Led by Bedard, Early NHL Returns are Impressive for the lauded 2023 Draft Class

Connor Bedard Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

Kids these days.

It seems no one told Zach Benson that an 18-year-old rookie shouldn’t have the nerve to attempt a between-the-legs, top-shelf move when trying for his first career NHL goal.

But Benson knows a thing or two about razzle-dazzle. Every summer, he’d travel across Western Canada as his family’s business, West Coast Amusements, presented midway rides and other carnival attractions across the region. At almost every stop, he’d check into the local hockey camp. When he got a little older, he also ran the till at the mini-donut booth.

After finishing third in WHL scoring last season, the native of Chilliwack, B.C. was drafted 13th overall by the Buffalo Sabres last June. He signed to his entry-level contract a month later. After putting up seven points in six pre-season games, Benson made the opening-night roster on a Sabres team that’s rich with high-end young talent.

But after four games, Benson moved to the injured list due to a lower-body issue. He spent the better part of the next month on the sidelines.

Healthy now — and with holes in Buffalo’s forward ranks due to injuries to Tage Thompson and Zemgus Girgensons, as well as Jordan Greenway taking some personal time away from the team, Benson was told Friday that he’d be sticking around to play his 10th NHL game — which crosses the threshold for him to ‘burn’ the first year of his entry-level contract.

Whatever happens now — whether he gets loaned to Team Canada for world juniors or even sent back to junior — Benson will have only two more years of his entry-level contract remaining after this season.

Those years can still potentially ‘slide’ twice if he plays less than 10 games in a future year — and he has plenty of competition within his own organization. The Sabres’ 2021 first-rounder, Isak Rosen, and their 2022 first-round pick, Jiri Kulich, were both summoned from the AHL Rochester Americans on Saturday to help fill roster holes, making their own NHL debuts.

Still — only a handful of freshly drafted players get past the 10-game threshold in any given year. It’s not necessarily a guarantee of future stardom, but it does show an organization’s high regard for an 18-year-old, especially if he’s not a super-high pick like Benson.

Case in point: the other three players from the 2023 draft who have crossed the 10-game threshold so far this year are the trio who were picked right at the top — Connor Bedard, Leo Carlsson and Adam Fantilli.

After the enormous hype that surrounded Bedard’s draft year and his debut in the NHL, the noise meter seems like it has been turned down. With the mystery surrounding Corey Perry’s absence from the Chicago Blackhawks, Bedard hasn’t even been the biggest story on his own team this week. Chicago’s 31st-place rank in the standings doesn’t help him much either.

But with 17 points in 18 games, Bedard is leading all rookies — not just the ones from his draft class, but the older players, too. At 19:42 a game, he leads all rookie forwards in ice time. And his 10th goal on Wednesday was a signature snipe from the left face-off circle into the far side top corner, putting him four goals ahead of any other first-year player.

It’s the curse of the top prospect — and it’s how things are supposed to work. Except in the cases where the draft lottery defies the odds, great young players go to bad teams with the hope that they’ll help those teams get better. But it usually doesn’t happen right away.

Bedard’s 10 goals put him on pace for 45 for the season — and remember, it was just a few years ago when we were impressed when *anybody* scored 45 goals.

Here’s a reminder of the notable first-year stat lines from some of the other top forward picks from recent years:

• 2022: Jiri Slafkovsky – MTL – 39 GP, 4-6-10
• 2019: Jack Hughes – NJD – 61 GP, 7-14-21
• 2017: Nico Hischier – NJD – 82 GP, 20-32-52
• 2016: Auston Matthews – TOR – 82 GP, 40-29-69
• 2015: Connor McDavid – EDM – 45 GP, 16-32-48
• 2013: Nathan MacKinnon – COL – 82 GP, 24-39-63

Yes, scoring has risen league-wide. But if Bedard keeps doing what he’s doing, he can eclipse every one of those rookies.

Even when you factor in the crazy days of the 70s, 80s and 90s, only four rookies of any age have ever exceeded 45 goals in their first full seasons. And none of them were 18:

• 1992-93: Teemu Selanne – WPG – 76 goals – age 22
• 1977-78: Mike Bossy – NYI – 53 goals – age 20-21
• 2005-06: Alex Ovechkin – WAS – 52 goals – age 20
• 1987-88: Joe Nieuwendyk – CAL – 51 goals – age 21

Bedard remains in a class of his own. But the two players who were picked right after him have also shown that they definitely belong in the NHL.

The Anaheim Ducks have adopted a load management strategy with Leo Carlsson, which has limited him to 14 games so far. But his six goals and nine points give him a solid 0.64 points per game. That would extrapolate to 35 goals and 52 points over a full 82-game schedule — also pretty solid compared to the numbers above.

Carlsson missed the first two games of the year with a lower-body injury, so he has actually only been scratched four times over 18 games. If the Ducks continue a similar pattern, he’d get into 62 games this year, and put up about 26 goals and 40 points.

There are two places where Carlsson is ahead of Bedard. His shooting percentage of 20 percent is slightly better than Bedard’s 18.5 percent — although both numbers are outstanding. And Bedard doesn’t have a hat trick yet. Carlsson got his first against the Philadelphia Flyers on Nov. 10, in a losing cause.

Carlsson’s Ducks unexpectedly flirted with a playoff berth earlier this season. But after building their record to 9-6-0, they’ve now lost five in a row, including four-straight games at home.

They’ll travel north to take on the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday.

Meanwhile, over in Columbus, the Blue Jackets snapped a nine-game skid (0-7-2) with wins this week against the Blackhawks and the New Jersey Devils. Amidst all the drama surrounding his new team, third-overall pick Adam Fantilli had seen his average ice time clock in a little lower than Bedard and Carlsson, at 15:45 per game. He’s up to four goals and 10 points in 21 games and has the best face-off percentage of the trio, at 40.2 percent. Bedard’s at 38.8 percent, Carlsson is at 25.4 percent and while Benson is at 50 percent, he has only taken two draws so far — the other three are all over 100.

With an October birthday, Fantilli also has an age advantage over the others. He’s nine months older than Bedard, seven months older than Benson and two months older than Carlsson, who turns 19 in December.

It’s unusual to see the four rookies who earned NHL games immediately after being drafted all cross the 10-game threshold. As the year goes on, call-ups and players who might come out of junior or college at the end of the season could possibly get a few games here and there, but not necessarily crack 10. We’re keeping an eye on you, Will Smith!

And we’ve only seen four first-year rookies burn the first seasons of their entry-level contracts in three years since the 2012-13 lockout.

It happened most recently in 2018-19, when there were five players: Brady Tkachuk (No. 4), Rasmus Dahlin (No. 1), Andrei Svechnikov (No. 2), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (No. 3) and Isac Lundestrom (No. 23).

There were also five in 2016-17:  (No. 1), Patrik Laine (No. 2), Matthew Tkachuk (No. 6), Jakob Chychrun (No. 16) and Jesse Puljujarvi (No. 3). And the class of 2015-16 was led by McDavid (No. 1), of course, and also included Jack Eichel (No. 2), Noah Hanifin (No. 5) and Daniel Sprong (No. 46).