Investors should be focused on U.S. debt -advisor
We find ourselves talking about the deficit a lot these days. And right now we're running a deficit of about 6 to 7% in the United States. That is extremely high. And, and, and, and simple terms, it just means that we're, we're spending a lot more than we're getting, right? And then the government is receiving in revenues. Historically, you see that during recessions, or at least not when the unemployment rate is as low as it is, right, Right. It's currently at 4%. Normally when you see us running deficits like this, we're either it's, it's during wartime or it's when the unemployment rate is, is above 7%. And so if we have a deficit like this when the economy is on relatively good footing, then what does that mean for when we all ultimately, which we we will eventually fall on tougher times? What does this mean going forward? Is this sustainable? And so that's something that we find ourselves talking about with clients quite often. And there there needs to be a way to finance these deficits. And that means that the way that that is done generally is the government issues more bonds. And so that's something that we. Continue to talk about and as it relates to our bond portfolios and our fixed income allocations, we, we tend to look more on the on the shorter end of the of the bond market curve of the yield curve. We don't that that we could down the road see another. Debt rating a downgrade for the US government because of this or because of Washington's inability to to figure things out. Ultimately, there really is no good substitute to U.S. Treasuries but and but we do think that eventually it will be tougher to. Hard decisions will have to be made when it comes to entitlements, when it comes to. To things like tax policy and, and tax policy is something that we're going to likely address sometime next year because both President Biden and former President Trump are both looking to at least partially extend the 2017 tax cuts. And so obviously there's a cost that comes to that. All these things that we look to, to all these tools that we use to stimulate the economy ultimately have a cost associated with them. And so I think that's something that we as investors need to remain focused on.