Here’s who will win the first presidential debate
Every pundit across these United States is fielding the same question right now: Who is going to win Thursday night’s debate?
The correct answer isn’t necessarily the most satisfying.
It’s not “Joe Biden” or “Donald Trump” but this: whoever manages to avoid looking like — and is able to paint his opponent as — this election cycle’s “chaos candidate.”
Every pundit across these United States is fielding the same question right now: Who is going to win Thursday night’s debate? AP
For many years now, American voters have doggedly rejected candidates who carry excess baggage and drama with them.
One need look no further back in time than Tuesday night for proof of this political truth; Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) spent his time in office pulling fire alarms and carrying water for Hamas, and it cost him his job.
Consider also the 2022 midterms, when the members of the Addams family Republicans enlisted to represent them in key races across the country all lost.
Back in 2016, Trump’s bravado struck many as refreshing, especially in comparison with the charmless Hillary Clinton.
But both Trump and the left’s antics have worn on the American people, leaving them craving calm above all else.
Back in 2016, Trump’s bravado struck many as refreshing, especially in comparison with the charmless Hillary Clinton. AP
In 2020, Biden — aided by the pandemic and Trump’s lack of personal discipline — was able to credibly make the case that his election would mark a return to normalcy.
This time, he will have to make the same case but under more difficult circumstances.
Working in his favor is his opponent.
Trump’s post-election tantrum last time around culminated in the Capitol riot, a national disgrace that lives on as one of the most enduring images of our turbulent political era.
Trump’s post-election tantrum last time around culminated in the Capitol riot, a national disgrace that lives on as one of the most enduring images of our turbulent political era. AFP via Getty Images
The events of Jan. 6, Trump’s criminal prosecution for them and his retention of documents after leaving office remain electoral liabilities for the presumptive Republican nominee.
And some of Trump’s most memorable recent rhetoric — including promises of “revenge” for his enemies and a call for the “termination” of the Constitution — makes for useful ammunition for Biden.
It doesn’t matter that any of that actually coming to pass is unlikely: Trump’s ravings (sometimes fairly and sometimes unfairly) feed into ceaseless news cycles that send your average voter reaching for a stiff drink.
Biden’s success in tarring his opponent as the chaos candidate hinges on his ability to remind Americans of the relief they felt when Trump left office in January 2021.
And some of Trump’s most memorable recent rhetoric makes for useful ammunition for Biden. Getty Images
Trump’s case will be more substantive.
Temperamentally, Biden may be more moderate, but his policy choices have wreaked havoc over the course of his term in office.
The ongoing migration crisis was manufactured by the president and the open-border enthusiasts who staff his administration.
Post-pandemic inflation was worsened by the profligate spending of a unified Democratic government.
Temperamentally, Biden may be more moderate, but his policy choices have wreaked havoc over the course of his term in office. Getty Images
America’s enemies in Russia and the Middle East launched wars on his watch.
And his response has been, inexplicably, to hamstring our allies’ responses to them.
There is no shortage of material for Trump to work with Thursday night; Biden has made sure of that.
Equally as important as what the candidates say, though, is the way they say it.
In 2020, Trump did considerable harm to his campaign by attempting to dominate the stage by shouting over his opponent and moderator Chris Wallace during the first showdown.
There is no shortage of material for Trump to work with Thursday night; Biden has made sure of that. Jack Gruber-USA TODAY
He’s never going to be a linear, prosecutorial debater, but a little bit of self-restraint and message discipline would go a long way.
If Trump appears relatively chastened on screen, his Truth Social rants can only do so much damage.
For President Biden, the challenge is different.
The country is rightly concerned he is no longer fit for office.
If Trump appears relatively chastened on screen, his Truth Social rants can only do so much damage. Andrew Nelles / USA TODAY NETWORK
After all, the man can’t recall when he served as vice president.
Biden is the grandpa whose family is considering taking the keys away, but the car he’s driving is that of the executive branch — and the family’s strapped in the back seat for at least the next six months.
Delivering crisp and even forceful answers Thursday would go a long way toward mitigating this debilitating image issue.
After eight years of taking Americans on a wild rollercoaster ride, Joe Biden and Donald Trump’s task at their first debate is to convince them they’re uniquely suited to slow it down.
Good luck to them both.