MLB trends: Guardians' power surge, disappointing Blue Jays and Jack Flaherty's well-timed bounceback season
MLB trends: Guardians' power surge, disappointing Blue Jays and Jack Flaherty's well-timed bounceback season
It feels like Opening Day was just yesterday, but this week is the halfway point of the 2024 regular season, and the All-Star break is only three weeks away. The trade deadline is not too far behind that. The samples aren't small anymore and contenders are starting to separate themselves from pretenders. Well, kind of. There are still a lot of teams in the mushy middle as July approaches. Here now are three MLB trends worth knowing.
Cleveland's power surge
Entering play Tuesday, the Guardians had the AL's best record at 50-26, and they've done it with well-rounded play. Cleveland is averaging 5.03 runs scored per game, third most in baseball behind the Orioles (5.19) and Phillies (5.10). They are allowing only 3.64 runs per game, fourth fewest in the game behind the Phillies (3.55), Dodgers (3.58), and Yankees (3.62).
Run prevention has been a constant in Cleveland. The Guardians always rank among the best at keeping runs off the board. The high-powered offense is new though. Last year they were 27th in runs scored per game and, from 2021-23, Cleveland ranked 24th in runs scored and 25th in OPS. They won games by smothering the other team and scratching out a few runs.
The single biggest reason for Cleveland's offensive breakout? The home run. They're actually hitting the ball out of park now. The Guardians went into Tuesday's game with 89 home runs, ninth most in baseball. An above-average but modest total. This is a team that hit 124 home runs all of last season though, 27 fewer than any other team. This year they're on pace for 190 dingers.
Sweeping personnel changes do not explain the uptick in power. Five of Cleveland's top six hitters in plate appearances last year are still with the team. Rather, the organization embraced a philosophical change, and the players already on the roster are hitting for more power. Simply put, the Guardians are more willing to accept swings and misses. From The Athletic in February:
Now, they're after more hard contact. To make more hard contact, the coaches have preached, they need to take more chances. To take more chances, hitters must be amenable to more swings-and-misses.
...
It's about tradeoffs, accepting some whiffs in exchange for some doubles and homers. (Hitting coach Chris) Valaika suggested he'd sign up for a middle-of-the-pack home run ranking if the Guardians dropped to, say, fifth in strikeout rate after finishing first the last two years.
Steven Kwan missed close to four weeks with a hamstring injury and has still already set a new career high with seven home runs. José Ramírez has 20 homers after hitting 24 all of last year. Josh Naylor has 20 homers too. That ties his career high set in 2022. He went deep 17 times all of last year. The tradeoff is working. The Guardians are hitting for power and atop the standings.
And the thing is, Cleveland's strikeout rate has not skyrocketed. Last year they struck out in 18.7% of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in baseball and comfortably below the 22.7% league average. This year their team strikeout rate is 19.5%, fifth lowest in baseball. Their swinging strike rate (i.e. misses per pitch) is up from 9.9% to 10.6%, yet still below the 10.9% MLB average.
To put it another way, the Guardians have added 0.99 home runs and only 0.80 strikeouts per 100 plate appearances from last season. That's a trade-off you make 10 times out of 10. One extra homer at the expense of one extra strikeout? Easy yes. That trade-off has taken Cleveland from the game's worst power-hitting team to an above-average one, and it has them in first place.
"We have to break that mold. The hallmark of the organization has been drafting good decision-makers, high-contact bats. So we have to add to more of that impact potential that we have," Valaika told The Athletic in February. "... (It's about) taking shots, looking for go zones, looking for areas that we can impact the ball rather than just putting the ball in play."
Toronto's troublesome home run differential
Is there a more disappointing team in baseball this season than the Blue Jays? They won at least 89 games every year from 2021-23 and they've gone to the postseason three times in the last four years. Granted, they did not win a single postseason game those years, but they made it, and if you make it you can win it. You'd rather be playing baseball in October than not.
This season, the Blue Jays are in the AL East cellar and they took a seven-game losing streak into Tuesday night's game against the Red Sox. Only the very bad Angels, Athletics, and White Sox are further out of an AL wild-card spot. According to FanGraphs, Toronto's postseason odds are down to a season-low 3.6%. They were 49.0% on Opening Day. That's quite a fall.
The reasons the Blue Jays are underperforming are numerous, but really, we can boil it down to one thing: Toronto gives up too many home runs and doesn't hit enough home runs. I guess that's two things. Anyway, the Blue Jays went into Tuesday's game with the second-most home runs allowed (106) and the fourth-fewest home runs hit (68) this season. That's a bad, bad combination.
Here is the home run differential leaderboard entering Tuesday's action:
| HR hit | HR allowed | HR differential |
|---|---|---|
Hey, the Blue Jays don't have the worst home run differential in their division! They shouldn't be comparing themselves to the Rays though. The Blue Jays want to be up there with the Orioles, Yankees, Phillies, and other teams with strong home run differentials like the Dodgers (plus-26) and Braves (plus-20). Not below the White Sox, Marlins (minus-20), and Rockies (minus-19).
Cornerstone hitters Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Alejandro Kirk have regressed from their highs of a few years ago (to be fair, Vlad Jr. has been very good the last few weeks). Up and down the staff, Toronto's pitchers have taken a step back. The Blue Jays allowed only 4.14 runs per game in 2023. That's up to 4.53 this year. They've been unable to keep the ball in the park.
Despite all the recent postseason trips, this Blue Jays team has had a knack for underperforming. The whole always seems to be less than the sum of the parts. Why, I do not know, but it's not a one-year thing. Toronto has been the most disappointing team in baseball this year and it will force hard decisions at the deadline and in the offseason. The home runs are only part of the problem.
Flaherty's bounceback season
This was supposed to be the year the Tigers took a step forward and competed for a postseason berth, if not the AL Central title. Instead, they are under .500 and far enough out of the wild-card race that selling at the trade deadline is a distinct possibility. If they do, they have a top-flight trade chip in rental starter Jack Flaherty, who's working on a one-year contract worth $14 million.
Flaherty, who is still only 28, owns a 2.92 ERA through 14 starts, and he has a 1.83 ERA with a .199/.235/.335 opponent's batting line in his last eight starts. Eighty-two pitchers threw at least 100 innings last year and at least 50 innings this year. Flaherty has the biggest year-to-year strikeout and walk rate improvements among the 82.
| Pitcher | 2023 K% | 2024 K% | K% change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitcher | 2023 BB% | 2024 BB% | BB% change |
The Tigers have tweaked Flaherty's pitch mix a bit -- he's scrapped his cutter entirely and is throwing more four-seam fastballs and sliders -- but, more than it anything, it just seems like he's healthy. He had oblique trouble in 2021 and shoulder issues in 2022, and now he's further away from that and he had a normal offseason to prepare for the season. No more rehabbing, etc.
With Jesús Luzardo injured and the asking price for Garrett Crochet likely to be exorbitant, Flaherty could be the most desirable starting pitcher available at the deadline. The Tigers don't have to trade him -- they could keep him and make him the qualifying offer after the season and receive a draft pick if he signs elsewhere -- but given the standings, they'd be foolish not to at least listen to offers.
That said, the rebuild cannot go on forever, right? Flaherty is only 28 and he gives the Tigers a mean 1-2 punch with Tarik Skubal. Rather than trade him, why not extend him? I suppose a team could make an offer so great the Tigers can't turn it down, but teams are too rational these days. Those huge prospect packages are harder to come by. Extending Flaherty should be on the table.
No matter what the Tigers do with Flaherty at the deadline or after the season, he has proven to be one of the best value signings of the offseason. He's never lacked talent, just health and consistency, and he's had both this season. With the exception of a handful of players, the roster around Flaherty is lacking, but he's more than held up his end of the bargain this year.