Increasing probability of La Nina developing this summer
Well, an update from NOAA and the National Weather Service in the US where they are expecting that as we progress through summer, La Nina is favored to develop. Now, La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, is characterized by warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific across the western side of the basin. Meanwhile, cooler than normal waters develop across the eastern side of the basin. Now, we have come out of El Nino and according to NOAA and the National Weather Service, we're in a collective neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation pattern. But we are expecting that conditions will tip into a La Nina pattern. As a matter of fact, they are expecting that as we head into July and September, July through September, a 65% probability of La Nina developing and heading into winter, even an 85% probability of La Nina developing. Now certainly what does this mean for us? Well, it's one of the factors that's considered for the Atlantic hurricane season where they are forecasting 17 to 25 named storms, well above the average for a given season of around 14. And we've already had named storms here at home. As we head into winter, La Nina can have pronounced impacts on our weather. Take a look at the temperature pattern that's typical during a La Nina year in terms of precipitation. It can be one of those times when we get some heavier snowfall events across Western Canada. Now, certainly it is too soon to know how the season will unfold, but certainly it will be one that we will watch closely.