2024 Fantasy Football: Bears offense brimming with talent and personnel aplenty
2024 Fantasy Football: Bears offense brimming with talent and personnel aplenty
Many summers ago, Shane Waldron was asked to help coach a weekend clinic for quarterbacks. He was working for the Rams at the time and other coaches from that team and others were going to be there. Not knowing much more about it, Waldron walked in and was blown away.
"In the first couple of drills we were working on, these guys were throwing the ball around the yard," Waldron told CBS Sports. "I'm thinking 'are we sure this is a high school camp right here?!' Then I got the insight on who the different QBs were."
One of the quarterbacks was a popular thrower out of Gonzaga College High School in Washington, D.C. named Caleb Williams. It was Waldron's first exposure to him, but clearly not the last. Fast forward four years, and Williams will be the Chicago Bears' starting quarterback after being taken No. 1 overall by the franchise, and Waldron will be Williams' offensive coordinator this season.
"It's amazing," Waldron said, marveling at the way things unfolded between these two.
Williams will learn Waldron's offense, unquestionably a West Coast system meant to manipulate defenses with pre-snap motion and play-action as well as multiplicity. His tendencies from Seattle suggest a pass-first mentality (these offenses piloted mostly by Geno Smith ranked fifth and 11th in pass rate in 2023 and 2022 respectively) with a heavy emphasis on both three-receiver and multi-tight end sets. And unless you've been living under a rock for the last four months, you know the Bears have assembled a tremendous receiving corps. It's D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze at receiver with Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett at tight end. That's on top of other contributors who carry experience (Freddie Swain, Marcedes Lewis) or some mild upside to help in a pinch (Nsimba Webster, Velus Jones). Above all, this depth allows the Bears to really reap the matchups every game.
"The best part about having a balanced offense will be the mindset for the quarterback of the ball going where the read takes him and not necessarily feeling like he has to force it anywhere," Waldron said. "I think having multiple guys you feel comfortable with getting the ball in their hands, that allows you to play freer at the QB position."
For his part, Williams had a good minicamp complete with improvement as the practices unfolded. He's clearly a talented passer with excellent mobility. Paired with the deep receiving corps, there's potential for Williams to be Chicago's first 4,000-yard passer ever. Seriously, they've never had one. They've also never had a quarterback throw more than 29 touchdowns in a season -- Williams could challenge that, too.
It's enough to make Fantasy managers excited to draft him with an inconsequential pick after 100th overall in one-QB leagues. He'll be more of a top-40 pick in Superflex/two-QB formats for obvious reasons.
Long-time Fantasy managers have come to know and love Allen. Though it's very unlikely he'll see the same kind of target volume he had in Los Angeles (at least 8.5 per game for seven consecutive seasons), he should still be a winner as a tall slot target, especially against defenses playing their safeties back and leaving the middle of the field open. In years past he was getting picked in Rounds 3 or 4. Expect at least a two-round discount this year, if not a four-round sale.
Moore finally won over drafters last season when he posted career-highs in catches (96), yards (1,364) and touchdowns (eight). He remains Chicago's No. 1 wide receiver and best all-around offensive weapon who can win on short routes or deep ones, working the sideline or crossing the field. He still has the physical traits to out-muscle defensive backs and the speed to run past them. It's why he'll be the first Bears player taken in every draft starting in that Round 3 range. It sounds silly to suggest, but even with the Bears' additions, Moore could come close to his yardage and touchdown tallies from 2023.
But the wild card in the offense is Odunze, the ninth overall selection in the draft. Like Moore, he's a playmaker capable of winning in a number of ways anywhere on the field, and like Allen, he's tall and rangy. He stood out at minicamp for not only working exclusively with the starters but for knowing his assignments and often being in sync with Williams.
Waldron believes Odunze has made a mental leap that only few rookies he's been around have made prior.
"I wouldn't compare Rome to any of them because all these guys are individuals in that regard, but obviously there's been some guys in the past like Cooper Kupp who picked everything up right away. Obviously a totally different style of player, but from the mental aspect of understanding of the game, Jaxon Smith-Njigba did a great job last year," Waldron explained. "Rome's right up there with those guys in being able to go out and play from a mental side early and often.
"How the year will play out, that goes back to the competition amongst everyone and how individual game plans play out."
Odunze will be hard-pressed to post huge numbers every single week because of the other components in Chicago's offense, so picking him for this season should be done with some reluctant skepticism. To his credit, Odunze, a Fantasy player himself, thinks he's going to be a flex right away. He's worth a top-100 pick as a bench player who could be a flex from time to time, but if anything were to happen to Allen or Moore, Odunze's Fantasy expectations would skyrocket.
All the attention on the receivers will probably keep the tight ends open. Schematically, that will work out nicely for Chicago, but the mere fact that the team added to its TE group for the purpose of using multiple players more often is not a good thing for Kmet. Last year he was second on the Bears in targets with 90 -- he'll be lucky to sniff 80 given the additions across the offense. He's not going to get drafted in many leagues; new teammate Everett has barely blipped on the Fantasy radar and will continue to do that.
The run game figures to be as multiple as the pass game, just with fewer contributors. Chicago's addition of D'Andre Swift is an improvement atop their depth chart, but minicamp showed a quartet of runners working with the first-team offense: Swift as the primary RB, Khalil Herbert behind him, Roschon Johnson primarily working in passing-down situations and Travis Homer working behind him.
"Obviously Swift has done a great job with his versatility, Khalil's been working hard and doing his thing, and then Roschon's had a great camp," Waldron said, adding that he's looking forward to seeing them compete in training camp. " ... That running back spot is a hard spot to play. It's a physically demanding position, and I think the benefit of having more than one back that can help your offense, allows you to keep going no matter what the scenario is every week."
If the running back room doesn't change before Week 1, expect Swift to be the only one who might have a shot at 15 touches from game to game. He's struggled to consistently post great numbers over a full season and the other backs in Chicago figure to take work away. Also, Williams was a glorious threat near the goal line at USC and could steal touchdowns from all of the Bears' RBs. I'd hesitate to draft Swift at his current average draft position.
It all points to the Bears offense being good while not relying exclusively on two or three guys every week like it did last year. They have more talent, a better playcaller, a deeper offensive line (yep, that got more multiple as well!) and a legitimate chance to put up numbers from week to week. Just bank on Moore as the only player who could be a regular stud for Fantasy lineups -- anyone else would be a bonus.