Batting Around: True or false for second-half questions, including Pete Alonso's trade odds, Yanks' title shot
Batting Around: True or false for second-half questions, including Pete Alonso's trade odds, Yanks' title shot
Throughout the season the CBS Sports MLB experts will bring you a weekly Batting Around roundtable breaking down pretty much anything. The latest news, a historical question, thoughts about the future of baseball, all sorts of stuff. Last week we debated the GOAT. This week we're going to tackle several true/false questions at the season's midpoint.
Shohei Ohtani will win NL MVP
R.J. Anderson: I'll say true. Voters have never awarded a full-time DH the honors, but that has to change at some point. I do think there's a possibility that voters experience Ohtani fatigue sooner than later. At the same time, unless there's a clear 1B option -- and hey, we have half a season to go, maybe someone will emerge over the coming months -- I think Ohtani takes the crown.
Dayn Perry: I'll go true here. Unfortunate as it is, Mookie Betts' injury will take a big chunk out of his overall value, and that should help Ohtani. There's plenty of season of left, but the NL is a bit light on frontline MVP candidates at the moment. I'll say Ohtani makes history as the first primary DH to win the MVP award.
Matt Snyder: I'll say false and I'm going to back Bryce Harper. He started a bit slow, but since a huge game on April 16, he's been absolutely out of his mind. He plays the field, even if it's just first base, the Phillies have had a better record than the Dodgers pretty much throughout the season and they were not expected to win their division. Between Ohtani being "just" a DH and the Phillies surprisingly taking the NL East, I think that's enough with similar offensive stats for Harper to gain the edge.
Also of note here, only 11 players have ever won three MVPs. If the race is between Harper and Ohtani, we'd be guaranteed a 12th three-time winner, it would just be a matter of if it's Harper or Ohtani.
Mike Axisa: False. I'll take the field over Ohtani, even as great as he's been. Harper is in the early MVP conversation, William Contreras too, and you can't rule out someone having a huge September and carrying his team to a postseason berth with enough momentum to win the award that way. It's happened before. No reason to think it can't happen again. I'm gonna say false here and also chicken out by not saying who will actually win NL MVP.
The Yankees will win the AL East
R.J. Anderson: This is a coin flip for me; both teams have good cases and it's easy to see it breaking either way. I'll go with false, though, just to keep things interesting. I think the Orioles have a greater capacity to upgrade through trades, and I have to believe new owner David Rubenstein is willing to put more resources into the club than his predecessors did. There's no reason, then, for Baltimore to settle for half-measures when it comes to restaffing their rotation over the coming month-plus.
Dayn Perry: Tough call. I have to say false and lean Orioles here based largely upon all that youth and excellence in the lineup. I do have questions about their rotation depth and whether GM Mike Elias will do the work of addressing it leading up to the deadline. That said, Corbin Burnes is a certifiable ace, and Grayson Rodriguez could be primed to take the next step. I think it's a photo finish, but I'll say Baltimore by the thinnest of margins.
Matt Snyder: False. I'm sticking with my preseason pick of the Orioles. They are loaded on offense, have an ace with a potentially very strong No. 2 in Grayson Rodriguez and have a farm system that is so loaded they can grab some rentals. Now, the caveat here is I'm worried Mike Elias is a prospect hugger and won't do what is needed to grab something like the Rangers did last year with Jordan Montgomery and Max Scherzer. The Orioles not only need rotation depth, but also back-end bullpen help. Given that they were swept in the playoffs last year and Corbin Burnes is a free agent after this season, I'm counting on Elias going for it. I am worried, however, that he's too much of a hugger.
Mike Axisa: False. I picked the O's to win the AL East before the season and I see no reason to change my pick. If anything, it feels like the Orioles have underperformed while the Yankees have overperformed. Baltimore's lineup is so much deeper and they can improve their roster from within (via prospect call-ups) in a way the Yankees just can't. Also, the O's have better trade chips and can make a bigger move(s) at the deadline. I can't say I expected the Yankees to be in first place at the season's halfway mark, but I'm sticking to my preseason prediction of the Orioles being atop the top of the division at the end of 162.
The Astros will miss the postseason
R.J. Anderson: False. I know they've had their share of injuries, and they don't have a good farm system to trade from over the coming weeks. Even so, I can't count out the Astros. They still have too much talent, and you can argue their record isn't an accurate reflection of how they've played. (As I write this, they actually have a better run differential than the Mariners.) I don't know if the Astros will have the horses to win the division, but I do think they'll find their way into October once again.
Dayn Perry: False. I don't have a great deal of faith in the Mariners in the AL West or the Royals and Red Sox in the wild-card fray. The Astros have the best run differential in the division, they've shown signs lately of finding their expected level, and the battered rotation is poised to get healthier in the coming weeks. They'll get in, it says here.
Matt Snyder: False, I'm going to stick with the Astros winning the AL West. It's already back down to a workable margin and I just can't buy the Mariners' offense at all. The Rangers are a threat here as well, especially with their pitching starting to get healthier. The Astros offense is great and will soon get Kyle Tucker back and they'll need to add starting pitching at the deadline, but the back end of the bullpen has come together and they've looked really strong of late.
Mike Axisa: I'm with everyone else. This one's false. The Astros have already climbed back into the wild-card race! They're only three back of the Mariners in the loss column with six more head-to-head games to play! I think the Astros get in, either via wild-card or the division title. I never thought Houston was out of it any point this year. Too much talent on the roster to write them off in June. Now they just have to go out and get some pitching.
Pete Alonso will be traded at the deadline
R.J. Anderson: I'll say false under the assumption that the Mets won't get a good enough offer for him to justify making a move if they're even kind of close to a playoff spot. That established, it's a soft no, and I still expect him to be on another roster come Opening Day 2025.
Dayn Perry: False. He's a righty-righty first baseman in his walk year, and that's not something that tends to fetch a huge return, even if you've got Alonso's power. The Mets will let him walk this offseason, but he'll still be a Met after the deadline passes.
Matt Snyder: I'll say true. I'll count on the Mets falling far enough out that David Stearns can justify the move he's wanted to make since taking over this past offseason. He can start to reshape the organization how he sees fit and getting a return for Alonso -- especially when the market will be full of teams wanting a big bat -- is a good place to start. Once he's done that, he can deal a bunch more, such as Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, Harrison Bader, JD Martinez and maybe even Starling Marte. They'll need to be around five games back of the last wild card with several teams in between and that can easily be accomplished in six weeks.
Mike Axisa: False. POBO Davis Stearns has shown he'll trade a popular and impactful player even while in the postseason race (Josh Hader in 2022, specifically), so I don't think he would be afraid to pull the trigger. I just don't think the offers will be so great that trading him will be worth it. The Mets are in the race and better off keeping Alonso and making a run rather than getting one or two good but not great prospects. History has shown Alonso's profile (rental righty slugger limited to first base) doesn't fetch huge trade packages.
A sub-.500 team will make the postseason
R.J. Anderson: I hope not, but it sure looks like a distinct possibility. For the sake of everyone's sanity, I'll say false.
Dayn Perry: I'll go no, but it'll be close. I expect two of the three NL wild-card berths will go to teams with 85 or fewer wins, but both will be barely above the waterline. MLB narrowly avoids an embarrassing consequence of playoff over-expansion.
Matt Snyder: False. As someone who loves chaos, this is unfortunate, but it seems like we're starting to settle into teams barely above .500 in the playoff slots instead of teams under it. Once the trade deadline passes, some of the teams that are fringe contenders now will have traded a few key pieces and will get worse, which means more wins to go around among the contenders. It'll probably be similar to last season with some 84-78 team(s) making it, but I don't think we'll see a losing team get in just yet.
Mike Axisa: Barely false. Two 84-win teams got in last year and I bet an 82- or 83-win team gets in this year. I expect a few clubs on the bubble to sell and thus lose more games in the second half, which in turns pads the win totals for other teams. Also, every team in a postseason spot right now has a winning record. All that early season weirdness when teams three or four games under .500 were sitting in wild-card spots has already begun to sort itself out.