Reformist and hardliner neck and neck in Iran's presidential vote

A low-key moderate and a protege of Iran's supreme leader are neck and neck as votes are counted in snap presidential elections marked by voter apathy over economic hardship and social restrictions.

With more than 14 million ballots counted so far from Friday's polling, sole moderate candidate Masoud Pezeshkian has more 5.9 million votes and the hardline candidate, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili, more than 5.5 million, provisional results from the Interior Ministry showed.

Some insiders said the turnout was about 40 per cent – a figure lower than expected by Iran's clerical rulers, while witnesses told Reuters that polling stations in Tehran and some other cities had not been crowded.

Iran's Tasnim news agency said a run-off election was “very likely” to pick the next president following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash last month.

If no candidate wins at least 50 per cent plus one vote from all ballots cast, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates is held on the first Friday after the result is declared.

reformist and hardliner neck and neck in iran's presidential vote

Hard-line former Iranian senior nuclear negotiator and candidate for the presidential election Saeed Jalili casts his ballot in a polling station, in Tehran, Iran, Friday, June 28, 2024. AP

The election coincides with escalating regional tension due to the war between Israel and Iranian allies Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as increased western pressure on Iran over its nuclear programme.

In April, Iran launched its first direct attack on Israel over the war in Gaza, while militia groups that Tehran arms in the region – such as the Lebanese Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthi rebels – are engaged in fighting and have escalated their attacks.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to enrich uranium at near weapons-grade levels and maintains a stockpile large enough to build, should it choose to do so, several nuclear weapons.

While the election is unlikely to bring a major shift in the Islamic Republic's policies, its outcome could influence the succession to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's 85-year-old supreme leader, in power since 1989.

The clerical establishment sought a high turnout to offset a legitimacy crisis fuelled by public discontent over economic hardship and curbs on political and social freedom.

The next president is not expected to usher in any major policy shift on Iran's nuclear programme or support for militia groups across the Middle East, since Mr Khamenei decides top state matters.

However, the president runs the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran's foreign and domestic policy.

Mr Pezeshkian's views offer a contrast to those of Mr Jalili, advocating detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalisation and political pluralism.

A staunch anti-westerner, a win by Mr Jalili would signal the possibility of an even more antagonistic turn in the Islamic Republic's foreign and domestic policy, analysts said.

With reporting from agencies

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