How Trump, Biden, RFK Jr. are polling ahead of the first debate

27/06/2024

(NewsNation) — As they prepare for the first presidential debate this week, former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden find themselves locked in a tight race with a little more than four months before the general election this November.

Polling by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ on Wednesday has Trump with a 1.2% lead over Biden.

Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr didn’t qualify for Thursday’s debate and instead plans to answer questions live from his website. The Hill/Decision Desk HQ shows him polling at a little more than 7%, well behind the major party presumptive nominees.

While well ahead of Kennedy, both Trump and Biden will enter the debate with low favorability ratings.

An Associated Press/National Opinion Research Center poll shows 56% of U.S. adults are “very” or “somewhat” dissatisfied with Biden as the Democratic option, and 55% feel the same about Trump being the GOP choice.

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In a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll of registered voters taken in May, about 58.1% of people said they somewhat or strongly disapproved of the job Biden’s currently doing.

Although they might not be thrilled about the candidates who’ll be debating, about 6 in 10 are “extremely” or “very” likely to watch the show live or in clips, read about it or listen to commentary about candidates’ performance.

Polling varies on who is in front

While organizations and outlets are predicting different outcomes of the election, most predict a fairly close election between Biden and Trump, with Kennedy trailing both quite a bit.

Reuters/Ipsos polls have shown Biden and Trump to be “neck and neck” in the presidential race, although some show the former president with an advantage in battleground states, while Morning Consult and The New York Times have the race tied up. When Kennedy was added to the mix, the Times’ survey gave a slight edge to Biden.

FiveThirtyEight had Trump leading Biden by a slight margin for months until last week. Now, Biden has a slim advantage over Trump: 40.8% over 40.6%, and Kennedy is polling at 9.4%.

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Decision Desk HQ, which works with NewsNation and partner site The Hill, says Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning the presidency as of Tuesday. The election website’s model blends the latest poll and fundraising data with factors such as incumbency and each district’s partisan lean to make its prediction.

The latest survey from Reuters and Ipsos suggests that voters are divided on which candidate is the best choice to tackle certain topics.

Registered voters said Trump had a better handle than Biden on the economy (43% to 37%) and immigration (44% to 31%).

They liked Biden’s approach to political extremism and preserving democracy (39% to 33%) as well as health care policy (40% to 29%).

Approval and favorability ratings

According to FiveThirtyEight, 55.3% of surveyed voters disapprove of how Biden’s doing, and 38.4% approve. Decision Desk HQ has similar results: 55.9% have an unfavorable opinion of the president, and 41.4% have a favorable opinion of him.

Trump’s favorability rating on FiveThirtyEight is 41.5%, and 53.8% have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican. Decision Desk HQ put him at a 56.1% unfavorability rating and 42.3% favorable.

On FiveThirtyEight, Kennedy is favored by 33.7% of people, while 43.8% of those polled have an unfavorable opinion of him. Decision Desk HQ shows him at a 35.1% favorability rating, with 52.6% saying he is unfavorable.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Polling varies on who is in front

Approval and favorability ratings

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