How should the Oilers approach Draisaitl’s extension, upcoming UFAs?

27/06/2024

EDMONTON — For many, many years, Edmonton was like Winnipeg, Calgary or Ottawa. Teams in cities that a free agent could always find an excuse — the facilities, the weather, the prospects of winning a Stanley Cup — to choose some other team with which to sign.

Today, Edmonton has the best player in the world, another in the Top 3 or 4, and one of the top two arena facilities (with Detroit) in the National Hockey League. After nine playoff series in three years and a Game 7 loss on Monday, bookmakers will slot the Oilers at either No. 1 or 2 when the odds come out for the 2025 Stanley Cup.

It doesn’t mean Edmonton is destined to win it all next spring. It does mean, however, that outside of cap-strapped Florida, there isn’t a single team that a free agent can look at and definitively say, “I have a better shot at winning a Cup in City X than I would in Edmonton.”

As exit interviews take place, and the pall of losing Game 7 of the Final slowly lifts, Edmonton has seven unrestricted free agents to deal with. And one pending UFA — Leon Draisaitl — who has a year left on his contract but is bigger than all the rest.

Here’s our take on what lies ahead:

Leon Draisaitl

Draisaitl will get $13 million or more wherever he goes. What he wants more than anything else is to win a Cup.

He can’t find a closer friend or better hockey player to chase that down with than Connor McDavid, and as we stated above, there isn’t a team out there with markedly better prospects of winning. We can’t think of a reason why Draisaitl wouldn’t re-sign in Edmonton.

Can he?

“I guess not. If you phrase it that way,” he said.

Draisaitl wouldn’t come out and tell us what he’s thinking, so we’ll speculate.

If I’m his agent Andrew Scott, and I’ve decided that Draisaitl is worth, say, 13 or 14 percent of the cap, don’t I need to know what the cap is going to be set at in 2025-26 before we sign? If the plan is for McDavid and Draisaitl to each take a little less to stay together for three or four more years, do I not require a promise from the McDavid camp that they’ll sign one year later in the same spirit that I’m signing in today?

My prediction: Draisaitl signs a four-year, $55 million deal with Edmonton. Announcement comes before Christmas.

Adam Henrique

Henrique is the third-line centre the Oilers haven’t had since Mike Peca. He’s made nearly $50 million in his career, and now he’s 34 years old. He has never won a Cup in 912 games played.

His AAV was $5.8 million last year. That goes down wherever he signs, but likely the least money he’ll make is in Edmonton.

Will he take $3.5 million to stay? That’s an honest number for a top third-line centre.

“I don’t think money is the number one thing for me at this point in my career,” he said.

Prediction: This one is tough. We’ll say he stays.

Warren Foegele

Foegele had his first 20-goal season, and at 28 becomes a UFA for the first time in his career. He’s big, he’s fast, and he’s been in the playoffs every year of his NHL career.

Prediction: The offers elsewhere will be too good to remain an Oiler.

Mattias Janmark

As great as Janmark was in the playoffs, he is a 31-year-old coming off a four-goal, 12-point season.

He’s signed nothing but one-year deals in his career — seven of them — and made $1 million last season.

Prediction: Janmark re-signs. Two years, with a $1.15 million AAV.

Connor Brown

Brown became a valued penalty killer and third-line winger — not what he was supposed to be when he arrived, but really valuable nonetheless.

No chance he recreates the $4 million AAV he had this season, but of all the players here, Brown will be most tempted by outside offers that are higher than Edmonton can afford.

Prediction: Brown signs elsewhere.

Vincent Desharnais

This guy was never supposed to even play in the NHL. He is 28, and his career earnings are $513,243.

Edmonton will attempt to trade Cody Ceci, who has one more year left at $3.25 million, to free space for Desharnais. Philip Broberg (RFA) will step into the lineup full-time next season.

Desharnais will stay in Edmonton for the same money being offered elsewhere, but he’d be crazy to take less, with his age and prior earnings.

Prediction: Ceci gets moved, Desharnais signs a three-year, $5.25 million deal.

Corey Perry and Sam Carrick

Both are $900,000 players. So the question becomes, do you have two better fourth-liners to sign instead?

Carrick is tough and wins draws. But with 37-year-old Derek Ryan signed, do you need someone younger?

Perry is too slow for playoffs, but we don’t know if the captain doesn’t tell his GM that he’d love to have Perry back.

Prediction: Only one signs. Take your pick.

Cal Pickard

I sign him all day at $1 million, especially once the Oilers buy out Jack Campbell. Will Pickard go home to Winnipeg, where the Jets are about to lose Laurent Brossoit?

Prediction: Pickard stays. Two years, $2.25 million.

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