Warrington South: The ‘Red Wall’ seat where fear of China threat could swing vote

In Warrington’s bustling town centre, Hong Kongers shopping for a taste of home are also weighing up where to cast their first vote in a UK general election.

The recent arrivals are browsing the aisles of Hong United K Limited supermarket in the key North West battleground of Warrington South – a swing seat the Tories won in 2019, but whose redrawn boundaries mean it is being treated as a Labour defence.

It is among the constituencies that Hong Kongers could help decide in the election, according to a recent survey.

The supermarket’s owner, Paul Wong, who backed Labour in the local elections, is now switching his allegiance to the Tories.

But, like a growing number of compatriots who have fled to the UK to escape China’s crackdown on democracy since 2021, he has reservations.

“I’m an admirer of Liz Truss because she treated China as a threat, unlike Mr Sunak,” the 57-year-old told i.

“We don’t like David Cameron and we don’t like Sunak.”

The hostility towards Lord Cameron stems from the “golden era” of close UK-China economic ties he heralded when he served as prime minister.

Relations between London and Beijing have since deteriorated, but hawks in the Conservative Party have expressed disappointment that the current Prime Minister has failed to label Beijing a threat.

Paul Wong, owner of supermarket Hong United K (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

More than 140,000 people have arrived in the UK from Hong Kong under the British National Overseas (BNO) visa since 2021, after Beijing imposed a sweeping national security law which, to crush dissent, criminalised the “subversion” of state power – a crime that carries a maximum sentence of life in prison.

Anyone born in Hong Kong before the 1997 handover, which ended British rule in the former overseas territory, is able to apply to become a BNO passport holder.

But a perceived failure to get tough with China in the months and years since may help explain why support for the Tories among those in the UK is waning.

Despite the Conservative Government bringing in the visa scheme for Hong Kong residents, a survey by campaign coalition Vote for Hong Kong 2024 showed barely 20 percent of BNO Hong Kongers favoured the Tories, down from more than half last June.

Coming in second and third were the Liberal Democrats (15.9 per cent ) and Labour (7.2 per cent), according to the survey of more than 1,000 UK-based Hong Kongers, published in April.

And while the report shows a majority have no clear preference for any party, there are fears in some Tory quarters that a failure to address the community’s concerns could harm electoral prospects in marginal seats with large Hong Kong communities – like Warrington South.

The community’s support here could be crucial for Conservative candidate Andy Carter, who secured a 2,010 majority in the bellwether seat in 2019, smaller than the more than 2,200 eligible BNO voters in the constituency identified by NGO Hong Kong Watch.

Mr Carter is in a battle with Labour’s Sarah Hall for the seat, with several other candidates standing.

Luke de Pulford, the founder and executive director of the cross-party Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (Ipac), believes the Tories could suffer a ballot-box backlash if they do not take a tougher stance on China.

“I remember when we were lobbying for the BNO visa and the discussions within Government went something like this: ‘Well, we’ll have to bring them all here, they’ll be net contributors to the UK economy, and of course, wink wink, nudge nudge, they will be Tory voters,’” he said.

“What’s actually happened is because the UK has failed to hold China to account for what it’s done to Hong Kong, they’re feeling pretty disconsolate.

“That’s nearly 200,000 people who have come over who could have been quite a large voting bloc for the Conservative Party, had they shown a bit of strength, but they haven’t.

“And for that reason, they’ve only got themselves to blame when those Hong Kongers don’t cast their votes for the Conservative Party in the election, and I’m really not convinced they will.”

There are more than 2,200 Hong Kongers eligible to vote in Warrington South at the general election (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

At Warrington’s Holy Trinity Church, Hong Kongers attend a weekly coffee morning, with services held in Cantonese each weekend.

Among the worshippers is KaLun To, a former district councillor in Hong Kong who escaped the communist-held enclave “in a bit of a rush” after a mass arrest of democrats.

Since arriving in March 2021, he feels the Conservatives have done more to address the plight of Hong Kong than the other main parties.

“Labour, the Liberal Democrats, I may be wrong, but I don’t think I have heard anything from them,” he said.

“Quite a number of Hong Kong people approach me and ask for advice on which party to vote for. They are not sure.”

Among the issues he cites are what he calls the “infiltration” of the BNO scheme by pro-Beijing elements, including police officers who have beaten up pro-democracy supporters in Hong Kong, who he claimed had been able to come to the UK on the visa scheme.

He also believes the Government may have squandered professional opportunities presented by well-educated Hong Kongers, citing friends who were nurses but who now work as labourers or in warehouses.

Dream Chan, owner of Shining Rainbow bubble tea cafe, was a nurse in Hong Kong and worked seven days a week to gain the qualifications to work in the NHS (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

“I don’t think the current Government is making it easier for these professionals to integrate or take up their own jobs,” he said.

“It’s a big waste for the UK.”

A short walk from the church, Dream Chan is opening up her Shining Rainbow cafe, which sells bubble tea, the sweet concoction known for its chewy tapioca pearls, with a growing UK audience, thanks to its soaring popularity on social media.

Although the 43-year-old mother-of-two had been a staff nurse in Hong Kong, it took her two years to gain the necessary qualifications to work for the NHS.

Working seven days a week, she is now a nurse at Warrington Hospital, but thinks more could be done to fast-track medics into frontline roles.

“It’s very difficult. I would still go through that pathway to get my qualification, but some of my colleagues who are also the registered nurses in Hong Kong, they have no chance to become a nurse again,” she said.

“They may step down to the healthcare assistant role. Some of them are not too young any more but they are very experienced.”

Ruby Tang with husband Ken Tong and daughter Kirsty (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

The entrepreneurial drive of Hong Kongers like Ms Chan is evident in Warrington, with a number of businesses in the town centre opening to cater for the community.

Many share concerns highlighted in the V4HK survey, which revealed more than half of BNO voters view foreign policy toward China and Hong Kong as the most important UK social issue to them.

It’s also the issue about which they are least satisfied over the Government’s performance. Tackling transnational surveillance and harassment by the Chinese and Hong Kong governments were flagged as a priority by 62 per cent of respondents to the survey.

Mr Wong, who opened his supermarket in November 2022, cites Warrington’s affordable living standards as a reason for settling in the town, with his teenage daughter leaving the “one-sided teaching” in Hong Kong for a local school.

But foreign concerns are uppermost in his mind, and he cites Labour’s approach to China as a reason he is voting Conservative.

Businessman Leo Chu delivers food to Hong Kong businesses across Warrington (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

The Conservative manifesto vows to raise China to the “enhanced tier” of the UK’s foreign influence registration scheme if the party is elected.

In a toughening of the Tory stance, it would require extra security checks on Chinese nationals working in the UK on behalf of Beijing – but leading Conservatives have called for a harder line.

Labour, meanwhile, has said it would “co-operate where we can, compete where we need to, and challenge where we must” when it came to Beijing.

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Shadow Foreign Secretary David Lammy said in April that the party would recognize that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses “real security threats” due to its expanding military and support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, said Mr Wong, “they still think about co-operating with CCP China. This is unsuitable to me for the foreign policy.

“As the election approaches, Hong Kongers are evaluating which party aligns best with their values and concerns, particularly regarding foreign policy and domestic stability.

“The ability of any government to address these threats and foster a secure and inclusive environment will be pivotal in earning the trust and support of Hong Kongers residing in the UK.”

Another worry – also raised in the Vote for Hong Kong (V4HK) study – are the Chinese state-sponsored Confucius Institutes across the UK.

Last year, Mr Sunak backtracked on a pledge to shut down the institutes, which have been accused of spreading propaganda and spying on students.

“They forgot, or maybe something like that,” Mr Wong said.

He added that he had not heard from either the Labour or Conservative candidates in the election. Neither candidate responded to requests for an interview with i, or to questions emailed to them.

His friend Leo Chu, 56, is a food developer who delivers supplies to Hong Kong businesses in Warrington, travelling from his home in Manchester.

Stephen Tse, owner of the Bamboo Garden restaurant (Photo: Andrew Fox/i)

He is one of thousands of Hong Kongers in the UK being denied access to more than £3bn in pension savings trapped in banks after the CCP-backed authorities refused to recognise the BNO visa.

University fees are another obstacle facing BNO visa holders, who have to pay international fees of up to £50,000 a year for degrees as they do not qualify for UK fees – another problem Mr Chu wants No 10 to resolve.

“I understand the difficulty of the UK Government. But they have to fix it one by one,” he said.

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The Conservatives are already facing a defeat of historic proportions on 4 July, with a myriad of voters’ frustrations piling up around the Prime Minister.

Former party leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a long-time critic of Beijing, said he could not be sure if discontent among Hong Kongers will also cost the Tories’ seats.

“l do know that every Hong Konger that I’ve talked to understands the degree of my commitment, for example, to China and the Hong Kong people,” he told i.

“I don’t see these things in party political terms. I do see them, however, in terms of our attitude towards China.

“What they’ll want is obviously what I want – they want to see China clearly indicated as a threat to the UK and to all Western interests.”

Thomas Benson, research and policy adviser at Hong Kong Watch, said it would be “remiss” of Labour and the Tories not to court BNO voters in Warrington South.

“Although both parties have pledged their support for BNO Hong Kongers in their manifestos, it would be good to see more evidence that they are listening to the concerns and needs of this group, such as, for instance, charging young Hong Kongers unaffordable international fees to study at university,” he said.

“Our research shows that this could help make the difference in key target seats like Warrington South.”

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