Tracking data claims Packers’ Dontayvion Wicks has underrated speed
Tracking data claims Packers’ Dontayvion Wicks has underrated speed
Joseph Ferraiola, who has previously worked with an MLB club, Next Gen Stats and a management firm that represented both players and coaches, recently published some interesting data on what NFL receivers’ “real” 40-yard dash times are based on player tracking data. I’m sure you’ve heard that a player’s 40-yard time doesn’t match their “on-field” speed at some point while following football. Farraiola’s new model attempts to actually quantify that “on-field” speed for comparison.
Obviously, it’s not normal for receivers to start out plays in a three-point stance without any sort of football gear, as they do when they’re running their 40-yard dashes at the combine. Ferraiola’s solve for this is to measure a player’s “95th percentile max speed and average speed” on go routes, seam routes and post routes, deep routes that are generally ran at full speed.
According to the tracking data in these situations, Green Bay Packers receiver Dontayvion Wicks, who ran a 4.62-second 40-yard dash at the combine, runs closer to a 4.47-second 40 “on-field.” That extra 0.15 seconds may not seem like a lot of time, but it’s actually tied for the second-largest gap between a player’s actual 40-yard dash and projected 40-yard dash using the model among the receivers in the data set. Like Wicks, the Los Angeles Rams’ Cooper Kupp also ran a 4.62 but is projected to run an “on-field” 4.47 based on the model.
The only receiver who outperforms his 40-yard dash at a higher clip than Wicks is San Francisco 49ers receiver Jauan Jennings, who actually shaved 0.20 seconds off his 4.72-second 40-yard time based on the tracking data.
Not all players outperform their 40-yard dash, though, as some receivers — generally with some sort of a track background — are much better at getting “out of the blocks” from a three-point stance during the pre-draft process. Among these receivers are Parris Campbell, Mecole Hardman, D.K. Metcalf, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Chark, Rondale Moore and former Packers trade target Chase Claypool. For example, Claypool runs like a receiver who was 0.12 seconds slower than his 40-yard dash per the tracking data.
The eye test seems to have panned out for the Packers with Wicks. As a rookie, Wicks finished with 39 receptions for 581 yards and four touchdowns. That number was good for the second-best rookie season in the 2023 rookie receiver class for pass-catchers taken outside of the top 80 selections. Only the Rams’ Puka Nacua, who earned Second-Team All-Pro honors as a rookie, bested Wicks’ stats. On top of that, most of Wicks’ production came in the second half of the season, as he recorded 29 receptions for 441 yards and three touchdowns from Week 8 on, despite missing action in Week 12 and Week 17 due to injury.