Newcastle could sign "unstoppable" Calvert-Lewin alternative

newcastle could sign

Newcastle could sign "unstoppable" Calvert-Lewin alternative

The 2023/24 season for Newcastle United did not quite go to plan and they failed to follow up their successes of the previous campaign. In 2022/23, the club finished fourth to qualify for the Champions League after a long absence, although their European fairytale did not work out, nor did their Premier League exploits.

In the Champions League, Eddie Howe’s side finished rock bottom in Group F, dubbed by many the Group of Death. They went up against Italian giants AC Milan, French champions PSG and eventual runners-up Borussia Dortmund. The Magpies got a respectable five points, but ultimately went out at the hands of Milan.

They failed to qualify for Europe via their finish in the Premier League too, although it was heartbreaking for the Toon Army.

Their seventh-place finish was a respectable effort, and they were in the Europa Conference League come the final day of the season. That is until Manchester United’s FA Cup victory, which qualified the Red Devils for Europa League football, knocking Chelsea down in the next competition and Newcastle out of Europe altogether.

The Magpies will be hoping to bolster their squad this summer as they hope to qualify for Europe again. With that in mind, they have been linked with one man who could enhance their attacking quality.

Newcastle target Bundesliga striker

The player in question here is Stuttgart and Guinea striker Serhou Guirassy. The 28-year-old has impressed for Stuttgart in a memorable campaign last season, and could well depart the club as a result this summer.

In fact, according to reports, via Chronicle Live, Newcastle have been 'monitoring the striker', after he told Stuttgart that he wants to leave this summer. This has put Newcastle, and several other clubs in Europe, on high alter with the view of a potential transfer.

The competition to sign Guirassy is strong, and Newcastle will do well to win the race for his signature. They will have to go up against fellow Premier League side and back-to-back runners-up Arsenal, as well as two of their old Champions League foes from last season, Milan and Dortmund.

In terms of a transfer fee, Newcastle, or indeed any of the other interested parties, will have to pay a small release clause to sign the player. The clause in his contract is worth just £15m, which was confirmed by reputable journalist Fabrizio Romano as recently as May.

Why Guirassy would be a good signing

The 28-year-old has a stellar season for Stuttgart in 2023/24. He averaged one goal every game, scoring 28 goals in 28 games, as well as bagging two in two games in the DFB Pokal.

Harry Kane was the only player with more Bundesliga goals, with Lois Openda of RB Leipzig the only other play to score more than 20, with 24 to his name. Football scout Antonio Mango described Guirassy as “unstoppable” for a reason.

The biggest concern with Guirassy is the fact that he overachieved his expected goals so much. According to Fbref, the Guinean striker outscored his 20.8xG by 7.2 goals, the most in the Bundesliga and the fifth-most in Europe’s big five leagues.

Biggest xG overachievers in Europe's big 5 leagues 2023/24

Player

Goals

xG

Goals minus xG

Alexander Sorloth

23

12.3

+10.7

Phil Foden

19

10.3

+8.7

Jude Bellingham

19

11.1

+7.9

Alexander Lacazette

19

11.4

+7.6

Serhou Guirassy

28

20.8

+7.2

Stats from Fbref

The reason this could be an issue is because an overperformance on expected goals is hard to maintain over a long time. After all, you are scoring tough chances, which is not always easy. It is impressive that Guinean has managed to do so for the entirety of the season, but there is no guarantee he would maintain this rate every week for a sustained period.

Should Newcastle decide to sign Guirassy, he would be a great alternative option to Dominic Calvert-Lewin. The Magpies were said to be interested in signing the Everton striker recently but pulled out of a deal because the quoted £40m was too expensive.

Guirassy offers a cheaper alternative, over half of the price, and still brings goals to this Newcastle side. His 28 goals in the Bundesliga last season were far more than the seven in 32 games Calvert-Lewin scored for the Toffees.

Should the Magpies win the race for the 28-year-old marksman, he would bring goals despite his overachievement of expected goals and also pose a cheaper alternative to Calvert-Lewin which they can reinvest in the squad elsewhere to strengthen ahead of next season. It certainly seems like a smart piece of business for Newcastle to do.

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