Key inflation gauge matches estimates
Yes, yields are dropping. So anything as expected or even slightly better news, of course pushes the metrics of Fed easing and all the associated market activity. If we look at income for May, it was up half of 1%, better than expected and it's the juiciest level in ties. March when it was up half 1%. We started the year up 1.1%. Now if we look at spending, spending is less than expected. So the incomes holding up the spending dropping a bit up 2/10, which actually was last month, but last month got revised only up 110th real spending adjusting for inflation. 3/10 in March it was up 4/10 and at the beginning of the year it was down 3/10. If we look at the price indices and this is the main reason we're seeing the market move that we are with lower interest rates, PCE price the next month over month unchanged as expected, but that does follow up. 3/10 unchanged equals November of last year. To find a smaller number, you're going down 4/10 of a percent. That's all the way back in April of 2020 if you look at a month over month of the PCE price. What we're looking at there, excuse me, a month or year over year, excuse me, is 2.6, and that is 110th less than last look. So we're making some progress. It's still not 2%, but many say it doesn't matter if you reach the target, as long as the Fed is confident we're going to get closer to 2.2 percent. 2.6 actually isn't the lowest of the year. We had 2.5 the first two months of the year, just to put a face on it. Now, if you look at PCE. Core, and this is a month over month. It's up 110th, exactly as expected in the rearview mirror, there was actually an upward revision from up 2/10 to up 3/10, up 110th. To find a smaller number, you're going back to November of last year when it was up .09. And finally, year over year 2.6, this is the core, maybe the most important number, and that follows. 2.82.6 is the lightest level, and I'm going to have to go back a bit here. 2.6, the lightest level going all the way back to March of 21 when it was 2.25. So once again, the markets say it all. We've dropped a few basis points from 4:30 to 4:27 and change on A10 and we have made progress. The real question is, is how's the Federal Reserve going to handle progress in a world where inflation may return and be bumpy? Are they going to be flexible and lower rates bit only to raise them again? These are all questions that we really need to answer and I don't know that we're going to get enough data points to do it before we get the 1st East, which still looks like September. Back to you, Andrew.