NL East odds update: Can Braves catch Phillies or is it too late for two-team divisional race?
NL East odds update: Can Braves catch Phillies or is it too late for two-team divisional race?
As we run through our weekly look at a division and the odds, it's now time to hit the National League East. It doesn't look overly compelling. Though the Nationals and Mets are absolutely wild-card contenders at this point, they aren't factors in the divisional race. The Marlins have long since been an afterthought, which means we're left with just two teams.
The Phillies are 53-28 while the Braves are 44-35, which means it's an eight-game lead for the Phils.
I should point out that there are apparently enough people excited about the Mets to push their odds down to +8000 (as opposed to the +25000 number on the Nats), but it isn't even worth a sprinkle. The Mets will not win the NL East. We can all be realistic about that.
Basically, the only question here is whether or not this thing is over. Will the Phillies definitely win the NL East or do the Braves have a shot? Let's dive in.
Braves +270
They already have an eight-game deficit and aren't getting Ronald Acuña Jr. or Spencer Strider back. The farm system is a bit dried up after years of trading prospects and promoting studs quickly. This is to say that while it'll be possible to add help on the margins in front of the trade deadline, I wouldn't be expecting a huge, needle-moving transaction. Any improvement here needs to be internal.
It's possible. Maybe Bryce Elder pitches a lot better while players like Matt Olson, Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies hit like it's 2023, when the Braves became the first team to ever slug .500 in a season (it's barely over .400 this year).
If there's any hope here, it stems from two things:
1. The Braves' ability to finish strong in recent years. In 2022, the Braves were 10.5 games back on June 1 and still won the division with a monster finish. In 2021, they weren't over .500 at all until Aug. 6. After being five games back on Aug. 1, they went 36-18 the rest of the way and then they won the World Series. The troops in the clubhouse can rally around the message of "we've done this before."
2. The head-to-head matchups. The Braves and Phillies have only played each other three times so far. That leaves 10 more, starting next weekend with a three-game series in Atlanta. The Brewers last season took control of the NL Central by dominating the Reds head-to-head. The Braves could really carve into the deficit here by beating the Phillies themselves.
If you want to bet on the Braves, there's your opening.
Phillies -450
The Phillies have a high-powered offense led by MVP-caliber slugger Bryce Harper. They survived several weeks with Trea Turner hurt and they're getting by fine right now without J.T. Realmuto. While it looks like Alec Bohm is having a career year, it's not like they are surviving on players being way too hot with unsustainable runs. Nick Castellanos and Bryson Stott are capable of better, for example.
The rotation is the best in baseball by ERA and is second in innings pitched, paving the way for them to lead in rotation WAR. Basically, they have the best rotation in baseball in terms of preventing runs and they are workhorses, too. Maybe Ranger Suárez and Christopher Sanchez will be pushing it a bit late in the season with expanded workloads, but otherwise there's no reason to believe this group will hit a wall.
The bullpen is great and, again, there isn't much reason to believe it'll fall apart.
Basically, this is an elite team and it has the look of one that can and will sustain this level of success all season.
The Play
I'll just stay away.
The best play is to grab a time machine and hit the Phillies at plus money before the season started, when the Braves were overwhelming favorites. Absent that, it depends on if you want to take on this much juice. I firmly believe the Phillies are winning this division, but am I going to pay -450 to bet on it? I'll pass.