Feared Tory election rout could leave taxpayers with a £35MILLION bill

The feared Tory election rout could leave taxpayers with a £35million bill for departing MPs.

The Independent Parliamentary Standards Authority has estimated that each politician leaving the Commons costs £116,000 on average.

But polls are indicating that July 4 could see one of the most dramatic shifts ever, with Rishi Sunak struggling to head off a Labour landslide.

Some huge surveys - using the so-called MRP methodology - have projected that the Tories could lose around 300 of the 365 seats they secured in 2019.

That is partly due to the impact of Reform splitting the right-wing vote, allowing Keir Starmer and the Lib Dems to rack up victories.

But polls are indicating that July 4 could see one of the most dramatic shifts ever in the House of Commons (file picture), with Rishi Sunak struggling to head off a Labour landslide

A Find Out Now survey carried out with Electoral Calculus using MRP methodology projected the Tories could be slashed to just 60 seats, behind the Lib Dems on 71

2019

2024 projection

Using Ipsa's estimate of the 'average marginal cost', departures on such a scale would give a bill of nearly £35million - although the Tories have already lost some seats due to by-elections triggered by MPs quitting or being ejected.

Another 30 Labour MPs have announced they are standing down, which would add around £3.5million.

The actual cost for hundreds of MPs are likely to be higher, as when the Ipsa estimate was prepared earlier this year there was little expectation that the Tories would face a wipeout on the scale now anticipated by polls.

The watchdog stressed that the £116,000 figure covers elements such as redundancy for MPs' staff and settling contracts that have been cut short, as well as politicians' salaries during the winding up period.

However, those who stand for re-election and are defeated get a 'loss of office' payment alongside other funds, which will almost certainly push up the average bill.

Yesterday We Think research using MRP suggested Labour could get a majority of 280 - the biggest in modern political history.

That poll saw the Conservatives reduced to just 76 MPs.

But a Find Out Now survey carried out with Electoral Calculus projected an even more dramatic outcome. It found the Tories could be slashed to just 60 seats, behind the Lib Dems with 71.

In that scenario, the Conservatives would not be the official opposition and Nigel Farage's Reform would have 18 seats.

MRPs are now widely regarded as 'gold standard' in the polling industry, but they have been suggesting widely differing outcomes depending on assumptions such as likelihood to vote. They also take a longer period to conduct, meaning some of the research dates back weeks.

The enormous win for Sir Keir is being predicted despite signs that he is unpopular with Brits.

Mr Sunak (pictured in Derbyshire today) has been warning voters not to 'surrender' to Labour's plans on tax and immigration

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