building: you draft for talent (especially in the top-5), and make trades and free agent signings for fit.

Holland brings an unparalleled defensive motor, elite athleticism, slashing, and transition scoring. If you’re going to be a bad shooter in today’s NBA, you have to be good at everything else. I think Holland can fit that bill long-term. Keep in mind he’s still only 18 years old.

How does Holland play next to Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, and Jalen Duren? It sure seems like Detroit won’t have enough shooting with that core, but remember that Langdon isn’t tied to anyone but Holland as the Pistons’ new front office leader. Detroit is in a good position to leverage their old core in trades for players and future picks. It won’t be a quick rebuild for the Pistons, but of course it wasn’t going to be coming off a 14-win season. Going BPA was smart, and Holland was a wise choice.

Winner: Rockets

The Rockets did the sensible thing at No. 3 by taking Reed Sheppard. It’s a perfect landing place for the Kentucky guard: he can provide shooting and defensive playmaking while the rest of Houston’s roster covers up his limitations in terms of length and athleticism.

The Rockets have some powerful athletes on the roster with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Cam Whitmore. They didn’t have a lot of shooting. Sheppard is a knockdown shooter who made 52 percent of his threes at Kentucky. He just knows how to pick his spots on- and off-the-ball, and his presence will immediately help balance the floor around Alperen Sengun.

Sheppard was an advanced stats marvel, but I was worried he could fall into a bad situation where he was asked to create offense off the dribble by himself. That won’t happen in Houston on a team that already has so many weapons. What a great fit for both the player and the team.

Winner: Rob Dillingham

Dillingham was one of the best creators in this draft class, a super shifty lead guard who can shoot from anywhere, drop dimes with tremendous vision, and stress defenses on- or off-the-ball. Dillingham is just extremely small at 6’1, 165 pounds, and because of that he is a poor defender.

Well, Dillingham somehow landed on the NBA’s best defensive team thanks to a shocking trade on draft night. The Minnesota Timberwolves acquired the Spurs’ No. 8 pick to select Dillingham for a 2030 pick swap and 2031 unprotected pick. It’s an incredibly risky trade by Minnesota that could be painful long-term, but it gives the team some badly needed shot-making and playmaking and a young point guard to groom behind Mike Conley.

I love the gamble. Minnesota’s offense bogged down in the halfcourt too often last year. Dillingham’s game is volatile because he’s so small and can commit bad turnovers and fouls, but when he’s at his best, he’s so dynamic offensively. Surrounded by Anthony Edwards, Jaden McDaniels, and Rudy Gobert, Dillingham should be able to lean into his strengths while not worrying about his weaknesses.

Loser: Bucks

I tried not to crush teams for their picks in my draft grades because this was such a weak class, I could see the vision on most selections. I had to pause that logic when the Bucks took AJ Johnson at No. 23, though.

The Bucks need to win-now around Giannis and Damian Lillard. Johnson couldn’t contribute in Australia as an 19-year-old last season, and he’s not going to contribute in the NBA in the short-term either. It’s possible Johnson’s size, ball handling, and playmaking could make him an effective NBA guard down the line, but he simply doesn’t fit Milwaukee’s window. For a team like the Bucks that has limited assets moving forward, this feels like a wasted pick.

Loser: Hawks

It’s possible that Zaccharie Risacher will be a very good “3-and-D” style wing in the NBA. He’s going to have to shoot it at an elite level on high volume for that to happen. It’s true that every team in the league wants big wings who can shoot and defend, and Risacher was pretty productive in a large role at a young age in the top French pro league.

He just looks nothing like a typical No. 1 overall pick due to his lack of shot creation, elite athleticism, and takeover scoring ability. It feels unlikely to me that Risacher will come out will come out as the best player in this class 10 years from now, and that mostly sets up the Hawks to look bad with this selection.

There was no obvious No. 1 pick in this class. Risacher has a higher floor than Alex Sarr, and you can argue he has a higher ceiling than drop coverage-only center like Donovan Clingan. This just feels like trying to hit a double at the plate when the Hawks badly needed a home run to change their long-term fortunes.

Loser: NBA GMs for letting Isaiah Collier slip

I though the Jazz should take USC point guard Isaiah Collier at No. 10 overall. To get him at No. 29 is an amazing coup.

Collier felt like an overrated prospect during the season when he was projected to go as a top-5 pick. After struggling badly to start the year, he was excellent for the final six weeks, and eventually started to look like a legit lottery talent again. NBA teams apparently never caught up, because one of the best shot creation bets in this class nearly fell out of the first round.

Collier is so fast, so strong, and so shifty as a lead ball handler. He has really good vision and can get to the foul line at will. Getting this type of talent at No. 29 is a crazy good value for Utah, and every other team will be kicking themselves if he one day reaches his long-term ceiling.