Up to 60,000 migrants set for Rwanda could be granted asylum under Labour

Migrants board a smuggler's boat near Dunkirk in an attempt to cross the Channel earlier this year. There were the 28,529 small boat arrivals in the year May 2023 to April 2024. - SAMEER AL-DOUMY/AFP

Up to 60,000 migrants earmarked for deportation to Rwanda could be granted asylum under Labour’s plans, according to analysis by the Refugee Council.

The charity also forecast that 27,000 more migrants will cross the Channel by the end of this year, adding to the backlog of asylum claims that an incoming Labour government would have to process.

Sir Keir Starmer has pledged to scrap Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda deportation scheme from day one of a Labour government.

That would mean the outstanding 90,000 migrants who are earmarked for removal to the central African state but currently in limbo would be switched to the asylum system.

The Refugee Council said it was a “reasonable potential estimate” that some 70 per cent - or about 60,000 of the 90,000 - would be granted asylum given the profile of the countries from which most illegal migrants came.

This is an extrapolation from the 28,529 small boat arrivals in the year May 2023 to April 2024 where their country profiles suggested 73 per cent of them could be expected to be granted asylum.

A third of these small boat arrivals were from countries where more than 80 per cent of their asylum claims are granted.

They are Sudan (with a 99 per cent asylum grant rate), Eritrea (99 per cent), Syria (99 per cent), Afghanistan (98 per cent) and Iran (83 per cent).

The Refugee Council suggested Labour could almost immediately start transferring the 90,000 migrants to the asylum system even before the party repeals Mr Sunak’s Illegal Migration Act.

Section 30 of the Act gives the home secretary the discretion to override deportation and grant migrants “limited leave to enter or limited leave to remain in the UK”.

It is understood that Labour has been scrutinising the Illegal Migration Act and is said to be “broadly of the view” that it could use section 30 to start processing asylum claims without having to pass new legislation.

The Tories are expected to accuse Labour of effectively granting the migrants an amnesty, although Labour argues that the Tories have given them a “hotel amnesty” by having failed to get a single flight off to Rwanda and holding them in hotels.

Nearly 36,000 migrants are currently being accommodated in hotels, more than half of which are from high asylum grant countries costing the taxpayer £2.9 million a day.

‘Start saving money’

Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, has pledged to end hotel use within a year and to “start saving money straight away,” but Labour will face an increasing backlog unless it can stop the boats crossing the Channel.

If the distribution of arrivals throughout 2024 reflects the previous three years then about 40,300 migrants will have crossed the Channel by the end of this year, according to the research.

More than 13,000 migrants have crossed the Channel in small boats so far this year, which is higher than all previous years.

If the forecasts in the Refugee Council’s report are correct, then a further 27,200 migrants will arrive by the end of the year.

The year’s final tally would be higher than last year, when 29,437 arrived, but not as much as the record high of 45,755 in 2022.

The Refugee Council warned that Labour will face a major challenge to deal with the huge numbers of asylum seekers stuck in the system, as well as the significant cost of accommodating and processing them.

‘Empty rhetoric’

Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, said: “The next government must seize the opportunity to rescue and reform our asylum system, which is dysfunctional and chaotic after years of political stunts and empty rhetoric.”

On Thursday, Sir Keir appeared to rule out a migrant returns deal with Afghanistan, acknowledging that it would be unsafe to return asylum seekers to the country.

The Labour leader also dismissed Rishi Sunak’s claim that he would “sit down with the ayatollahs” in a bid to strike a similar agreement with Iran.

However, he said a Labour government would work with “whoever is in power in France” on tackling migrant Channel crossings if Marine Le Pen’s Right-wing party won the upcoming parliamentary elections.

A Labour party spokesman said: “This report makes clear the appalling chaos that the Conservatives have created in the asylum system with record numbers of people arriving on dangerous boat crossings this spring and a soaring, costly backlog.

“This is entirely due to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives’ failure to properly manage our borders. Returns are down 40 per cent since Labour left office, whilst his failed migration bill means people are allowed to stay indefinitely regardless of their right to be in the UK.

”Labour will establish a new Border Security Command to smash the gangs upstream and prevent boats reaching the French coast in the first place. We will clear the backlog, with a fast track system for safe countries and a new Returns Unit to end the extortionate use of hotels, saving billions of pounds for the taxpayer.”

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