Are the Rams still the best situation for Matthew Stafford to succeed?
Are the Rams still the best situation for Matthew Stafford to succeed?
One of the biggest narratives surrounding quarterback Matthew Stafford before he joined the Los Angeles Rams was that the Detroit Lions rarely put a good team and situation around him.
If it’s one thing that the Stafford trade emphasized was that quarterback situation in the NFL matters. Of course the overall talent of the player has an effect, but a quarterback is also heavily dependent on their offensive line, play-makers, and offensive infrastructure around them. In a better situation, Stafford won a Super Bowl in his first season with the Rams.
With it being the offseason, some media outlets have been ranking the quarterback situation for each team. Pro Football Focus’ Sam Monson recently did this and did not include the Rams in his top-10.
Again, this isn’t ranking the individual quarterbacks themselves, but rather the situations that they’re in and their supporting casts. The idea here is also to see which quarterback is best set up for success based on the situation that they’ve been placed in and what the team has built around them. The criteria here is:
- Receiving Corps
- Offensive Line
- Head coach/Play-Calling
With that being the criteria, it does seem odd that the Rams wouldn’t be included in the top-10. Stafford knows that he likely needs another Super Bowl win to make a serious push into the Hall of Fame discussion. However, to win a Super Bowl, he’ll also need to have a solid team around him. Let’s take a look at where the Rams rank in the above criteria and if Stafford is set up for success.
Receiving Corps
While the Rams wide receiver room has a lot of upside, there are reasons to be concerned as well. It’s true that both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are the top two wide receivers on the roster. With that being said, is there a level of confidence that Kupp can return to 65% of what he was in 2021? Kupp has dealt with injuries each of the past two years which has affected his play.
The situation surrounding Kupp is one in which multiple things are true at the same time. It’s fair to have concerns about Kupp as he has dealt with injuries the last two years and he’s getting older. At the same time, everybody still wants to see Kupp back producing at the same level. With all of that said, it’s also hard to ignore that his 1.86 yards per route, 5.6 yards after catch per reception, 93.4 passer rating when targeted, and 49.5 percent success rate were all career lows. He also had a total EPA of just 8.9. The hope heading into this year is that Kupp is healthy and returns to form, even it it’s just 30 percent less than his 2021 level.
Trevor Sikkema of Pro Football Focus ranked the Rams as the eighth best wide receiver room in the NFL. Said Sikkema,
“Puka Nacua‘s emergence vaults the Rams into the top 10, if nothing else because of how effective and productive both he and Cooper Kupp have proven to be when healthy. Nacua was a record-setter last season, and Kupp won the receiving triple crown the last time he was fully healthy. The team’s receiving grades outside of them are low, but those two are good enough to carry the unit.”
It can certainly be argued that the Rams need an upgrade at the WR3 spot. However, Demarcus Robinson was solid in the offense last year and will look to build on that. TuTu Atwell has also shown productive moments as the team’s fourth wide receiver.
The Rams may not have AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, and Dallas Goddart or Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell. Still, with the upside of Kupp and Nacua at the top, this is still a top-10 wide receiver group.
Offensive Line
The Rams do have some questions surrounding their offensive line, but for the most part, this is a group that should be improved from last year. Coleman Shelton has been replaced by Steve Avila at center while Jonah Jackson will take over at left guard. The Rams also re-signed Kevin Dotson. At tackle, Rob Havenstein remain solid while Alaric Jackson is still a bit of a question mark.
When looking at the interior of the Rams offensive line, that will be one of the biggest and potentially best trios in football. Between Jackson, Avila, and Dotson, the Rams will have close to 1000 pounds protecting the pocket of Matthew Stafford and pushing around defensive linemen in the run game.
While the Rams may not have a top-10 offensive line to start the year, they are at the very least inside the top-half of the league with the upside to get into the top-seven by season’s end. Brandon Thorn of Establish The Run and Trench Warfare ranked the Rams offensive line 11th. Said Thorn,
“Head coach Sean McVay‘s transformation from utilizing a zone-based run scheme to a downhill, gap-based one will be complete this year, as the line is slated to have one of the heaviest in the league, particularly on the interior. Last year’s standout rookie left guard, Steve Avila, is moving inside to center to make room for free-agent signing Jonah Jackson from the Lions. With Kevin Dotson coming off of a career year, and as long as Avila can settle into the pivot, this will be one of the best interior trios in the NFL.”
Thorn’s ranking is pretty similar to what others have as well. FTN’s rankings have the Rams as high as fourth heading into the season while others like PFN have them 11th as well. It’s hard to be too down about this group considering how much the Rams have invested there.
Certainly, there are questions about Avila’s transition to center, but it is a position that he played at TCU and has plenty of experience at that spot. Jonah Jackson has missed games each of the last two years, but when healthy, he has been one of the best left guards in the NFL. The Rams have done what they can to keep their quarterback upright and give him time to throw.
Head Coach/Play-Caller
When it comes to the offensive infrastructure led by head coach Sean McVay, the Rams have one of the best in the NFL. Ranking NFL coaches and play-callers, McVay is almost undoubtedly within the top-5, a likely top-2 or 3 behind only Andy Reid and maybe Kyle Shanahan.
Patrick Dougherty of NBC Sports ranked the NFL’s head coaches heading into 2024. McVay came in at number two and said Dougherty,
“A complete master of the most minute details, McVay also insists on a fundamental, basic approach. Field goals will be kicked. The punting will continue until morale improves. Yet there he always is, contending for the division and making playoff runs even if the analytics say he left points on the field. And then there’s the brain trust...Sometimes it’s innovative, sometimes it’s old school. It’s always effective. With Aaron Donald retired and the roster low on depth, 2024 could be a difficult campaign. There is no current coach better equipped for the challenge.”
Again, when it comes to offensive minds and prowess, there are fewer coaches many would want in charge of their unit than McVay. When you consider what McVay has done just in his short time with the Rams, it’s impressive. McVay took over in 2017 and revitalized Jared Goff’s career by implementing an offense based around the wide zone run game and play action off of that. The Rams traded for Matthew Stafford in 2021 and the offense became a team that operated from empty and spread formations with almost no run game to speak of. Last year, McVay shifted once again moving to more of a gap-scheme run game and even incorporated some pistol formations. With McVay calling the shots, the Rams offense is never going to fall behind and will likely be one step ahead.
There aren’t many other coaches or offensive minds that a quarterback should want to play for and it’s clear that’s the case with Stafford and McVay.
Conclusion
Again, this isn’t looking the quarterback position itself, but rather the situation that the quarterback is in with the criteria of wide receiver corps, offensive line, and head coach/play-caller.
Using those criteria, it’s very difficult to see how the Rams aren’t listed inside the top-10 by Monson. The Atlanta Falcons have a top you receiver in Drake London, but behind him is Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore. Zac Robinson is also unproven as an offensive coordinator.
Kevin Stefanski is a good offensive mind, but McVay should be considered better in that regard. Additionally, the Browns receivers consist of Amari Cooper, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore. Even if there are concerns about Kupp, the Rams’ top three receivers offer more in the offense.
It’s hard to argue any of the others. While the Kansas City Chiefs have a weaker wide receiver corps, they have a top offensive line and Reid is the best offensive play-caller in the NFL.
Still, when you take the Rams receiving corps which is top-10, offensive line which is on the verge of being top-10, and McVay as the play-caller, it’s hard to find many other better quarterback situations in the NFL.
Matthew Stafford will be potentially entering the final few years of his career and there likely isn’t another situation he’d rather be in as he tries to go for a second Super Bowl ring.