Potential Celtics free agent targets
Potential Celtics free agent targets
With the impact of the new CBA, free agency will probably change. Will teams be less willing to hand out big contracts in fear of hitting the dreaded second apron? Will teams be willing to throw more money at their own free agents whose Bird Rights they possess, knowing that their ability to replace talent is more difficult? My guess is the second question will be answered in the affirmative and we will see lots of teams retaining Bird Right free agents. This goes double because many teams are losing the mid-level exception due to the second apron, the Celtics are one of those teams.
Long story short, the Celtics are very limited in what they can do to sign other teams’ free agents. With that in mind, I’ve put together a list of what I believe are potential free agents that may be willing to take a minimum, which is the only contract the Celtics can offer. I also tried to take into account the Bird Rights of their current team, whether full or early. A free agent without Bird Rights is far more likely to change teams because their former team is limited in how much they can offer. In other words, without Bird Rights, the player’s former team has no bargaining advantage over any other team in the league, if they are over the cap, they are limited to offering one of the free agency exceptions: minimum, mid-level, or bi-annual. Contract information from Spotrac.com.
Guards
Seth Curry - UFA/Non-Bird
Pts-Reb-Ast: 5.4-1.6-1.0
FG%-3FG%-FT%: 39.2%-35.2%-90.3%
Seth Curry had a bit of a down season last year, which was injury plagued. He appeared in only 42 games and was sent to Charlotte around the deadline as a part of the PJ Washington trade. His 3-point % has dropped three years straight, from 45%, to 42.2%, to 40.5%, and finally at 35.2%. That’s probably a solid explanation for why his minutes dropped from 19.5 to 14.6 from 2022-23 to 2023-24 season, and a potential reason why he’s available on a minimum.
That said, Seth has a much longer track record of being an elite 3-point shooter than middling. He’s a similar guard to Pritchard but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. He knows how to play, spaces the floor, and provides a bit of ball handling. He’s a negative defensive player, but the Celtics can get by with that during the regular season. I think he could fit in pretty seamlessly in two-guard lineups playing next to either Derrick or Jrue and could handle a bigger role if one of the guards sits or is injured.
Shake Milton - UFA/Non-Bird
4.5-1.6-1.3
40.5%-28.1%-81.6%
Shake had by far the worst year of his career last season. Coming off a very solid 22-23 where he averaged 8.4-2.5-3.2 and shot 47.8% and 37.8% from three, every number plummeted in 23-24. He started the year with a foot injury at the end of October, and he just never seemed to get comfortable all season.
Look, I don’t think Shake is a high-level role player, but he’s shown flashes of being a solid offensive player in his 6 years in the NBA. He’s got decent size for a guard (6’5” with a 7’ wingspan), gives you a little ball handling, and can get hot in a hurry. He’s still only 27 years old and has shown enough that he will probably stick around in the league for a while. If he can find his shooting touch again and Mazzulla can get him to play some defense, he’d be a really nice option off the bench for the Cs.
Wings
Joe Ingles - UFA/Non-Bird
4.4-2.1-3.0
43.6%-43.5%-82.4%
Jingles and the next player are the dream vet minimum signings for me. Unlike Curry and Milton, where you are hoping they bounce back from a down year, with Jingles you just hope he can keep it up for one more season. Joe is very much in the twilight of his career and the defensive short comings were always there. They have only gotten worse. That said, he’s an offensive savant, averaging 3 assists per game in only 17 minutes while having a minimal role just shows how intelligent Ingles is.
Joe is absolutely a dribble, pass, shoot guy on offense, which the Celtics value. He can run a pick and roll, is an elite spot up guy, and has the same connective passing DNA as Derrick White. He’s also 6’9”, which helps limit some of his defensive issues. The concern is that he will be going into his age 37 season. At some point, guys just lose it, and that is very much a risk with Ingles. That said, the offensive fit make it a worthwhile, and pretty small, gamble.
Gordon Hayward - UFA/Bird
9.8-3.5-3.1
46.4%-41.1%-74.2%
Hayward’s inclusion here could look pretty silly given that OKC has his Bird Rights. He very well could sign a 3 year $40m contract a day after this article goes live. Part of me thinks that OKC wants to move on though. He just didn’t fit all that well with them and played a massively reduced role in the NBA Playoffs. OKC’s team is going to get very expensive soon. I don’t think they’d want to invest significant capital into a guy that won’t crack their playoff rotation. There’s additional risk that another team could offer him the mid-level, taxpayer or non, and the Celtics would have absolutely no way of matching that.
The hope is that Hayward feels he’s made enough money and wants to finish what he started in Boston. I don’t know how realistic that is but let me dream. While he’s lost a step defensively, maybe two, he’s still a high IQ offensive player. Another dribble, pass, shoot guy that was absolutely lights out from 3 last year. He, like Ingles, has good size for a forward and could play next to just about anyone on the roster, including Sam Hauser. Hayward has definitely declined, is in his mid-30s, and has struggled with injuries, so his production might continue to degrade, but on a minimum, he’s worth it.
Reggie Bullock - UFA/Non-Bird
2.2-1.7-0.3
41.5%-10.3%-100%
I’m not going to spend much time on Bullock. He had an awful year last year on the Rockets, after two solid seasons in Dallas. He’s extremely limited offensively, but he makes threes and is a solid defensive player with size (6’7”). I see him as the Brissett replacement if Oshae decides he wants to head somewhere with more playing time available. Brissett played 600 minutes for the Cs last year, and I could see Bullock soaking up those minutes and doing a decent job.
Bigs
Andre Drummond - UFA/Early-Bird
8.4-9.0-0.5
55.6%-N/A-59.2%
I think we all know what Drummond can give a team. Elite rebounding, solid screen setter, and not nearly as good defensively as it feels like he should be. Drummond had a decent year for the Bulls, and still has flashes of the double-double monster he was in his earlier years. He will, shockingly, only be entering his age 31 season next year. That does not feel possible, but it’s the truth.
I’d only target Drummond if Luke Kornet or Xavier Tillman walks. I think Kornet fits what the Cs want to do on both ends better than Drummond. Better rim protector, better finisher around the rim, and a world’s better passer. But Drummond has some clear positives, and if one of the Cs’ free agent centers walk, would be a solid backup big behind the one that stays.
One note, Chicago has Drummond’s Early Bird Rights, which means they can offer him a contract worth more than the minimum. If they do so, there is almost no chance he will pass that up to sign a minimum with the Celtics. No one ever knows what the Bulls will do next, but if he hits the market, I suspect there will be mutual interest between Drummond and Boston.
Daniel Theis - UFA/Non-Bird
6.3-4.1-1.0
53.2%-36.6%-76.0%
While Theis has lost some of his lateral quickness and vertical athleticism as he’s aged, he’s still very much a solid NBA big. Had his second best 3-point shooting season last year and gave the Clippers solid minutes when called upon (averaged 16.9 mpg in 60 games). If the shooting keeps up, Theis could age very gracefully. Another nice bonus, Theis actually makes his free throws (looking at you Drummond), which is always a plus out of a center.
He’s not the switchy rim protector that he was in Boston, but he’s still a very solid and smart defensive player. Theis is well loved by the fanbase, and I could see him wanting to return if one of Kornet or Tillman walks and some minutes open up. I doubt he would sign up to be the 5th center, but he would be a solid plan B if one of those guys gets a larger offer elsewhere. 3rd times the charm, bring back the big German.
Upside swings
JT Thor - UFA/Bird
3.2-2.3-0.5
43.7%-34.6%-55.0%
Charlotte declined Thor’s fourth year option, which means he will become a UFA. That’s likely an indication that Charlotte is moving on from Thor, but they could technically offer him above a minimum deal since they have his Bird Rights.
His stats are tepid, but I think Thor is an interesting prospect. He’s a dynamic vertical athlete with great size for a forward (6’9” and 203 lbs.) and the three started to go in last year on a tiny sample size (81 attempts). He’s extremely raw on both ends and shot the ball poorly from 2-point range, but his physical tools give him a high ceiling. If he figures out the shot for real, and Mazzulla can coat him in whatever fairy dust he used to get Hauser to be solid defensive player, Thor could really blossom.
The problem is that the Cs can only offer him a 2-year deal, which means you can’t get his full Bird Rights, so if he really hits, he’s probably out the door before you can reap all the benefits. Nonetheless, I like Thor as a low risk, high reward play.
Tristan Vukcevic - UFA/Non-Bird
8.5-3.6-1.3
61.3%-27.8%-77.3%
This is a deep cut. Vukcevic has played 10 NBA games and only played an average of 15 minutes in those games. The stats don’t jump out at you, but he’s got some pedigree. He was the 42nd overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He is a legit 7-footer and has shown flashes of being competent with the ball in his hands and shooting it from 3. He will never be a switchable defender, but he’s big enough that he could go to Luke Kornet rim protection camp and provide some value on that end. He’s got an extremely long way to go but stretch bigs with real size are hard to find, you might be able to develop one if you take a shot on Vuk.
It’s worth nothing that Keith Smith mentioned in March he thinks Vuk is on his way back to Washington, but followed up saying his was speculating. Right now, though, he’s a UFA, and if the Celtics have an opportunity, I think they should pounce.
So, there you have it. I don’t think I’ve ever correctly called a minimum signing made in the Brad Stevens era, including when he was coach, so you can safely cross these guys off your list. I like a lot of these names, but even if we get none of them, I know one thing for sure, I trust Brad Stevens.