Opinion: Bobrovsky's Strong Playoff Run Doesn't Mean Overpaying NHL Goalies Is Worthwhile
Sergei Bobrovsky Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Despite many observers – this observer included – suggesting the Florida Panthers’ contract with goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was an albatross, Bobrovsky has earned his keep in Florida’s current Stanley Cup playoff run.
Bobrovsky is in the fifth year of his seven-year deal, which carries a salary cap hit of $10 million. While the 35-year-old Russian is carrying his share of the load, a look around the NHL underscores the message that the days of overpaying goaltenders should be over.
Certainly, some goalies are going to get significant raises in the near future. New York Rangers netminder Igor Shesterkin will be the high tide that raises all boats, but from this writer’s perspective, it doesn’t make sense to pay him $11 million or $12 million.
For instance, look at Anaheim starter John Gibson, who signed an eight-year, $51.2-million contract extension that began in 2019-20. As Gibson has struggled year in and year out, his annual average salary of $6.4 million has proven to be unmovable. Anaheim would have to retain part of that salary – and likely attach a sweetener – to make Gibson a fit with a trade partner now.
If you think Gibson is an outlier, you need only turn to the New York Islanders’ most recent playoff run as another example.
If you’d told people at the start of the current season that star netminder Ilya Sorokin would sit on the bench and backup Semyon Varlamov would be doing the heavy lifting in the playoffs, you would’ve been laughed out of the conversation. But that’s exactly what happened on Long Island in the first round against Carolina.
Sorokin now faces questions about his dependability right before he begins an eight-year contract extension that pays him $8.25 million per year. We’re not suggesting Sorokin has lost his competitive edge, but forget about his drop in play; his deal also tells us that even the best-regarded goalies aren’t going to get to Bobrovsky’s pay level. Even if they do get to that level, there will be significant risk for the team that pays a goalie that much money.
If Florida does win the Cup, people will climb out of the woodwork to tell you the Panthers were right to sign Bobrovsky to his mammoth contract. But Bobrovsky’s contract is the exception that proves the rule – the rule being that teams should be extremely wary of handing out big-money, big-term contracts to netminders. For the most part of Bobrovsky's current contract so far, he’s been overpaid for the results he’s delivered.
Shesterkin deserves every penny of the raise he’ll get next summer from the Rangers, but for most teams, overpaying and/or overextending goaltenders is risky business indeed.
There’s a good reason why there are only three goalies in the top 50 highest-paid players in the NHL. Even then, the other two goalies in the top 50, Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy ($9.5 million annually) and Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck ($8.5 million) are paid less than Bobrovsky on long-term deals.
It’s the preference of many Cup-winning teams to spend big bucks on elite forwards and defensemen and to leave goaltenders in the mid-tier range of their cap spending. That’s what Colorado did with Darcy Kuemper. That’s what Vegas did with Adin Hill, and that’s what St. Louis did with Jordan Binnington. Even Nashville’s Juuse Saros – who hasn’t won anything of note – will likely be paid less than $10 million when he becomes a UFA next summer. The $10-million mark is a red line that few teams are willing to cross.
Besides, Panthers management will feel redeemed if Bobrovsky leads them to a Cup win this year, but if we had a vote for the Conn Smythe Trophy, we’d give it to star forward and Florida captain Aleksander Barkov. Bobrovsky has been consistently above average, but we just haven’t seen him steal that many games in this playoff run, with Game 1 against the Oilers being a notable exception. But from our perspective, the Panthers’ play in front of Bobrovsky has been the story of the post-season.
You can’t win a Cup with a bad goaltender, but you can win one with a slightly above-average goalie. So it’s no wonder teams look to cut costs by giving their netminders as frugal a contract as possible. You have to be extremely careful with the money you spend on goaltenders, because if you make a mistake on the cap hit or contract term you pay out, you’ll be stuck with an asset (nahsset?) that can’t be moved.
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