Kristen Welker: 5 things to watch for in the first 2024 presidential debate

Analysis: As the moderator of the last debate in 2020, I will be watching for key exchanges on abortion and inflation, along with how the rules affect Trump's and Biden's performances.

The first 2024 debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump will provide plenty of moments of opportunity and potential peril for both candidates. As the moderator of Biden and Trump’s last debate, I will be watching for some particular exchanges that could sway the small group of undecided voters who will be decisive in the election.

I’ll also be looking for how the rules of Thursday’s debate affect how their performances appear to voters and whether that setup introduces new opportunities or perils for them. The decision to completely mute the candidates’ microphones when the other is talking, for instance, is a shift from the first 2020 debate, when insults and interruptions dominated.

But in the second debate, which I moderated, microphones were cut off after each candidate spoke for two minutes — yet they were left on during the open-discussion segments. While I had some trepidation about muting the mics in 2020, ultimately it proved to be a powerful tool to help keep the conversation on track.

And that second debate could be a preview of what we might see Thursday.

But above all, it’s important to remember that every debate is ultimately a chance for voters to learn more about the candidates and to help those who are undecided make up their minds. Whatever happens in Atlanta, one thing is certain: It will have a pivotal impact on how the race unfolds from now until November.

1. Which Trump will show up?

As I prepared to moderate the final 2020 debate, one question loomed large: Would Trump deliver the same bombastic performance he displayed during the first debate?

Trump’s allies urged him to show more restraint in the second debate, and he did.

Trump’s inner circle is advising him to repeat that performance Thursday, according to multiple Trump allies. One of them said that includes allowing Biden to speak at length, which Trump’s team believes could lead to moments that suggest to viewers that Biden is not capable of serving another term. Trump advisers also want him to attack Biden on such policies as the economy and border security.

As NBC News reported this week, Biden is preparing to take on whichever version of Trump shows up. And if it is a disciplined Trump, some Biden allies believe, he should try to bait him into losing his temper by raising such issues as his election loss in 2020, the Jan. 6 riot at the U.S. Capitol and his criminal convictions.

Biden has argued that a second Trump term would be more chaotic and destructive than he believes the first was and that Trump would be seeking retribution and revenge. Biden is expected to make the case Thursday night that Trump is out for himself, not Americans.

2. Is Biden able to reverse perceptions about his strength? 

The Biden campaign and other Democrats view Thursday’s debate as the first of several pivotal moments before early voting begins that they hope shift the dynamics of a race that remains incredibly close, with Trump narrowly leading in several key battleground states.

Biden’s top aides know he needs to deliver a powerful performance Thursday night, in no small part to prove to skeptical voters that he has what it takes to serve four more years in office. Just 28% of voters described Biden as being “tough” in a recent CBS News/YouGov poll, compared with 66% who said the same of Trump. And in a national Fox News poll, 43% of voters said Biden was better described as being a “strong leader,” compared with 53% who believe that about Trump.

So, what does Biden need to do?

“President Biden will have had a good night if he is able to make clear that he is doing this for all of the right reasons,” a top Democratic strategist told NBC News. “There will be some policy back-and-forth and zingers and a lot of disagreements, but at the end of the day the fundamental question will be who appears to have your back.”

3. How does Trump respond when his recent conviction becomes a topic of debate?

After Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts, Biden quickly, and for the first time, took direct aim at him over his legal battles — labeling him a “convicted felon.” And Biden aides say they expect him to make the case that Trump is unfit to hold office.

Trump has consistently and baselessly framed the criminal convictions as purely political and orchestrated by Biden to gain an advantage with voters. On Thursday night, he will have an opportunity to make that case in front of millions of Americans, with Biden standing next to him. So far, Trump’s convictions have done little to shift the overall dynamics of the race. While some polls taken since then have found Trump is losing ground, that movement has been within the polls’ margins of error.

A Trump adviser familiar with debate prep told NBC News: “Not only is Trump prepared but anticipating that Biden will hit him on the 34 felony counts.”

This adviser added that Trump will be ready to respond but would not give specific details about what he will say.

4. How does Biden handle the inflation questions? 

One of the biggest perceived policy weaknesses for Biden is the country’s stubborn inflation rate. While inflation dropped to 3.3% in May — its lowest rate since 2021 — most people still say prices are too high. Biden has tried to strike a balance when he talks about the issue, acknowledging the strain inflation is having on people while also pointing to signs it’s getting better.

Still, Biden gets low marks for his handling of the economy, with just 39% of voters approving of his job on the economy and 63% saying their families’ incomes are falling behind the cost of living, according to April’s national NBC News poll.

In recent weeks, Trump has rolled out several economic proposals to try to maintain that edge — from providing green cards to immigrants who get college degrees to proposing that tips should not be subject to income taxes.

Biden has argued that in a second term he would build on policies that have been aimed at lowering prices, including raising taxes on those making more than $400,000 a year and calling for more investments in social service programs.

While there will be pressure on both candidates to make the case for how they would be the better steward of the economy, Biden, as the incumbent, is likely to feel the most heat on this top concern for voters.

5. How does Trump handle the abortion questions?

Abortion access could also be one of the biggest X factors in the election. Polls have found that most people in the U.S., including all-important independent voters, support some access to abortion.

Trump — who takes credit for appointing the three Supreme Court justices who made it possible to overturn Roe v. Wade — has also tried to walk a fine line. He recently warned Republican lawmakers that abortion could cost the GOP politically and suggested they take a measured approach in discussing the issue.

Trump’s current position is that abortion policy should be left to the states. Biden is trying to convince voters Trump would not stick to that view if he is re-elected, arguing he would try to enact a federal ban. Biden’s position is that abortion rights protected in Roe should be codified in legislation passed by Congress, though Democrats do not agree on what that would entail.

Expect this to be one of the biggest flash points during the debate.

This story first appeared on NBCNews.com. More from NBC News: