Is Market Set For A Rally After Hitting Record Highs, Or Is a Correction Expected? | Closing Trades

Hello, good afternoon. You're watching closing trades on ET Now and it's a good closing trade that we have at our hands because the Nifty is very close to that 24,000 mark, less than 150 points away, of course, at record high levels for the for the Nifty, the Sensex as well as Bank Nifty, which is powering ahead. In fact, the Bank Nifty very close to that mark of 53,000, less than 100 points away from that mark. The broader markets are a little bit more somber as compared to the frontline index, but you can't complain much because there are individual pockets that are actually outperforming. Take a look at the cement pack today, cementing gains as we speak, with India cement being high by around 15%. JK, Ultratech, Ramco, all of these stocks are buzzing around. You also have a lot of, you know, telecom stocks which are in focus. So Vodafone Idea suddenly spiked 6%. You have Bharati Airtel, which is up 3 1/2 percent in the trading session. And Reliance, that heavyweight has also managed to move around 3% in the trading session. So why not begin the discussion on telecom with an expert right up on the show? Gaurav Malhotra, the Executive director at Axis Capital joins us on the show. Gaurav, Hi, good to be speaking with you. The incremental news for today, of course, is the telecom auctions that got done happened fairly quickly, less than 1 1/2 days to be honest, and the overall amount was close to 11,340 crores. Was this largely on expected lines or you're a bit disappointed by the muted participation? Yeah, hi. So see we we were expecting it to be muted, right, Because the operators have any which is spent and bid for 5G spectrum in 2022. Most of the spectrum is they wanted this spectrum option was more related to the spectrum which is coming up for renewal for especially for Bharti and Vodafone Idea, which was administered say about 20 years back and it needed to be renewed. So most of or quite a bit of the bidding would have been related to that. And then there is something incremental which operators would have probably before we are still awaiting the details. So on the whole, it was along more or less along expected lines. Point to ask you the way in the last 10 minutes of you know the market, the way Vodafone, Bharti have darted, is it just a spectrum or is there anything else brewing there? And what do you make of valuations of these two? So see in terms of there is always an expectation of terrified post post elections, right. So I think so maybe the street was expecting that. Now this another event is sort of behind us and maybe now the tariff hike is more imminent. Our house view has been that, you know, anytime in the next one to two months, you should expect some tariff hike. Where we differ from the street is that, you know, the street is expecting around 2 hikes across two years, around 15% each. We, we don't expect two consecutive hikes, but we do expect one larger hike which will happen. So around say 25% in terms of valuation. See, these stocks have moved up. They are sort of fading a little bit ahead of their long term averages, but I think that the Street is generally quite, quite positively viewing this whole tariff increase. Do note that you know the last major increase happened in 2021. So it's almost been three years since the last increase has happened. But you know given just back of the envelope calculations, Gaurav, on how much the tariff hike is going to be given the previous hikes which have been undertaken, who do you think is going to win the ARPU race? Because as per what we understand it will be Bharti once again, see the, the general view is that whichever operator has the more premium subscribers typically will have a better absorption. But we, our analysis actually showed if you look at the last two increases, tariff increases for both RT and GO, the tariff transmission from the tariff to R2 transmission was almost similar around 6065%. So, so I don't think so there is much difference in, you know, this whole transmission and and who will sort of benefit more or less transmission as far as Jio is concerned and Airtel as well. But what about Vodafone because in the last couple of hike cycles, Vodafone didn't benefit as much as the other incumbents Right now with the balance sheet situation looking better, they doubling into the 5G as well. Do you see this time around to be different for Vodafone versus the earlier cycles? Yeah. So you know, we don't have a formal view on Vodafone. So I would sort of refrain from, you know, giving a giving a view on the name Bharatiya Jio specifically, what is your call? What's the target price? And do you think the tariff hike which has been talked about since a long while now, because post election everybody was discussing that, is it factored in the price already? Obviously, obviously part of some part of the tariff increases obviously absorbed and reflected in the, the, the share prices of Party and Reliance. So our target price of party is 1534 for Reliance is 35 or one two. And, and you know, I think so around 1515% ish hike, 15 to 20% hike is, is sort of getting priced in into the stocks as as we speak. Sort of great to have you on the show. Thank you so much for taking the time and speaking with us today. OK, let's move on. Let's bring on board our second set of experts. We've got Sandeep Sabharwal joining in on the show, Shrikant Chauhan, Naresh Mirani as well. Join in on the technicals. Sandeep, just afternoon. Firstly, let's pick it up from where we left it off with Gaurav. Just wanted to understand, what are you making of the telecom stocks right now? And do you think much of the positive is already in the price? Obviously some part of it is in the price because the move in the stock prices have happened this without any tariff cycle in a way. So it's all in anticipation that now the competitive intensity will reduce and tariff cycles will play out. And that's also evident now because once tariff started to stop going down and G also started focusing on is not still focusing I would say on higher profitability, but maintaining market share. So we will see some impact on profitability. Tariff hikes actually play out now the current prices building, I would say 5060% of the tariff hike possibility already. But when tariff site actually start, then I think it will help us stop prices sustainable, which is the best play in telecom. There are like 3 1/2 stocks there either Reliance such as housing Jio in a way Vodafone, the latest love of the market, Bharti or Indus Towers and you forgetting Bharti Hexa form as well. Oh yes, Oh yes, that's true. So so the best play is Bharti only because that's the pureplay which has profits, which has a decent balance sheet and which has market share and still gaining market share. Vodafone Idea is more about hope now. The hope is that at some stage they will make profits. I'm very doubtful that one with their current balance sheet etcetera, the shareholders will ever get a ₹1.00 EPS also from this company. So I don't right now because of the speculative up move, the moves are happening. The other thing is that in any industry up cycle, the weakest player tends to benefit the most in terms of percentage gains because there because they were in a bad shape. So the incremental improvements are much more than the company which are always already in a good shape. So I think that's one factor working forward, that's the view. And Vodafone Idea clearly inching towards that ₹20 mark. Remember, just a few months ago it was just a single digit stock. So from there, there has been that massive recovery that has taken place on that one. But the big star right now is Reliance with that 3% gain and then Bharti Airtel 2 chugging along. That was the discussion on the telecom sector. But let's put the spotlight right now and what's happening with the market itself. We have Shrikanth Sohan also joining us on the show. Shrikanth High. What's the next level to watch out for is 24,000 something which is likely to happen in this expiry itself? Good afternoon. Yeah, I think see like the markets are like it was like consolidating below the levels of 23,700 for almost 3-4 days and after crossing this now we are again witnessing broad based rally in the market. So now based on option statistics, the next level to watch out for is 24,000. But if we just like extend the overall count based on extensions, then the next level to watch out for will be somewhere close to 24,200 levels. So I am of the view that in case if there is any correction because of any reason close to 23,700 then we should look for adding some positions. But at these levels, I think it is better to ride long term rates up to at least 24,000 levels. Banknet is consolidating but for Banknet also, we are of the view that it is heading for at least 53,500 sort of levels in next one or two days. So that's about the Nifty. But Nourish, what's the view on Bank Nifty because that was the big * performer of the trading session yesterday. Today it's a bit soft but can't really complain with the 300 point move and very close to 53,000. So that's been the view for Bank Nifty like once we cross 52,000, it gets into momentum. Now we are getting towards 53,000. The best way to write this trend is to keep shifting. The stop loss is higher, so now the stop loss shifts to around 52,300. On the Bank Nifty, the structure is positive. We are yet to see a big breakout happen on HDFC Bank, which is where 1740 has been an all time high, tested 68 times over the last three years. If that happens, it gives you a big trigger in terms of further upside. So the structure is positive, momentum is positive, keeper tailings stop loss and write on and the view remains same. Private banks look better than PSU banks and we have seen that continue. Now if that was not enough, we have got another kicker in terms of Reliance Industries. That stock is coming closer to three thousand 3030 which is the previous all time high and that has been tested for a few times in the last 3-4 months. If that breaks out, you have almost another 10% of the Nifty weight breaking out. So structurally we are looking at even the Nifty getting into a momentum phase. The Nifty may look a little overbought, but a lot of large heavyweights are actually breaking out right now. There was a very interesting commentary coming in from RBI governor last evening from anniversary, Bombay Chambers 188 anniversary saying that now India is at a cusp of structural shift in the growth trajectory and he's saying that we are. There's a very strong case of 8% vicinity growth on a sustained basis. If that happens, coupled with fiscal prudence and moderate inflation, can the corporate earnings get a fresh boost for the market? Also, 8% sustainable growth is possible only if tax rates come down and interest rates also moderate. At the current interest rates and taxation structure for especially for personal private consumption, it's unlikely we'll be able to sustain at 8%. So I think the base is good for sustained high growth. Now what that high growth will be depends a lot on both monetary and fiscal policies. Let's hear how that sound bite from the RBI Governor. India is at the threshold of a major structural shift in its growth trajectory. Moving towards 8% GDP growth in a sustained manner, we are moving towards annual growth rate of 8%. The Indian economy in the last financial year 2324 contributed to 18.5% of global growth. There have been multiple drivers of this growth that we have achieved and the growth expectation that I am placing before you. It is driven by the various structural reforms which have been undertaken and several other policy initiatives that have been undertaken in the country. Among the structural reforms at the forefront, I would like to mention the Goods and Services Tax. The GST flexible inflation targeting framework is very important because stable inflation is at the core of long term sustainable growth. Stylam Industries is in focus. Remember in the morning we told you about this brokerage note from Investec and how this company over the years has become a bigger company. International brokerages are now covering it. Look at that stock at one point in time almost 10% higher. Srikanth, can you do a chart check for us? Is today's move back on volumes and from here on, is this a breakout which could be sustained? Yeah. Good afternoon, Ajay, Good afternoon. I can see the stock has spent a lot of time below the levels of or around the levels of 15115 fifty, almost almost a year we can say. And now it is again on the verge of absorbing almost all the setting pressure which was lined up between the levels of 1900 to almost 2000. I think very clearly it is crossing the consolidation trading range and based on its technical formation, the next level to watch out for will be 2200 to 2250. In case if there is any correction then again the level of 1800 going to act as very good support for it. But broadly we are of the view that it is heading for 2250. It's a buy even at current level. The view coming in and styling, we just talked about the telecom sector and a lot of ancillaries of telecom sector have started to run up as well. I'm talking about Tata Tele for instance, that's managed to perk up. You also have names like Indus Tower of course, which are doing quite well. Tata Communications is trending higher. You also have ITR limited to all of these stocks, anything and associated with telecom is actually doing quite well called the effect of the auctions that have happened or the fact that Street is in perhaps some tariff hikes around the corner. All of these stocks are buzzing around. Separately, you also have those cement stocks that we have been talking about, South Sandeep. Let me ask you on cement, I don't think you have been very positive on the sector. Do you think today's move is just a flash in the pan of sorts on account of news of some consolidation or there is something which is structurally changed? Consolidation is always bullish for the industry overall. However, I think in the cement industry, even after consolidation, there will be 5-6 big players. So it's not that one or two players are going to dominate the industry. That's one part. Secondly, the supply increases are very rapid and over the next two years, continuously supply increase will be more than the increase in demand. Thirdly, we've seen that cement companies have been trying to increase prices since January, but they've been unable to. Every time they hike prices, the prices again fall. Only thing which is working in their favour is the input Prices have been moderate, efficiency gains have played out and despite lower prices they have been able to improve profitability. But from here on it that will also be tougher. So I think the cement industry is decently placed but extremely overwhelmed in my view at this point of time, right. I want to talk about before we let you go is the private banking name given that the rally is got, you know that fresh fresh adrenaline. I recall you were bullish on Kotak more after the regulatory hurdles and you know, you were talking about Mr. Hart that has a bigger alpha to jump up. Have you changed your mind since? Would you now bet an ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank more as opposed to Kotak? See ICICI an excess in case you hold. So the only incremental addition was quoted because what we've seen is that RBI regulatory actions are tending to get resolved within a period of four to six months unlike a year plus a few years back. So one of the biggest factor holding back quota bank has been these restrictions etcetera, which I will put, that's why it's underperformed in this upswing after underperforming so much for the last few years. So in my view, most negative Zion and relative to the private banking space, this is decently placed. So for contradian investors, I think this is a good bet to take because as the resolution will happen of issues related to RBI restrictions, we will see the stock move up after that. All right, just one quick word, Sandeep on VA Tech, I mean it's short of 10% today. I believe that in the Concord recently they spoken about how they can, you know, do desalinization per liter at 9 paisa. Looking at the way water is an issue in big cities like Chennai and Bangalore, Can they scale this up to a pan India opportunity? I mean the entire company is still available at a billion dollar. The opportunity is very significant. Now as all of you know that we've been solving this talk for a very long time for very low levels. So I don't want to be recommending people to buy after the stock zoomed up so much. But long term directionally, I think the company is very well placed. The order flows, both strong India, Gulf as well as Africa are likely to be very strong for the company over the next 2-3 years. Next year years could be between 60 to 65 to 70 like not this year, next year. So I mean, people have to decide what valuation they are willing to give the company. But yeah, Sandeep has been a big bull and talking about via tech Wabag for a while now. But Sandeep, good to have you on the show as always and get in your thoughts. The other two stocks which are in focus have been HUDCO and Irida. They've been, you know, Abbas in the back of governments efforts to include these entities under Section 54 EC of the Income Tax Act in the upcoming Union Budget. So what does it really imply for the stocks? Let me take it across to Snehi to get in exactly those details and then of course, we will pick up this, you know discussion forward with Shweta Dattardar as well from Ilara Capital. But Snehi, you go first. Well, yes. So the government is mulling the inclusion of two PSU which is Areda as well as Hood Co under Section 54 EC of the Income Tax Act. Now, why is this important and what does this mean? Now post inclusion, if these two stocks are included under this 54 EC Income Tax Act, investors that will invest in these bonds or will buy these bonds of these companies will be exempt from capital gains tax. So that's an important development coming over here. Interest rates of such bonds are also much lower in the bond market compared to the regular bonds and till now only REC and Pfc have been permitted to raise such bonds. Now in the latest report by ILARA and their view on this development, they validated the news that Hutco is on the verge of raising 54 EC bonds with a lock in period of five years at the rate of 5.25%. Now inclusion in the 54 EC would bring fund. Cost benefit to HUTCO in the medium to long term, they remain bullish on HUTCO. They continue to maintain a by rating and they also believe that HUTCO will continue to command premium valuations. They believe that HUTCO will see a convergence of cyclical tail bins as well as structural catalyst and the pipeline would be growth as well as Roe return on equity positive for HUTCO going ahead on the back of this inclusion into the 54 EC bonds. They believe that limb accretion and NPA down cycle would propel the return on assets or the ROA 2.7 to 2.8% by FI 26 and Roes will remain in the range of 15% and higher. So while positive news store coming in for both HUDCO as well as Arena and stocks are holding up pretty well on the back of this potential inclusion in the 54 EC bonds. Thanks so much Nee for that. But to take the discussion forward, Shweta Daktadar, the Vice President, Lead Analyst of diversified financial sector from Elara Capital also joins us on the show. Shweta, hi, good to be speaking with you. What's your own prognosis of this 54 EC being allowed or extended as per the budget as well? And does it really move the needle for companies that could go as well as IRIDA etcetera? Hi, good afternoon. So this is big positive for both IRITA and HUDCO Percy. So 54 EC bonds which are priced somewhere as low as anywhere between 5% to 5.5% definitely bring cost of fund benefits like we mentioned earlier. And if you look at Foot Co per say, you know almost 60% of their borrowings today are raised through corporate bonds, tax free bonds and now these capital tax free bonds. So which will bring significant benefits on the NIM accretion. So cost of funds today any which weighs are 30 to 40 bits lower than blended cost for these corporate bonds for Woodco. So further inclusion of 54 EC bonds which incrementally we believe will be 10 to 15% of their overall liabilities would benefit them on long term basis on the name accretion of perspective. So we definitely are positive on HUDCO per SE. The valuations although have caught up significantly given that you know there has been a PSU LED rally, in fact even the national election LED rally. But we strongly believe that fundamentals are yet to play out for HUDCO and the biggest testimony has been the Q4 earnings wherein HODCO has already clocked up 14 percent, 15% annual growth targets. They are sitting on almost as high as 8820 billion odd sanctions pipeline. So the going is good in terms of both business growth trajectory as well as ROH trajectory. So yes, we maintain bullish stance and this news further reinforces our confidence. Shweta you know in fact, so one is of course cost of capital going down and and I am a Christian. The other point is side the opportunity recently both AREDA and HUDCO have been interacting with us. HUDCO now is talking about rolling out massive housing projects on behalf of state governments. Almost a dozen state governments I mean they say are interacting with them. Same goes with your AREDA talks about 30% kind of AUM addition for next 345 year. How do you how long or can you see the tailwind of their business models? So yes, you're right. Basically primarily both power financiers as well as Group 4, which is say Housing and Urban infra financier, these are largely benefiting from the cyclical tailwinds. So both on the power side with government focus on green energy transition, the renewable targets to the tune of almost 500 GW capacity installation, which per say will translate into significant funding opportunity for park and answers. And on the other hand for Food Co, as you rightly pointed out, this government has significant focus on PMA by housing schemes. And for Food Co, 50% of their portfolio is largely housing and another 50% or the remainder 50% is infra. And again you know we are in the beginning of upcycle on the infra side. So at least for next four to five years, the growth looks pretty decent and healthy for both power financiers and players and NDFCS like Hutco, right? All right, Shweta, we'll let you go on that one. Thanks so much for joining us. That was Shweta Dhabtha Das speaking about Hutco and Eridar, where some policy tuik is likely to improve their cost of financing. Big deal. All right, Nurisha, there was a big block in the morning in Hindustan Foods. Now we all know Westbridge, you know Westbridge and of course 6th Sense Venture has been a big shareholder week pick up that they exited but still stock is gaining almost 7% in trade. How do the charts look for Hindustan Foods? Technically the stock is generally liquid. It sees more blocks rather than simple price action. It drifts. It has been drifting lower with up spikes happening but no follow up. So if you look at the last one year, after peaking out around 700 and the stock dipped all the way to 450 with interim spikes but nothing sustained. So for now, technically 550 as a short term resistance. Once we sustain the closing on it for a few sessions, then maybe we would call it a reversal. So for now, it's a stock which is sideways but trying to show some bit of a momentum. So would wait for a few more days to confirm a trend change. I take a very quick break on that note. Holding out very, very smartly for the markets. Will track the last half an hour of trade on the other side pack with using trades right here in ET Now. Well, well, of course, the market is doing what it's doing. The one sector where you're seeing the maximum amount of gains today is the entire cement sector. So let's try and understand what really is building in here. We've got Mangesh Bhadang joining in who tracks the sector very closely on the show. Mangesh. Hi, afternoon. Good to have you on the show up. You know consolidation always is the buzzword when it comes to the cement pack. But what do you think is leading this fresh wave today? Hi, thank you for having me. So if you look at the stocks that are going up led by their cements, clearly it is indicative that or most of the stocks which have been trading below the replacement cost have seen some buying and naturally it's a sign of consolidation in the industry. And but you know, as I said, we are very difficult to pinpoint which ones need to be the next. And no, but most of the the stocks that we had seen like there have been rumors around the name that there should be some many activity going on in those. But out of whack, out of no reason, we have seen some rally in all these stocks. Now there is no smoke without fire as they say Mangesh. So if it does happen, what has been, you know, kind of talked about in the street, What do you make of those acquisitions and consolidation? Do you see India Cement as a good acquisition target and which other names come to mind? Yeah, so India Cement has been talked about for a long time now. So they have close to 15,000,000 tons of capacity, but they recently sold a limestone mine to JSW and they also sold a grinding unit in Maharashtra to to Ultratech. So they have been looking to pair their debt and the debt has been on some higher level for some time now. And with very weak pricing in that region, the company had actually not made money on the level, you know, in the past few quarters. So that is on the ground. But if you look at the current market cap, the stock could be trading at around 85 to $90.00. I don't see larger companies paying that money for because some of the assets of the companies are quite old. So I don't see, you know if the if the deal happens, probably it could happen at slightly lower valuation than what it is trading at right now. Beyond the takeover game purely on the operational front versus the valuation they are trading at, which are the names preferred names in your view? Yeah, so let's see beyond the no, the acquisition is as I said very difficult to time and know which ones are the ones which will likely to go next. But apart from that, we really like Birla Corp and Devocco for the earnings growth that we see in those companies and possible multiples or valuation re rating story rest. We also like JK Cement and JK Lakshmi, but the valuations are slightly in favor of the previous two names that I mentioned compared to these two, the pricing. Just wanted to nudge a bit more about that because you know we have been doing this number crunching that for the last 10 years. The prices haven't really moved and even the last many months we have seen there is a price hike that comes, but that has to be rolled back because of the lack of demand. Do you see that changing in terms of the pricing? I don't think it is because of lack of demand as such. See demand has been weakened this quarter because of elections. But if you look at previous years, we've had a very good, in fact we've had a very good three years of demand growth in the country. Despite that the prices have not been up to the mark where they have been. That is because your utilization levels of the industry has been done. It is not optimum to be fair. So what we see is that the pricing would remain under pressure because competitive intensity is high within the sector. So whatever demand growth that we have seen, the incremental supply that has come up has actually been higher and also we have seen a lot of cost declines for the sector. So coal and PETCOC has come off. So most of the industry participants have passed on these declines to the consumer and that's the reason why overall cement pricing is actually down. So we had recently did a channel check wherein most of the dealers mentioned that over the past nine months, the prices have been coming under downward pressure, but they have been stable for the past two months. And there are certain markets, specifically in the eastern side, wherein the prices are as low as you know, back to FY13 and FY14 levels. OK, Mangesh, great to have you on the show. Thank you so much for taking the time out and speaking with us today. In fact, let's pick up the discussion forward. Ajay Bhagar as well joins in on the show right now. Ajay. Hi, afternoon cement. You think a missed opportunity or is there still time to get in into any of these names? And do you like it as a theme? Yeah, it has been a little out of favour. And basically, you know, the out, the volume growth hasn't been that strong, while the input costs have gone up with the raw material costs going up. But there is consolidation on in the sector and what has happened over the last few years that the players have deleveraged. And then you look at the mega trend of the public CapEx expenditure, the public infrastructure such a build out for which cement is a beneficiary. So this is expected, this kind of a move in cement upwards. But I think you have much better growth sectors if you want to play the growth team. But few of the sectoral leaders can be looked at as well. As you know, what is happening right now is that smaller players are being bid up in anticipation that the Big East will be gobbling up the smaller players to you know, meet their capacity expansion build outs that they have announced. So smaller players valuations have been going up on a merger, acquisition, kind of a team so difficult to play that it's not very cheap. The sector is not cheap but the mega trends are in favour of it. I would stick to the top end. If you want to take exposure then the sectoral leaders should tend to outperform on a 12 year basis. Ajay you you track the global backers also pretty closely. Especially some of the names here from the metal and mining pack in India are pretty linked to what's happening to global commodities in a space. Some of them particularly have strained balance sheet who are taking efforts to improve that by selling stick, etc. Would you play these guys who are kind of improvement on the balance sheet plays or the traditional, you know, steel or you know, aluminum plays? How do you play the metal pack here? You know a lot is dependent on China and especially if you see the moves in copper quite clearly copper went to you know number of years size or decade size and then it has languished because the Chinese demand has not really come through. So the metal say with respect to a cement, a cement is a very localized player domestic economy play while metals are global place because people can import them in. You know, in an ideal world, if governments didn't put tariffs, you could source. So right now I think copper is in a weak spot because it has factored in all the renewables, all the real estate growth, all the construction growth, the cabling, all all have got factored in copper. But the biggest consumer, China, was soft fish. And the Chinese property market, which was about 1820% of a global copper consumer, has not picked up traction yet. So their copper is suffering. Sure. No, yeah, the China angle is something definitely to watch out for. But I just wanted to put the spotlight on the auto sector as well, because you have Tata Motors Asian, which is underway, or at least they're meeting the media around that. And they're expecting support of government policy on EV to continue till the industry is self-sufficient and reaches at least 15% penetration. So perhaps that's giving you an idea as to what the industry is expecting out of budget as well. The overall push towards EV is likely to continue. The company also says that they're eyeing a 20% market share by 20-30 on back of the mid sized SUVs that they have launched. And the total addressable market for the company also goes up. Talking about autos, we did also get a chance to speak with the management of Bharat Forge today. They talked about how overall the overseas business is expected to turn around. Defense is something which is firing for them and of course EV capabilities is something that they have managed to scale up quite nicely. Listen into a slice of the conversation that we had with Mr. Amit Kalyani earlier. So look, we look at the manufacturing business, which is both defense, industrial, automotive, aerospace and then later on EV will all be growth drivers for Bharat Forge. Defense definitely is, has picked up a lot of momentum, is past the, let's say the learning curve and is now at the point where it will go from, you know, incubation to you know, maturity and then maturity to acceleration. In fact, not only Bharat Forge, if you look at there are a bunch of forging companies, MMM forging. Is there RK forging, Amic forging the Calcutta based company. A lot of forging stocks have done very well in trade. Ajay, this is, you know, kind of a market every day when we're almost talking at 24,000, kind of making a lot of investors sitting on handsome gains in their portfolios jittery. Should one be trimming portfolio shifting, reallocating or just ride on? Very tough, very tough call and only in the retrospect we will know what is the better way out. But I think looking back at allocations, if your equity allocation has exceeded your ideal allocation, then might be some might be time to take some money off. You know, especially railway defense. I've been saying for some time now, the kind of valuations we have seen, we might have one more rally leading up to the budget today. There is relief that the Lok Sabha speakership went relatively incident less and the ruling party could get their speaker in. It's a very important position and it ensures some amount of political continuity going ahead. So now the next juncture will really be the Union Budget. So you can expect PSU stocks, railways, defense, as always happens, one more rally coming up. We could write that, but I think post budget valuations will start looking at the investors in the eye and that could be a time to get out. But definitely you know these are not very easy markets making lifetime highs on a weekly basis. So not easy to take money off. But I would say regular money investor investing and look at the asset allocation and if you your equities got stretched out, then good to take some money off the table. I think post the budget, you might get a chance to re enter the market at lower levels. Right now. We might just see an upsurge. Let me take it across to our chartists as well and get in some BTST trades. Going to on that note, Naresh, let's start off with you. What's on your list? So first would be a bar in the stars. The stock is on verge of a breakout into new 52 week highs and keeper advice topless at 350. Target price of 365. 2nd is the barn granules. The momentum continues. Fresh flag break out here. Stop us at 490, a target price of 520. What about your BTST ideas? Yeah, I think yeah. All these large cap companies are really doing well and most of these stocks are recovering from their important clothes. In that specifically we like Gas Authority which is currently trading around 2/12, 2:30 There we are seeing some higher bottom sort of formation and from here the stock can again move back to the levels of 225 or 2:30 which was its previous highest level. It's a buy at current levels around 213213.50 with the stop loss close to 2:07. And the other stock on which we are bullish is GNFC Gujarat Nevada Fertilizer because there also we are seeing good amount of buying attraction, Deepak fertilizer, Deepak Nitrite, Gujarat GNFC, almost all the stocks are recovering from their lows after correcting from their heights. Currently GNFC is around 690-7698. But while looking at its technical pattern, I think the stock has completed its correction and now it's again ready to move towards the levels of 7:50 to 7:55. It's about current, current levels with a stop loss close to 680 with a target of 750. So that's a view on a couple of these stocks. But Srikanth, I also wanted your sense regarding Reliance. That stock alone is up 4 1/4%, adding 110 points to the Nifty weight today. What's the view on Reliance 3035 on the stock? What's the next level to watch out for? Reliance has broken its important resistance level, which was around 3 thousand 2025. And the stock was below this level since last almost 5-6 months. So it was like consolidating within the range of 3000, sorry between 2800 and 3025 on the hard side, based on its technical pattern. Now the stock has opened the next targets of 3200 in next few weeks or months. It will take time but broadly I think the stock is heading for 3200 levels. In case if there is any correction, it will be an opportunity for short term traders to buy around important support levels like 3000 or maybe 2980 levels. But if there is a medium to long term view, then I think even at this level it's a buy. OK, even at the current level it's a buy. Coming in on Reliance Industries. But what else is doing well? ICICI Bank, Parthi Airtel, Axis Bank, these are the stocks while HDFC Bank is on the back foot and M2 is down about 2% in the trading session, Cesc is the other stock which is up almost 10% in the trading session. It's sitting at all time high levels. Let's pull up the stock of Cesc. The news flow or the buzz on the street is that there is perhaps some tariff hike which is incumbent as far as the West Bengal Circle is concerned. But as of now, there's no confirmation. The street is just working with that assumption. But shifting focus away from markets for a bit because it's going to be a very interesting Thursday because we of course have that semi final lined up at the T20 World Cup. But we also have important movie release coming in tomorrow. Let's take it across to we need to get a sense as to what's the star cast, what's the expectation with respect to booking? And finally, is this the release which is going to turn around the fate for the likes of PVR Inox? It will be actually turning around 4 in terms of PVR Inox the life and maybe some improvement there because the movie Kalki 289 at AD is a star, a superstar movie. We have Amitabh Bachchan, Deepika Padukone, Prabhas as well as Kamal Haasan who are starring in the movie. So the star cast is up to mark the advances that we are seeing in terms of the booking that seems to be exciting. The movie is launching tomorrow, releasing tomorrow, 27th of June. And yes, on the first day, opening day, the collections are expected to be in the range of 100 and 10225 crores plus. And around that mark is what we could be watching out for the opening day collection. Other than that, obviously when you're looking at it in terms of PVR, Inox as well as Cinepolis in terms of the national data point that is coming in, we are seeing that, yes, good tickets have been sold for the first day as well. Advanced second is more than around 37,000, so around 37 to 40,000 already tickets that have been sold for the first day just in these two cinemas, theaters. Other than that advances in even the other versions of the movies or the Telugu version, Tamil version that is also seeing a very good traction. There is a lot of positive commentary that is coming in for this one in terms of the pre sales and if the pre sales workout as the numbers that we're seeing right now, then maybe we could see the big chance of this being a top one in terms of the opening coming in at least from the Hindi version side. And this is despite like you were saying in terms of the World Cup competition that we are seeing that is there. So yes, the World Cup is going to be there, semi finals of India, England that we are watching out for. But with that, the star of movie is also what we are watching out for. Keep an eye out on that. Expected to see a bumper opening creating a lot of buzz and obviously the cost less ticket so far sold in Mumbai is of around 2300 is the pricing will be watching out for that hire for any ticket booking. I think 2300 rupees each ticket. But the promotions are quite kind of reminding me of Mad Max and Dune at least the early posters out there for the Hollywood. Let's see let's see what kind of numbers actually trickle in heavy duty star cast though Yeah clearly. Well that's Dune for you. But Amitabh is looking amazing. What? Look, anyway, this guy killed just completely reinvent himself in every performance, every time different look, all right, that's why you guys are clearly all time, all time. OK, so that is about Kalki, but let's talk about the market closing just 10 minutes away. Nourish. BTST idea we already discussed with Nourish, right? Yeah, we have. But you know, wanna wanna talk about Loda? I think that stock is down 10%. Let's pull up that if that's the case. Or is it just, OK, that's an adjustment for me on my screen, But the stock hasn't done well this week. It's been down 10%. Sun Tech also is down in the trading session today. MCX map, my India, map my India, of course, is really under pressure on account of that trade that happened from the promoter settings take, they categorically mentioned that they're going to hold on to 52% thereabouts, not looking at further stake sale. But for now, the stock is coming under a bit of pressure. But overall, talking about Z Entertainments as well because that stock is up almost 5% in the trading session right now. Mr. Bucker wanted your take regarding some of these power stocks and let's include even our EC Pfc in that matter. I read as well as we were talking earlier that 54 EC coming to play and the fact that there was a lot expected in terms of streamlining of the RBI draft regulations, etc, as well. Would you be a buyer in any of the power, let's say generating transmission cable, the entire ecosystem and the financiers, anything you would want to bet on? Yeah, I think it's a multi year trend. The power requirement for the entire things that are happening, be it on the EV side, be it on the data centers to run the AIAI is going to enter every single industry. You will need so much crunching power and data centers to back it. Today, if you look at the US or China, which are using the maximum AI, the power consumption just for AI is equal to quite a few cities. It's become that huge. So the Indian powers sector as as such is on a good cusp. Within that, if you look at there are the financials, there are the power generators, they are the renewable companies who are bringing in a lot more attraction. And then you have the suppliers to all these and finally the executors, the directors who are going to execute the power plants and the financials. So I would say overall, you can't go wrong in power. You have to look at valuations. Valuations have again run up a lot in anticipation especially in the public sector financials and now today's news flow as well on tax free status or this 54 EC are being extended has led to some more buying. But look at the kind of numbers 500, you know gigawatts of renewables by 2030. It's so and you know, order of magnitude kind of growth that's coming by. So I would say well run companies both on even on transmission getting all those renewables into the city grids will need huge transmission lines and then the suppliers of cables to those and the makers of metal which goes into those cables. So you have the entire value chain around power. It's become a mega theme and I would say invest in that. Where Inos green saw very good participation. As far as the QIP is concerned, stock is up 5%. Even Ashish Kachulia's name has cropped up in Inos Green. In fact, two weeks back, inos Wind also saw a block coming in where, you know, international players also showed very good participation. She can't any view on Inos Green or Inox Wind silica. For Inox green, it was it is almost very close to its next important resistance level of one 83185 because it was consolidating within the range of 150 and almost 120 for a longer time. And based on its rectangle consolidation formation, if we calculate the targets, then it should be like somewhere close to 18085. And currently I think it is trading around the same levels. So based on technicals, I think at these levels it is better to stay away. But yes, if there is any correction because of any reason, then close to 160, the stock is having support. And if there is a very long term view, I'm going to say at least move off next six months, then I think the stock can move towards the levels of 225 word coming in on Inox green. While today of course, the flavour from within the, you know, sectoral theme has really been cement. But look at what heavy is like Reliance like Bharti have done today. Reliance shore up a good 4 1/4% Kannan amidst Reliance, which has been sort of a slow mover. Even banks, I guess were catching up faster than that, right? And and of course, you know, there's banks on the other end. Naresh, do you think now a bigger move or a bigger catch up could play on Reliance after this 4% move that we've seen today too? Naresh So Reliance could take the lead given that it's set a new all time high and it has been testing it multiple times. And all we need is a fundamental trigger in terms of a tariff hike or something to propel that. But the price action today is very strong and it has come to those levels of 3025, three, 1030 closing well into the positive territory about those levels. So it can say if this continues, it has a minimum target price of 30 to 5033 hundred. So positive on the stock and banking also the trends are still positive. So it's a time to ride on to the position rather than to think a lot. One stock, Nurish Raymond has actually shot up 8% in trade. Actually trigger was that NCLT has approved their 9% now demerger of their lifestyle business about 3000. Time to book out. Yeah, looks like because the last previous slide for the stock was around 2300 where it's broken out from. So 2025% moved on. So either could trim the stock or keep a training stock was below 2800 now, right? OK, that's the take coming in on what you're seeing on some of these buzzing names. But Ajay, we'll let you go on that note. Naresh as well as Srikanth, good to have you on the show as well. In fact, I'm going to hand it over to Vini now to sum up all the action that's that we've seen today. Absolutely an interesting day that we saw coming in for the Nifty 50 as well as the Nifty Bank today because all time high levels where they look at the Nifty Sensex or the Nifty Bank, we saw them seeing a buzzing in trade. Now when you look at it Nifty Bank, that 50 three, 8000 mark was there, yes, of the days highest point as of now, the Nifty Bank. But surely keeping on and continuing to gain that momentum that we've seen in the last couple of days. Nifty managing to hold on to those near those all time high levels. 23,889.90 was the new high for it today. Right now, just slight bit of that, but Nifty Sensex both managing to hold on to gains of almost 7/10 of a percent in trade. Other than that, you know the mid cap and the small cap, that's the trend we've seen in the last couple of trading sessions, right? Broader market not managing to see that much of A gain as much as we saw in the Nifty, especially the mid cap space. Even yesterday, even today will be closing on the red. While in terms of the small cap, just managing to hold on a slight bit of a gain of 2/10 of a percent in trade. Advance decline ratio today is in the favour of declines as of now versus advances. But yes, we are keeping keeping an eye out on that. Let's pull up some of the heavyweights. What we saw coming in and buzzing today from the telecom side, we had Reliance that was managing to hold on a very, very strong gains. Reliance, I believe it was one of the best moves that Reliance saw in terms of an intraday move since the 3rd of June 2024. So keeping an eye on that. Reliance will be closing with gains of almost 4%. Even Bharti Airtel, we have seen that also buzzing in trade. So yes, possibility that you know, the buzz coming around that there is a possibility of hikes, that one could be seeing tariff hikes, that is a possibility there. So yes, the spectrum auction is over now. Yes, that's the buzz there. And keeping an eye on that. Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel as well as Reliance managing to hold on to strong gains. And then that in terms of the contribution that came in from Reliance today was the most 100 points around contribution for the Nifty 50. So clearly supporting the Nifty 50 today was Reliance. We also had ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, all of them also managing to support with Bharati Atal managing to support in terms of the move that came in for the Nifty fifty. Other than that, let's pull up the cement names that we have, Ultratech Cement, whether you have Ambuja, ACC, Ramco Cements, all of them managing to hold on to gains. Today's cement was certainly the flavor whether India cements. So this was the flavor of the day in terms of the sector that we saw in terms of an up move. What's not managing to hold on to gains today was the Realty pack. Realty Pack is clearly under pressure today and we're seeing that the Realty names, whether you look at it in terms of prestige, Lodha developers, that's macro tech developers, DLF, Sun Tech, Realty Brigade Enterprises, Phoenix, all of them are Phoenix Limited. All of them are seeing a bit of a subject performance. While we also had Z Entertainment today managing to hold on to gains, we had PVR Inox managing to hold on to gains of almost a percent as well. So yes, at least some bit of an excitement that came in from the media side today in terms of an up move. And among the top sectoral gainer was the Nifty Media. Other than that, we have the Nifty Energy space that is managing to hold on to gains and in that when you look at it, we also had NTPCBPCLONGC, Tata Power which managed to hold on to gains and support. A bit of an up move in terms of the market. FMCG, not much of an excitement coming in on that front. Slight bit of an up move mainly led by when you look at it in terms of the Dabur that has seen a good up move and other than that we have seen goes rich consumers managing to hold on to some bit of a gain there. So, yes, Sir, we are seeing a market set up coming in mainly where Realty is not doing well, which had already seen a line up in a long time. But Nifty Realty, not much of an excitement there. Media managing to hold on to gains led by overall that we saw is in terms of a move that came in from Z that was managing to hold on the small cap side. When you look at it. We at Cesc that was managing to hold on to gains, Pitagar, Raymond, all of them buzzing in trade as well as Apple and Amber Enterprises managing to hold on to strong gains on the small cap side. So yes, that's how we will be closing the market. Nifty continues to outperform today, LED mainly by overall when you look at it, alliance power, the Airtel supporting strong growth as well as the banking side continues to support the markets. If you like this video then like, share and subscribe to ET Now.