The KPMG Women’s PGA Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

The KPMG Women’s PGA Championship expert picks and predictions with our PGA Pro’s best bets for the 2024 golf tournament

In this betting preview:

• Tournament format breakdown
• Expert picks and predictions
• BetMGM odds to win
• Betting trends from past winners
• Course overview

Na Rin An (+7000) held the lead on Sunday at the Meijer with three holes to go. For the second week in a row, we have witnessed another unfortunate ending. At least we didn’t lose like someone else on Sunday. Another week is here, and this one presents us with another major championship. The KPMG Women's PGA Championship will take place in Sammamish, Washington at Sahalee Country Club. A fabulous forest club, the 27-hole facility is populated by over 7,500 trees. Sahalee has hosted the LPGA before for the KPMG. Brooke Henderson defeated Lydia Ko in a playoff to take the 2016 title at six under par.

Brooke was 18 at the time and this was her first major and second win on tour. Her closing Sunday 65 and fabulous approach on the first playoff hole made the women's golf world take notice. If you get a moment, take a look at ​Sahalee on Google Maps​. Notice the width of each fairway. This course is like no other major championship venue. "Narrow" does not even come close to defining these hallways. I can't imagine how they even fit a field of 156 players on this course. Just kidding, these ladies are the best in the world as all 25 of the top 25 in the Rolex World Ranking are playing this week.

This preview is just that: a preview. For a complete list of my betting predictions covering the KPMG Women's PGA Championship and the Travelers Championship winners, placements, and H2H matchups, please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

The KPMG Women's PGA Championship expert picks and predictions

All odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Best bet to win: Ayaka Furue (+1800)

Furue is coming off three straight top 8 results. That even includes a sixth-place finish at last month's US Women’s Open. The Japanese star is ranked 18th T2G on the LPGA and fourth in fairways hit. Her top-8 finish at a big brutal test like Baltusrol for the 2023 KPMG shows she can handle any length venue.

Furue's ability to attack on approach and putt are the secret weapons I know most will miss. While everyone jumps on a bounceback major for Nelly, I’ll take Ayaka and the trophy.

Best head-to-head matchup: Ally Ewing over Jin Young Ko (-115)

Jin Young Ko is ranked 124th in SG:OTT. That’s a recipe for disaster heading into a week like this. Ally Ewing just felt the heat of contending at the Meijer finishing fourth. A very strong T2G player, Ewing is in good form and has a great opportunity to cash this H2H matchup by Friday evening.

*Best Bet of the week*

Megan Khang to finish top 10 (+450)

Megan Khang could thread a needle with her driver. Her victory at the tree lined Canadian Open in Vancouver last year proved she can definitely keep it in the fairway. The LPGA’s leader in strokes gained T2G this season, Megan just finished runner-up at the ShopRite. Megan’s first major is coming soon, why not at a place where her extreme accuracy gives her a huge advantage to contend.

The KPMG Women's PGA Championship live odds to win

Odds (shorter than +10000) courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

The KPMG Women's PGA Championship: Conditions, winning trends

The simple place to start would be strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT). The problem is, SG:OTT favors length over accuracy. Since accuracy off the tee is our number one, two, and three priority at Sahalee, I have combined the SG:OTT list with fairway accuracy. In doing so, I have come up with a better list of the most accurate and long drivers on tour. These women will have such an advantage over 72-holes. We always talk about how to separate from the field. Usually, those margins are microscopic when it comes to winning and predicting outrights. This is one of those outlier weeks where I believe selecting any players not on this combined list will definitely cook your betting card.

When I compared these two driving categories, I also noticed our outrights were all in the top 18 for strokes gained T2G. That level of validation for the initial research further helps us should our excellent drivers miss a couple of GIRs. Of course, it also implies these women can strike an iron with incredible aplomb. Much like TPC River Highlands, most of the approach shots are played from 125-175 yards. Here is where Sahalee really starts to wear you out. Should you find yourself in the fairway WITH A CLEAR SHOT, then you must take advantage because there will be many holes where even the most accurate in the field will be blocked out.

This course is crazy. The greens are average in size, further placing pressure on each approach. They average 6,000 sq/ft and are covered with Poa Annua. Fifty-six bunkers pop up in all the most unwanted places while six holes bring water into play. Should you reach those putting surfaces, players must be careful not to three-putt. These greens proved tricky in 2016 and even in the 1998 PGA Championship, won by Vijay Singh. His winning total of nine under par proves again how easy it is to make a bogey from the trees or add an extra putt.

Once you punch out, full scramble mode takes over. I have weighed a fair amount of scrambling savvy into my player model. Our outrights are great T2G, so it implies they have around the green acumen. The average par 5 is 516 yards in length. This is the spot to attack. Our outrights are also par 5 birdie machines. To contend come Sunday you will need to be. Too many shots will be lost on the 3s and 4s while players find ways to play pinball through the forest.

Many of the elite LPGA players were rattled at the US Open. In fact, Nelly Korda not only missed the cut at the US Open, she also didn't play the weekend in Michigan at the Meijer as well. With the break before the US Open, Nelly has not played on a weekend day since May 19! Three of our four outrights have played with great results since Lancaster CC. I think it is important to build confidence and keep your game sharp. Sahalee will be a mental grind much like Pinehurst, but in a totally different way. The weather will be cold in the border hours. Tee shots will be supremely tested and remaining patient amongst a number of bad luck bounces will try to test the strongest of resolves.

Maintain your focus for five hours from tee through green and you have a good chance. I really like this card because each woman can REALLY drive the golf ball. Creating chances consistently will definitely put us in the right place to contend again for the third week in a row.

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The KPMG Women's PGA Championship: Sahalee Country Club

The top 70 and ties will make the weekend. The first two majors have been won by well-known names. Can Nelly Korda or Yuka Saso add a second major trophy this year? Or, will it be another major name?

Did you know: 12 of the 15 winners this season hold at least one major trophy. It has been a year of big names taking down the titles. I believe it will be another well-known name here again. Following the LPGA every week, I see trends in the results and have a very good feel for the direction of this season.

Sahalee Country Club is a par 72 layout covering 6,731 yards. Those who remember this venue from 2016 will notice the final hole has been changed from a par 4 to a par 5.

Scoring here is hard enough, as everyone hits from the woods at some point in their round. I guarantee every player has hit their fair share of low runners to get ready for this week. You just cannot help it — the walls of trees down each side are THAT close.

Regular readers know I love alliteration, but seldom use hyperbole — especially when it comes to the course breakdown. Just wait until you see these tee shots. They literally are golf bowling alleys.

The PGA of America will announce the official purse on Wednesday just prior to the start of round one. KPMG has been an incredible partner and continues to support the event beyond expectations. I personally will be forever grateful for the data. That's right, all of the strokes gained data we use to handicap the LPGA is provided to RTL by KPMG!

The forecast looks dry and pleasant for golf in Washington. Temperatures are expected to reach 80 in the first three rounds and the wind should blow right around 10 mph. Sunday will be a little cooler for the conclusion of the year's third major championship. The feel of this site on television is very cool. Take a moment this week and check it out — I promise the scenery will blow your golfing mind.

Read The Line is the leading golf betting insights service led by 5-time award winning PGA Professional Keith Stewart. Read The Line has 30 outright wins and covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR, raising your golf betting acumen week after week. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter and follow us on social media: TikTok, Instagram, Twitter.