How D-Day and Reform have cost Sunak the postal vote, according to experts

Time is running out for the Conservative Party to win over voters, Britain’s top polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice has warned as postal vote packs have begun to arrive in homes across the country.

Pressure is mounting on the Conservatives as a key milestone in the journey to the general election approaches. Voters have until 5pm on Wednesday to apply for a postal ballot if they want to vote via this method in the general election on 4 July.

But political analysts are warning it may already be too late for the Tories to change many of these voters’ intentions.

Postal voters typically return their ballots within days of receiving them, meaning their decision can be significantly influenced by events in the early stages of the election campaign. Some of the first votes of the election will already have been cast.

Political scientist Sir John Curtice said the Tories have failed to narrow the polls (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Sir John, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told i that with only three weeks left, the Conservatives face an increasingly difficult challenge.

The political scientist, who has said there is a 99 per cent chance Sir Keir Starmer is going to be the next prime minister, said the Tories have so far failed to achieve their objective of narrowing the gap with Labour in the polls.

“Older voters are somewhat more likely to vote by post and older voters are more likely to vote Conservative,” Sir John said, adding: “For the most part the die was cast a long time ago.”

He said Rishi Sunak has now been forced to operate “a damage limitation exercise” but warned the PM that “time is running out”.

“It gets more and more difficult the further you get to polling day,” Sir John said. “Basically, the Conservatives’ campaign, which was designed to try and narrow the poll lead, has failed to achieve its objective entirely.”

He added: “They spend a lot of time attacking Labour. They spend very little time attacking Reform, but they’re now losing twice as many votes to Reform as they are to Labour.

“So it does raise questions about whether or not they need to come up with a better line to attack Reform other than if you vote for Reform, you’re letting Labour in.”

Sir John believes Mr Sunak’s D-Day commemorations blunder likely had a bigger impact on his personal reputation than his party’s, but said the Conservatives’ campaign overall raised questions.

“They were so low already that there wasn’t much left to take off,” he said.

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Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said: “The Conservative campaign has been sort of stuttering at best, a disaster at worst. So, in as much as postal votes are affected by campaign events, then you would expect that this would be to the disadvantage of the Conservatives.

“It’s difficult to see what the Conservatives could do positively to make a difference. So I would suggest that if there’s going to be a campaign event that makes a difference to people voting by post, it would probably be a cock-up by the Labour Party rather than some master stroke by the Tories.”

There has been a significant increase in the number of people voting by post, with one in five now casting their ballot this way.

“There’s been a tenfold increase since 1979,” Professor Bale said. “In 1979, postal voting made up about 2 per cent of the valid votes. And in 2019 it was 21 per cent. So it’s now about one fifth of all people who vote vote by post.”

Professor Bale said postal votes tend to favour whichever party is ahead in the general election campaign at the time they are sent out.

“Arguably, what it does do is advantage the party that is ahead in the opinion polls during the campaign in the early stages. So in other words, whoever’s ahead when the postal votes packs start being received might obtain an advantage.

“But it’s not altogether clear that that is a huge advantage, nor is it ever the case that it seems to advantage the Conservatives over Labour or vice versa,” he said.

Postal voting: key dates

• In order to vote in the general election on 4 July, you must be registered to vote by 11.59pm on Tuesday 18 June.
• If you intend to vote by post, you need to register for a postal vote by 5pm on Wednesday 19 June.
• Postal voting packs will be sent out approximately three weeks before polling day.
• If you are yet to return your postal vote and want to cancel it, you will need to contact your local council to request this by 5pm, 11 working days before the election. Any postal votes already returned cannot be cancelled.
• All postal votes must be in receipt of the election team at your local council by 10pm on polling day in order to be counted.
• If you are unable to send your postal vote in time, you can take it to your polling station on 4 July.

Senior Conservatives have conceded the party is facing an uphill battle. Grant Shapps’ became the first minister to concede that the Tories are unlikely to win at the general election on Monday morning.

Asked if a Conservative victory was unlikely, the Defence Secretary told Times Radio: “I think that’s the realistic position, isn’t it? I mean, I live in the real world. So you know, let’s not try and pretend black is white.”

Mr Shapps comments comes after fellow Cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt said the election result is “not a foregone conclusion”, but conceded her party is now “the underdog”.

Election 2024

Rishi Sunak, Sir Keir Starmer and other party leaders are on the campaign trail, and i‘s election live blog is the go-to place for everything on the general election.

On Monday, the Lib Dems launched their manifesto, followed by the Tory manifesto launch on Tuesday, which included a further cut to national insurance. On Wednesday, the Green Party launched its manifesto, which it hopes will secure them some important seats.

Labour’s manifesto launch on Thursday was interrupted by a protester urging for more policies for youth, but Starmer was undeterred as he announced changes to voting age and confirmed his party’s position on tax and spending cuts.

i has urged the parties to commit to its Save Britain’s Rivers manifesto to improve our waterways. The Lib Dems became the first to back the campaign, followed by the Green Party.