Favorites stage 1 Tour de France 2024 | Mathieu's plans, cramps for Bettiol, and does Pogi want to shine already?

Grand Départ? Grande Partenza! The grand cycling event known as the Tour de France will kick off for the first time in Italy, Florence, on Saturday, June 29. The race starts right away with a serious stage featuring no fewer than seven categorized climbs. What can we expect? IDLProCycling.com tells you everything you need to know. Andiamo!

Course stage 1 Tour de France 2024

We start in Florence, the hometown of Italian cycling hero Gino Bartali. The riders will set off a little after noon for a 206-kilometer stage featuring a staggering 3,600 meters of elevation gain. This is the most elevation ever tackled on day one in the rich history of the French stage race.

Set in the hills of Tuscany and Emilia-Romagna, this stage promises fireworks from the start. After a brief warm-up following our departure from hot Florence, the peloton faces the Col de Valico Tre Faggi after just 37 kilometers: 12.5 kilometers long at an average gradient of 5.1%.

After the summit, there’s a long descent to the intermediate sprint in Santa Sofia, with the Forche climb (2.5 km at 6.2%) as an appetizer. The midsection includes the Carnaio (10.5 km at 4.6%), preparing riders for the last seventy kilometers, which include three tough climbs.

First up is the Barbotto, likely the toughest at 5.8 kilometers with a 7.6% gradient. Then, it’s all about climbing and descending, as the Montemaggio (4.2 km at 6.6%) and a climb to San Marino (7.1 km at 4.8%) are next. By entering San Marino, the Tour de France will visit its thirteenth country in history.

After the last climb, there are still 27 kilometers to go to Rimini, quite a lot since only a small part of that is downhill, and the final 15 kilometers are completely flat as we head to the coast. The last three thousand meters are rather technical, with a big looping turn, a roundabout and a 180-degree turn near the finish line.

Climbs

49.7 km: COL DE VALICO TRE FAGGI (12.5 km at 5.1%)

77.8 km: CÔTE DES FORCHE (2.5 km at 6.2%)

98.3 km: CÔTE DE CARNAIO (10.5 km at 4.6%)

135.6 km: CÔTE DE BARBOTTO (5.8 km at 7.6%)

157.3 km: CÔTE DE SAN LEO (4.6 km at 7.7%)

167.1 km: CÔTE DE MONTEMAGGIO (4.2 km at 6.6%)

179.7 km: CÔTE DE SAN MARINO (7.1 km at 4.8%)

Times

Start: 12:40 PM

Finish: around 5:49 PM

Weather stage 1 Tour de France 2024

Hot, hot, hot. In Florence, where the stage will kick off, temperatures will reach around 35 degrees Celsius on Saturday, meaning riders will need to drink plenty. A light but somewhat refreshing breeze along the coast in Rimini will be pleasant, as will the temperature at the finish: around 29 degrees Celsius.

Favorites stage 1 Tour de France 2024

Make no mistake, the opening stage of the Tour de France always results in a tough stage. The question is: what team will make it tough? Likely the general classification teams, with this rule of thumb: you can't win the Tour on day one, but you can certainly lose it. Stage and time gains are nice, but finishing without mishaps or losses is even better.

On the narrow, hilly roads in idyllic Italy, teams like UAE-Team Emirates ( Tadej Pogacar), Visma | Lease a Bike (Jonas Vingegaard), BORA-hansgrohe (Primoz Roglic) and Soudal Quick-Step (Remco Evenepoel) will do everything they can to keep their top riders at the front, making it a tight race.

The most likely scenario is that stage hunters will profit at the end of the day, unless Pogacar is already aiming for yellow and puts pressure on his rivals. He has the team, the historical awareness and — most importantly — the legs for it. This makes the Slovenian a top favorite, although he mentioned in a press release that he found stage two even more interesting.

Behind Tadej, there are many riders for whom yellow in Nice isn't important, but yellow in Rimini is. That is the case for Alberto Bettiol of EF Education-EasyPost, who will go all out in his Tuscany in the Italian tricolor to win this stage. Bettiol can peak well and has the guts to go all in at crucial moments, as shown in the Tour of Flanders, last year's World Championship, and the most recent Olympics in Tokyo. A downside is that he often suffers from cramps in hot weather — as evidenced by Tokyo 2021, the summer edition of Strade Bianche 2020, and it even happened to him as leader in the Tour Down Under 2023. From that perspective, the forecasted 36 degrees might be a dangerous obstacle.

Then there are the Belgians, who also have a realistic chance at the first yellow jersey. Wout van Aert is always on our list, but no one would blame the Visma | Lease a Bike rider if he isn't yet at his peak form. At Lotto-Dstny, Maxim Van Gils has made a big goal of this stage, while colleague Arnaud De Lie — like Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek) and Michael Matthews (Jayco AlUla) — will have to hang on and possibly come back in the last fifteen kilometers.

When going over the list of versatile and talented riders, we quickly come to world champion Mathieu van der Poel of Alpecin-Deceuninck, who returns to competition on Saturday after two months of absence. God knows, and perhaps Leonardo da Vinci or Michelangelo do too, but it's possible MVDP has silently worked on project Florence. Tom Pidcock was more outspoken: he is specifically targeting this stage, as he stated in the Tour of Switzerland.

Are there more contenders? Oh yes, because who predicted Adam Yates and Victor Lafay winning in last year's tough Basque opening weekend? A stunt like that might come from riders like Oier Lazkano, Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Paul Lapeira (Decathlon AG2R), Ben Healy, Neilson Powless (EF), Derek Gee (Israel-Premier Tech), Romain Grégoire (Groupama-FDJ) or Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) this season. Or will the big teams send Matteo Jorgenson, Aleksandr Vlasov or Juan Ayuso forward in a high-risk move?

Favorites stage 1 Tour de France 2024, according to IDLProCycling.com

Top favorites: Tadej Pogacar (UAE-Team Emirates) and Alberto Bettiol (EF Education-EasyPost)

Outsiders: Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck), Wout van Aert (Visma | Lease a Bike), Primoz Roglic (BORA-hansgrohe) and Maxim Van Gils (Lotto-Dstny)

Long shots: Tom Pidcock (INEOS Grenadiers), Alex Aranburu (Movistar), Magnus Cort (Uno-X), Michael Matthews (Jayco AlUla), Matteo Jorgenson (Visma | Lease a Bike), Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious) and Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)