Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

May 15, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Martin Perez (54) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves (44-35) welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates (39-41) to Truist Park on Friday for the 1st game of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Pirates vs. Braves odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Pirates lead 2-1

The Braves lost to the Chicago White Sox 1-0 Thursday in a make-up game. Atlanta has lost 2 straight and is just 2-4 over its last 6 games. It will return home after a 7-game road trip and the Braves are 5-1 in their last 6 home games and 24-13 for the season. The Braves are 37-42 against the spread (ATS).

The Pirates, who are 20-21 on the road, have won 2 straight games and are 5-4 in their last 9. Pittsburgh is coming off a 6-1 road win over the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, closing as +121 on the moneyline. It is 4-4 over its last 8 on the road. The Pirates are 42-38 ATS on the season.

Pirates at Braves projected starters

LHP Martin Perez vs. RHP Charlie Morton

Perez (1-3, 4.71 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 57 1/3 IP.

• Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in an 8-1 home loss to the Atlanta Braves on May 26
• 2024 away splits: 1-1, 4.88 ERA (27 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.55 WHIP, 6 HR, 5.5 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Braves: 0-1, 3.48 ERA (10 1/3 IP,4 ER), 1.84 WHIP, 6.1 K/9 in 2 starts

Morton (4-4, 4.20 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 in 79 1/3 IP.

• Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 5 BB, 4 K in an 8-3 road loss to the New York Yankees Saturday
• 2024 home splits: 2-2, 4.12 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.37 WHIP, 3 HR, 8.9 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Pirates: 0-0, 6.00 ERA (6 IP, 4 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 18.0 K/9 in 1 start

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Pirates at Braves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:58 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Braves -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-134) | Braves -1.5 (+112)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -124 | U: +102)

Pirates at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Braves 4, Pirates 3

Moneyline

PASS.

While the Pirates could pull off the upset, the better play here is to back the road side on the run line.

The Braves haven't been playing well enough over the last week to back here and aren't worthy of a play as it will cost you almost 2x your bet in potential return.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PIRATES +1.5 (-130).

The Pirates are a streaky team and have been both incredible for betters on the run line after a win and as an underdog. They are 32-15 ATS as an underdog this season, the 4th-best record in the MLB, and they are 24-14 ATS following a win.

Meanwhile, while Atlanta has 1 of the best home records in the MLB, it is just 17-20 ATS at home. Without much difference in the strength of the starting pitcher, take PIRATES +1.5 (-130) to keep the game close.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (+102).

The Braves have gone Under in 2 straight games and in 4 of their last 5. Atlanta has scored 3 or fewer in 5 of its last 6 games as well. It is 30-46-3 O/U on the season.

Pittsburgh's offense has been better as of late, but it still has scored 3 or fewer in 4 of its last 8 games and has tallied 5 or fewer in 6 of those. The Pirates are 37-40-3 O/U on the season. Take UNDER 8.5 (+102).

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions