Why Rajasthan looks headed for a one-sided showdown

As Prime Minister Narendra Modi barnstorms across Rajasthan ahead of the Lok Sabha election, there is a striking change in his demeanour. Gone is the stern, stoic figure that spearheaded the Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign during the assembly election a mere six months ago. Back then, Modi maintained an impeccably sombre mien, eschewing even the most perfunctory of greetings to those sharing the dais. It was a studied aloofness to avoid any hint of favouritism amidst the jostling ambitions of the state’s political heavyweights. But now, a distinctly more relaxed Modi exhibits an animated canvas of smiles and warmth as he engages freely with the local leaders, even welcoming their company during road shows and rallies.

Led by Modi, the BJP had defeated the ruling Congress in the assembly election held last November. The comfortable majority it cornered has further cemented the party’s position in the des­ert state, where it had a clean sweep in the past two Lok Sabha elections—alone in 2014 and with then ally Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) in 2019. And yet again, the party has rallied its forces around a singular figure: Narendra Modi. As the PM seeks a third term, his persona looms large, with votes being actively solicited under the banner of his leadership and for an emphatic mandate. While Union home minister Amit Shah has masterminded the overarching strategy and candidate selection, it is Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma who is spearheading the on-ground offensive. In just about a month, he has led 60-odd rallies and road shows, his itinerary punctuated by visits to sacred shrines. Alongside the CM, deputy chief minister Diya Kumari is an indefatigable presence, attending two to three election events daily.

The party’s core messaging centres around the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu & Kashmir, national security imperatives, allegations of corruption against the previous Ashok Gehlot-led Congress regime, and Modi’s development agenda. A gender outreach is part of this. “If the ghar ki lakshmi (women) decides that the vote should go to Modiji, as he gave a 33 per cent reservation to women in legislatures, then none in the household can do otherwise,” says Diya Kumari. Meanwhile, Bhajan Lal, with not much to boast about yet beyond a crackdown on exam paper leaks and illegal mining, has deftly woven his campaign around an everyman image. Public hearings are a staple, as are impromptu roadside chai per charchas, where he lends an empathetic ear to the travails of bureaucratic harassment endured by the average citizen. Between a talismanic two-time PM going for a historic third term and a first-time MLA as CM, the BJP has covered both ends of the spectrum.

In 2019, the BJP juggernaut had swept through the state with an average victory margin of 340,000 votes per seat. Amid speculations of a dip in the BJP vote share this time, political observers expect the Congress to mount a challenge across at least half-a-dozen constituencies. The Grand Old Party, on its part, harbours aspirations of expanding the battleground to some 9-12 seats, and cornering at least a fistful. Acutely aware of the factors that could undermine its quest for a hat trick of clean sweeps, the BJP has marshalled its resources to fortify these potential weak links.

For one, the BJP has defied preconceived notions in choosing candidates. Consider Mahima Singh, who is married into Mewar’s erstwhile royal family. A political novice, she will contest from Rajsamand, following in the footsteps of her husband, Vishvaraj, who won his maiden electoral battle from Nathdwara in the 2023 assembly polls. Amid murmurs of discontent within Rajput ranks, the BJP’s overture towards Maharana Pratap’s direct descendants appears to be a calculated effort to shore up support among this crucial demographic. Signs of a potentially harmful disaffection in the community towards the BJP have been visible from Gujarat to Uttar Pradesh, but Rajasthan had been first off the blocks there when the new CM’s anti-mining drive hit the hotelier-cum-sand mining major Meghraj Singh Shekhawat, a popular community figure, back in mid-February (A Raging Sandstorm, March 11).

That has forced the party’s new pragmatism towards Rajputs. Beyond that, the Jats too need to be kept in good humour. In Ajmer, the BJP has retained sitting MP and Jat leader Bhagirath Chaudhary, despite his recent assembly poll defeat. In Jhunjhunu, Shubhkaran Chaudhary, another casualty of the 2023 polls, has been granted a second chance. In Nagaur, the party has placed its faith in Jyoti Mirdha, granddaughter of Jat icon Nathu Ram and former Congress MP whose last electoral win came in 2009. However, the BJP’s faith in her underscores its lack of alternatives in certain seats as much as its pragmatism. This, even as the party has been bold enough to continue circumscribing the turf of former CM Vasundhara Raje (who’s mostly reduced to campaigning for son Dushyant Singh in Jhalawar-Baran) and deny tickets to 11 of its sitting MPs.

While the BJP plays with calculated risk, the Congress seems to be moving from blunder to blunder. In Jaipur, its original candidate Sunil Sharma was forced into a red-faced withdrawal after a huge protest over his association with the right-wing digital platform Jaipur Dialogues. The party’s next choice, former minister Pratap Singh Khachariawas, openly admitted his reluctance to contest, still reeling from his assembly election defeat. In Jhunjhunu, too, sitting MLA Brijendra Singh Ola confessed to his lack of enthusiasm for the upcoming electoral battle. In Rajsamand, Sudarshan Singh Rawat returned his ticket, claiming he had never consen­ted to the nomination. Forced into a frantic reshuffle, the Congress shifted Damodar Gurjar from Bhilwara to Rajsamand, and drafted former speaker C.P. Joshi to contest from Bhilwara despite his assembly poll debacle.

But the real comedy of errors unfolded in the tribal belt—comic only for onlookers, of course, and fairly tragic for the party—where a last-minute clinching of an alliance with the Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) left two Congress candidates high and dry in the Banswara Lok Sabha seat and the Bagidora assembly segment within it, which is slated for a simultaneous bypoll. Now everyone is fighting everyone on the same side (see Tangle Triangle, in Pollhouse, page 14, for the full sitcom). Inter alia, this scotches any potential benefits that may have accrued from a pooling of all the anti-BJP Adivasi votes. Even in its assembly election loss, the Congress had shown signs of regaining its old Adivasi loyalties and the emergence of a new tribal party was going contrary to that project.

HAND IN HAND: Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge releasing the party manifesto along with Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi, Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Jaipur, Apr. 6 (ANI)

Yet, the Congress is fighting hard. Defections aside, there are no signs of the old factionalism, with both Gehlot and Sachin Pilot loyalists being given tickets. The party hopes state chief Govind Singh Dotasra can net Jat votes while Pilot’s crossover popularity helps in the Gujjar belt and beyond. Gehlot’s focus, meanwhile, is on reminding the electorate of his pioneering welfare schemes while accusing the new BJP regime of winding them down. Congress leaders have also been charging the Modi regime with fostering a culture of corruption through the alleged misuse of central agencies as a tool of political coercion and the now-scrapped electoral bond scheme as a tool to strongarm corporate entities into funding the BJP.

For critics of the Congress, Dotasra has a scathing rebuke: “The BJP’s manifesto is little more than hollow sloganeering, devoid of any accounting of its achievements over the past decade or a concrete plan on inflation and unemployment.” It does little to dent the saffron party’s confidence, though, which is convinced that the Modi magic will once again help it sail through in Rajasthan.

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