Trump leads Biden by 18 points in Iowa in troubling sign for president in 2024 swing states
Former President Donald Trump seems slated to improve massively on his 2020 victory in Iowa — meaning President Biden could face even more trouble in swing states he won narrowly that year.
The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll of 632 likely voters shows Trump leading Biden 50% to 32%. The survey included third-party candidates, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 9%.
Pollster Frank Luntz says the data should not be taken lightly.
According to a recent poll, former President Donald Trump is leading President Biden in Iowa by 18 points. AP Photo/Carlos Osorio
“In 2020, Trump won Iowa by +8 points,” Luntz tweeted. “Now, Iowa’s best pollster shows him up +18 in the state — which is bad news for Biden in more competitive Midwestern states, like Wisconsin and Michigan.”
He noted that pollster’s “final poll in October had Trump up +7, and he won by +8.”
The survey was conducted June 9 to 14 — after Trump’s conviction in Manhattan’s Stormy Daniels hush-money trial. His lead is well outside the 3.9% margin of error.
Notably, the poll found 76% of likely Trump voters and 81% of likely Biden voters say they’ve made up their minds and aren’t persuadable.
Trump beat Biden in Iowa by 8 percent in the 2020 election. Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Trump supporters at a rally in Ford Dodge, Iowa on Nov. 18, 2023. Photo by Jim Vondruska/Getty Images
Among all Iowa adults, Biden’s approval rating is an anemic 28%. He does worst among those under 35, with just 15% approving.
In 2016, Trump defeated former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the general election by roughly 10%.
Iowa only carries six electoral votes, but these numbers are part of a wave of positive polling news for the Republican, who has a 0.8% average spread lead over the incumbent from May 28 to June 11, per RealClearPolitics.