Ukraine Ground Forces commander on critical phase of war, Russian advance and threat to Kyiv

Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Pavliuk (Vitalii Nosach, RBC-Ukraine)

Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, gave an interview to The Economist. He suggested a critical phase in the war in the coming months, spoke about Russia's plans and said that the enemy has not given up on the idea of capturing Kyiv.

Read General Pavliuk's key statements below.

Contents

・Critical phase of war

・About F-16s

・Russia will continue to focus on Luhansk and Donetsk regions

・About Chasiv Yar

・Enemy has not abandoned idea of capturing Kyiv

・About Russia's strategic failure

・Mobilization in Ukraine

Critical phase of war

According to Pavliuk, the critical phase of the war will come in the next two months, as American aid has just started to arrive at the front line, while Russian generals are ordering all combat-ready weapons they have to throw in to test Ukrainian troops that are currently short of weapons.

"Russia knows that if we receive enough weapons within a month or two, the situation could turn against them," says the commander.

About F-16s

The general notes that Ukraine also urgently needs to strengthen its air defense. According to him, the expected delivery of F-16 fighters by early June will give a powerful psychological boost.

As The Economist notes, it is yet not clear whether Ukraine will receive the newer version of the F-16 (Block 50) to challenge Russian bombers, which stay at a distance, outside the range of Ukrainian air defense, and drop heavy guided bombs on the front lines.

Russia will continue to focus on Luhansk and Donetsk regions

According to the commander, Russia will continue to focus on the full occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. As Ukrainian intelligence officers have previously found out, the Russian army will soon strengthen its defense by attacking the northeastern areas of Kharkiv and Sumy regions.

"Russia is testing the stability of our lines before choosing the most suitable direction," the general said.

About Chasiv Yar

The Economist says that Pavlyuk refuses to comment on reports that "miscommunication led to the loss of positions" in Ocheretyne. According to him, the Russian military managed to break through thanks to insane pressure and air superiority, as well as anartillery ratio that reached 20:1. According to him, Russian guns are firing 7 times more shells than Ukrainian ones along the entire frontline.

According to The Economist, the commander says that the loss of ChasivYar would not be "decisive" because it is "a regular urban settlement."

Enemy has not abandoned idea of capturing Kyiv

The media adds that one of the most urgent tasks on the general's desk is to train 10 new brigades to prepare for the Russian offensive. According to Pavliuk, the main problem now is equipment, not people.

He says that part of these new forces will be deployed to protect the capital. After all, two and a half years after the Russian army stalled there, it has not given up on the idea of capturing Kyiv.

"Defending Kyiv remains one of our main concerns, no matter how tough it is in the east. It is the heart of Ukraine, and we know the key role defense of the capital will play in the future," Pavliuk said.

About Russia's strategic failure

The general says that the threat coming from Russia is fundamentally different from the one that was at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. According to him, Russia can no longer launch large-scale offensives on several fronts. Besides, the enemy is using missiles only a few weeks after they are produced, not as it used to from its huge stockpiles. Pavliuk also stresses that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are also much larger than they used to be.

The commander argues that this story will turn out to be a strategic failure for Russia. Because losing so many troops (over 400,000 killed, wounded, and captured) to capture a small part is disproportionate to any rational mind, Pavliuk says, adding that history has shown that Russia is not ruled by rational minds.

Mobilization in Ukraine

When it comes to unpopular subjects such as mobilization, he says, every official needs to show leadership. Faced with mortal danger, some citizens panic, and this is natural, but if the country wants to survive, people must "overcome panic" and respond to the call to fight, as they do in countries such as Israel, the media quotes the general as saying.

"However hard it is, we have no other choice," Pavliuk concluded.

Earlier, Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavliuk, Commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, gave an interview to The Times. He said that the Russian troops did have a plan for the possible capture of two cities - Kharkiv and Sumy, but it was not clear how serious they were.

Today Russian troops began to cover with heavy fire the border settlements in the northern Kharkiv region. The military and political leadership later reported that along with this massive shelling, Russia launched a new offensive, but the attacks are currently being repelled. Read more in a separate RBC-Ukraine coverage.