SEC Football 2024 Predictions

26/06/2024

The SEC is bigger and better than ever for the 2024 college football season. Texas and Oklahoma join to form a 16-team league, adding even more depth and big-time programs to the nation's No. 1 conference. The arrival of the Longhorns and Sooners isn't the only storyline surrounding the SEC, as Alabama begins life after Nick Saban and Georgia begins its quest for a third national title in four seasons.

The intrigue in the SEC extends to Tennessee, LSU, and Missouri looking to earn a trip to the CFB Playoff, along with Ole Miss poised for a historic season in '24. Texas A&M is a team to watch under new coach Mike Elko, while Auburn and Florida aim to rebound after disappointing in '23. Kentucky and South Carolina are headlined by two breakout quarterbacks in the next tier, while Arkansas, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt round out the predicted 16.

How does Athlon Sports project the SEC for 2024? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 16 teams in SEC for this fall:

SEC 2024 Team Previews: Alabama | Auburn | Arkansas | Florida | Georgia

South Carolina | Tennessee | Texas | Texas A&M | Vanderbilt

SEC Football 2024 Predictions

Georgia QB Carson Beck © Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

SEC Championship Prediction: Georgia over Texas

1. Georgia

Georgia's quest for a three-peat fell short in 2023, but coach Kirby Smart's team is loaded and the favorite for another run at the title this fall.

Quarterback Carson Beck returns after a standout debut (3,941 passing yards and 24 TDs) and is set to work behind a standout offensive line that includes Athlon Sports' All-Americans in tackle Earnest Greene III and guard Tate Ratledge. The Bulldogs added an impact transfer running back in Trevor Etienne from Florida, while Colbie Young (Miami) and London Humphreys (Vanderbilt) add depth to a receiving corps already set to feature Dillon Bell, Dominic Lovett, and RaRa Thomas.

As usual, expect Georgia's defense to be among the best in college football. Smart and coordinator Glenn Schumann return six starters, including safety Malaki Starks, edge rusher Mykel Williams, and linebacker Smael Mondon. The Bulldogs will need a few new faces to emerge in the secondary and have room to improve against the run after giving up 113.6 rushing yards a game (up from 77 a contest in '23).

2. Texas

Coach Steve Sarkisian's turnaround in Austin was completed with a 12-win season and trip to the CFB Playoff last year. The task of winning a national championship only gets harder in the SEC, but the Longhorns are well-equipped to handle this transition.

Quarterback Quinn Ewers returns for his third season under center, while Sarkisian landed four key targets - receivers Isaiah Bond (Alabama), Silas Bolden (Oregon State), and Matthew Golden (Houston) and tight end Amari Niblack (Alabama) - to restock a receiving corps losing AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Rising star running back CJ Baxter also returns, and the line is among the best in college football with four starters returning, including left tackle Kelvin Banks.

Texas doesn't have many glaring areas of concern for its SEC debut, but Sarkisian must restock a defensive line losing standout tackles T'Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy. A couple of transfers could help here, and former UTSA edge rusher Trey Moore can provide an extra boost off the edge. Linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. is on the verge of stardom. The secondary has room to improve after finishing sixth in the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense last year. The continued development of cornerback Malik Muhammad will help, as well as the addition of Clemson transfer Andrew Mukuba at safety.

3. Ole Miss

With 14 returning starters and one of the nation's top portal hauls coming to Oxford, Ole Miss is all in on the '24 season. The Rebels have won double-digit games in two out of the last three years and posted a program record 11 victories last season under coach Lane Kiffin.

A high-powered offense is once again the strength of Kiffin's Ole Miss squad. Quarterback Jaxson Dart returns after averaging 288.7 total yards a game last year and is supported by a standout group of receivers that includes Tre Harris, Jordan Watkins, South Carolina transfer Juice Wells, and tight end Caden Prieskorn. Running back Quinshon Judkins' transfer to Ohio State was a setback, but Kiffin added a couple of backs through the portal and returns Ulysses Bentley IV (540 yards in '23). Three starters are back up front and help is on the way from transfers to boost the depth and competition at the open spots.

An improved defense could be all that stands between Ole Miss and a trip to the SEC Championship Game. Under new coordinator Pete Golding last year, the Rebels showed some slight progress on the stat sheet and could take a massive step forward with the arrival of a handful of key transfers, including linemen Walter Nolen and Princely Umanmielan and linebacker Chris Paul. If the portal additions make as big of an impact as projected, the Rebels could take a significant step forward on this side of the ball in '24.

4. Alabama

Alabama enters 2024 in new territory after Nick Saban's retirement. The Crimson Tide have won double-digit games for 16 consecutive years and made the CFB Playoff eight times since '14. New coach Kalen DeBoer is one of the offseason's top hires, but he's also under a new level of pressure in the SEC.

DeBoer produced one of the nation's top offenses at Washington and has the pieces in place for another high-powered unit in '24. Quarterback Jalen Milroe (35 total touchdowns) had a breakout year last season and can benefit from DeBoer's arrival by developing another step forward in the passing game. Running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes are breakout candidates, and the offensive line is among the best in college football with Washington transfer Parker Brailsford stepping in at center to join left tackle Kadyn Proctor and standout guard Tyler Booker. This unit's biggest concern is at receiver with top targets Jermaine Burton (NFL), Isaiah Bond (transfer to Texas), and tight end Amari Niblack (transfer to Texas) moving on. Germie Bernard - a transfer from Washington - could be the unit's top playmaker.

Defense was an annual strength in Tuscaloosa under Saban but could be the team's biggest concern in '24. New coordinator Kane Wommack will put his stamp on this group and this group doesn't lack for talent to work with. However, the secondary was hit hard by losses and is relying on a couple of transfers - cornerback Domani Jackson (USC) and safety Keon Sabb (Michigan) - to provide instant help. The line should be among the best in the SEC, but Dallas Turner leaves a void off the edge.

5. Missouri

Missouri was the SEC's biggest surprise last season, finishing 11-2 and No. 8 nationally - a big jump from a 17-19 mark in coach Eli Drinkwitz's first three years at the helm. And most importantly for the Tigers, this program isn't a one-year wonder.

A favorable schedule and a high-powered offense is enough for Missouri to make a run at the CFB Playoff. Quarterback Brady Cook (3,317 passing yards and 29 overall TDs) is back after a breakout year, and receiver Luther Burden III is the SEC's top returning player. Burden III isn't the only weapon for Cook at receiver either. Theo Wease, Mookie Cooper, Marquis Johnson, and tight end Brett Norfleet are back to form one of the SEC's top receiving corps. Running back Cody Schrader will be missed, but the transfer tandem of Marcus Carroll (Georgia State) and Nate Noel (Appalachian State) should keep the ground attack performing at a high level behind a line that returns three starters.

With Missouri's defense in transition, the offense will have to carry this team in the early part of '24. Corey Batoon takes over as play-caller after Blake Baker was hired at LSU and just five starters are back from a unit that held teams to 20.8 points a contest last year. The secondary was hit especially hard by departures, but safety Daylan Carnell returns on the back end, and Johnny Walker Jr. and Kristian Williams form a solid foundation up front. The Tigers were active in the portal for help, and transfers should play right away at all three levels.

6. LSU

LSU has won 10 games in back-to-back seasons under coach Brian Kelly, but the program enters a crucial '24 campaign after a staff reset. The Tigers lost offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock to Notre Dame, prompting Kelly to promote Joe Sloan to play-caller. On the defensive side, change was needed after this unit struggled mightily in '23. Kelly hit a home run with the changes though, landing Blake Baker from Missouri to call plays and former Texas assistant Bo Davis to coach the defensive line.

Replicating last year's offensive production (No. 1 nationally in scoring offense) won't be easy with quarterback Jayden Daniels and receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas off to the NFL. However, the cupboard is far from bare for Sloan. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is a rising star and is poised for a breakout year. Kyren Lacy, CJ Daniels, Zavion Thomas, Chris Hilton, and Aaron Anderson provide a strong foundation at receiver. Also, the line could be the best in college football with Emery Jones and Will Campbell back to anchor the tackle spots. With Daniels off to the NFL, the Tigers need to get more production out of their backs to jumpstart the rushing attack.

Baker inherits a defense that surrendered 33 points and 6.3 yards a snap in SEC play last season. The staff changes should pay off, but this unit needs more overall difference makers to join linebacker Harold Perkins and safety Major Burns. The line was the biggest question mark entering spring practice and did not land one of the top-rated tackles in the portal.

7. Tennessee

Tennessee took a small step back in 2023 with a 9-4 record after the program won 11 games the previous year. However, the one-season regression isn't a sign of things to come, as the Volunteers are poised to contend for a CFB Playoff spot this fall.

If Tennessee is going to challenge for a spot in the top 10 and make the CFB Playoff, it's likely to be on the right arm of quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The sophomore showcased his upside in limited time and flashed the five-star potential in a bowl start against Iowa. Iamaleava has plenty of weapons to throw to, including Squirrel White, Bru McCoy and Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell. Running back Dylan Sampson is poised for a breakout year, and the addition of LSU transfer Lance Heard at left tackle should transform the offensive line into one of the best in the SEC.

Assuming Tennessee's offense resumes its high-scoring ways in '24 after averaging only 24.4 points a game in SEC play last year, the defense doesn't need to be elite. Instead, it just needs to get timely stops and find ways to get the ball back to Heupel's offense with turnovers. End James Pearce is one of the nation's top returning players after recording 10 sacks last fall and is joined by experienced veterans in Bryson Eason, Omari Thomas, and Omarr Norman-Lott to form a standout front. The return of Keenan Pili from injury boosts the linebacker unit, but the secondary lost several key contributors from last season and remains a major concern in '24.

8. Oklahoma

With a schedule that features six teams projected to finish in the top 25, Oklahoma's debut in the SEC won't be an easy one. However, the Sooners improved in coach Brent Venables' second year, going from six wins in '22 to 10 last fall and return a strong core of talent to help navigate the team's transition to the nation's No. 1 conference.

Venables and new defensive coordinator Zac Alley have six returning starters to work with on a defense that allowed only 5.4 yards per snap last fall. Linebacker Danny Stutsman - a preseason All-American by Athlon Sports - is the headliner, with safety Billy Bowman back to anchor a secondary that paced the Big 12 in pass efficiency defense last year. The addition of TCU transfer tackle Damonic Williams was a key post-spring pickup to solidify a front that could be more consistent and use a better pass rush in '24.

Oklahoma led the Big 12 in scoring (41.7 points a game last year) but will be challenged to match that total in the SEC. This unit is under the direction of new coordinator Seth Littrell after Jeff Lebby left to take the head-coaching job at Mississippi State and has a new rising star quarterback in Jackson Arnold to build around. A receiving corps led by Deion Burks and Nic Anderson should be among the best in college football, and running back Gavin Sawchuk showcased his potential late in the '23 campaign after struggling with injuries. However, this unit has one major question mark: The offensive line. All five starters from last year are gone and a couple of portal additions - Branson Hickman (SMU) and Febechi Nwaiwu (North Texas) will be counted upon to start right away.

9. Texas A&M

New coach Mike Elko could be exactly what Texas A&M needs to help this program reach its potential in the new 16-team SEC. Duke went 5-18 prior to Elko's arrival in '22 but showed marked improvement (16-9) over the next two years. How fast can Elko turn things around in College Station?

Although Texas A&M has disappointed in recent years, talent certainly isn't the issue for this team. Elko regains the services of quarterback Conner Weigman after he missed most of '23 due to injury, and the offense doesn't lack for skill talent with the return of running back Rueben Owens and receivers Moose Muhammad III. The line needs to take a step forward with three returning starters, but first-year assistant Adam Cushing should get more out of this group than the previous staff.

Expect Elko's impact to also show right away on defense. The Aggies gave up only 23.1 points a game in SEC contests last year but also struggled against teams with a winning record (34.2 a contest allowed). The strength of this group rests up front. Purdue transfer Nic Scourton is poised to create havoc off the edge, with Shemar Turner, DJ Hicks, and Shemar Stewart rounding out one of the SEC's top lines. Linebacker Taurean York is a rising star but standout Edgerrin Cooper will be missed. The secondary struggled last season, but safety Bryce Anderson is an emerging playmaker, and transfers Will Lee II (Kansas State) and Dezz Ricks (Alabama) should help right away at cornerback.

10. Auburn

Auburn took a step forward in coach Hugh Freeze's first season with a six-win campaign and a trip to a bowl after back-to-back losing records under former coach Bryan Harsin. However, the Tigers also ended '23 with a thud, losing to New Mexico State, Alabama, and Maryland (Music City Bowl) in disappointing fashion.

The good news for the Tigers: The talent level is on the rise entering '24. Freshman receiver Cam Coleman fills a major position of need, and he's joined by a pair of transfers in Keandre Lambert-Smith (Penn State) and Robert Lewis (Georgia State) to jumpstart a receiving corps that struggled mightily last fall. Quarterback Payton Thorne had an up-and-down debut on the Plains in '23, but the Michigan State transfer should be more comfortable in his second season and could benefit from Freeze taking over the play-calling duties. Running back Jarquez Hunter is one of the best in the SEC and the line returns three starters.

New defensive coordinator DJ Durkin inherits five returning starters, but this unit has the pieces in place to improve on last year's performance (holding SEC teams to 24.4 points a game last year). Edge linemen Jalen McLeod and Keldric Faulk are rising stars, while Freeze added depth from the portal to solidify the interior of the line. Linebacker Eugene Asante anchors the second level, and cornerback Keionte Scott headlines a secondary featuring four new starters in '24.

11. Florida

After an 11-14 start to his tenure in Gainesville, coach Billy Napier enters a crucial third season at the helm. However, making progress and returning to a bowl after a five-win campaign last year won't be easy with Florida facing one of the nation's most difficult schedules.

If the Gators exceed expectations in '24, it's likely to be on the strength of their offense. Quarterback Graham Mertz had a surprising debut last year, throwing for 2,903 yards and 20 touchdowns and just three picks in 11 starts. The supporting cast is strong thanks to the return of running back Montrell Johnson, breakout candidate Eugene Wilson III at receiver, and three starters along the offensive line.

Florida's defense struggled mightily in '23. The Gators allowed 33.6 points a game in SEC contests and surrendered nearly 200 rushing yards a contest in conference action last year. Napier hired veteran coach Ron Roberts to oversee the defense, but second-year coordinator Austin Armstrong will retain play-calling duties. A handful of transfers - especially Penn defensive lineman Joey Slackman and former South Carolina linebacker Pup Howard - and a couple of impact freshmen (linebacker Myles Graham and LJ McCray) provide optimism for improvement. The Gators need cornerback Jason Marshall to rebound after an up-and-down season and must create more havoc at the line of scrimmage (just 22 sacks last year).

12. Kentucky

After back-to-back seven-win seasons, Kentucky hopes a few key transfer additions and an experienced defense are enough to move up the SEC pecking order. Without divisions, the annual slate could get a little tougher for the Wildcats, but coach Mark Stoops' squad caught a break with swing games against South Carolina, Auburn, and Louisville in Lexington for '24.

Nine starters are back on a defense that struggled at times in SEC play (29.1 points a game in conference action) and had issues against the pass. However, this unit could take a step forward with the returning production, as Deone Walker is one of the SEC's top linemen, and the linebacker unit could be among the best in college football with the arrival of Georgia transfer Jamon Dumas-Johnson to join J.J. Weaver and D'Eryk Jackson. Cornerback Maxwell Hairston is a standout on the outside, but the pass defense has to get a lot better in '24 (ninth in the SEC in pass efficiency defense '23).

Two newcomers to Lexington will decide just how high the offense can climb in '24. New play-caller Bush Hamdan arrives after directing Boise State's offense to an average of 32.1 points a game last season and is tasked with helping Georgia transfer QB Brock Vandagriff develop in '24. Vandagriff's progression is crucial to Kentucky's '24 hopes, as the former Bulldog has limited experience but brings significant upside to the offense. Vandagriff's transition into the starting role will be eased by the return of standout receivers Barion Brown and Dane Key, along with a line that brings back four starters. Ohio State transfer Chip Trayanum will help to fill the big shoes left behind by Ray Davis at running back.

13. South Carolina

Injuries and a tough schedule last year prevented South Carolina from building off a 8-5 finish in '22. Coach Shane Beamer isn't on the hot seat, but the '24 campaign is crucial to show the program can get back on track.

Improving an offense that averaged only 5.5 yards a play would help the Gamecocks' chances of returning to the postseason this fall. Sophomore quarterback LaNorris Sellers is short on experience but showcased intriguing potential last year in limited time and is a breakout candidate in '24. He's joined in the backfield by former 1,000-yard rusher in Arkansas transfer running back Rocket Sanders, and the receiving corps got a boost with the arrival of portal additions Jared Brown (Coastal Carolina), Gage Larvadain (Miami, Ohio), and Ahmari Huggins-Bruce (Louisville). The development of the offensive line holds the key to success for South Carolina's offense. This unit was plagued by injuries and youth last year, allowing 41 sacks and struggling to open up holes in the ground game.

After struggling through the first two months of the season, South Carolina's defense - helped in part by a switch to a 3-3-5 scheme - showed progress in November. Building on that progression is within reach, especially with portal additions in end Kyle Kennard (Georgia Tech) and Gilber Edmond (Florida State), linebacker Demetrius Knight (Charlotte) and freshman defensive lineman Dylan Stewart providing a boost of talent and depth. Safety Nick Emmanwori and linebacker Debo Williams are back to anchor the next levels of this defense in '24.

14. Arkansas

It's a make or break year for coach Sam Pittman after the Razorbacks went 4-8 in '23. Since going 9-4 overall and 4-4 in the SEC in '21, Arkansas is 11-14 overall and just 4-12 in the conference.

The path to beating preseason expectations starts with an intriguing offense. The return of former head coach Bobby Petrino is one of the top coordinator hires of the offseason, and Boise State transfer quarterback Taylen Green impressed in the spring. The top five statistical receivers are back from '23, and the return of tight end Luke Hasz after an injury-shortened debut last fall is a huge boost. Additionally, Utah transfer running back Ja'Quinden Jackson should be an impact transfer in the backfield. The offensive line allowed 47 sacks and the Hogs averaged only 3.5 yards a carry last season. Three transfers - Addison Nichols (Tennessee), Keyshawn Blackstock (Michigan State), and Fernando Carmona (San Jose State - will help but big question marks remain here.

The defense showed signs of progress early under new coordinator Travis Williams last season but faded in November by allowing over 36 points in three of the last four contests. Building on last year's progress is attainable, especially with end Landon Jackson (a preseason Athlon Sports All-American) back, along with Eric Gregory and Cameron Ball in the trenches. Georgia transfer Xavian Sorey is a promising addition at linebacker, while the secondary returns rising star cornerback Jaylon Braxton and veterans in Hudson Clark and Jayden Johnson.

15. Mississippi State

New coach Jeff Lebby inherits a roster with just two starters back and the least returning production (offense and defense) in the SEC. With the roster dealing with a significant amount of transition, the Bulldogs are essentially in a Year 0 situation. However, Lebby's track record as a coordinator in producing high-powered offenses gives this team a chance to get bowl eligible in '24.

Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen was sharp in the spring, and Lebby has a few talented weapons to deploy in transfers receiver Kelly Akharaiyi (UTEP), tight end Seydou Traore (Colorado/Arkansas State), and running back Davon Booth (Utah State). Also, a couple of portal additions solidify a line replacing all five starters from last season.

Mississippi State's defense returns just two starters - lineman De'Monte Russell and safety Corey Ellington - that allowed 30 points a game in SEC play last year. Key standouts in linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson finished their eligibility, but Lebby did add a few pieces from the portal to help the transition. This unit is likely to be a work in progress under new co-coordinators Coleman Hutzler and Matt Barnes in '24.

16. Vanderbilt

Although patience is needed at Vanderbilt, the pressure is starting to rise on fourth-year coach Clark Lea. The Commodores have posted two 0-8 seasons in SEC play under Lea's watch and are just 9-27 overall since '21. Additionally, Vanderbilt was largely uncompetitive in conference action last year and enters '24 on a 10-game losing streak.

The recent trend line is concerning for Lea, but there are some reasons for optimism in '24. A revamped offensive staff that includes former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill as an off-field assistant and new play-caller Tim Beck (also from New Mexico State) should help a unit that averaged only 16.9 points in SEC play last season. The New Mexico State connections don't end with Kill and Beck, as Lea landed quarterback transfer Diego Pavia (259.7 total yards a game in '23) to battle former Utah signal-caller Nate Johnson for the starting nod. Sophomore running back Sedrick Alexander is promising but question marks remain with a revamped receiving corps and an offensive line that struggled last year.

Vanderbilt has ranked last in the SEC in points allowed in all three seasons of Lea's tenure but change is coming in '24. Lea is taking over the defensive play-calling duties and brought in seven transfers to provide a boost to the overall talent and depth. Linebacker Langston Patterson (74 tackles) is an Athlon Sports All-SEC selection for 2024, and the secondary has a couple of intriguing pieces back in CJ Taylor and De'Rickey Wright. This unit needs more difference makers in the trenches and must do a better job against the run (189.3 yards a game allowed in SEC play last season).

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.