How election results in Pakistan’s Punjab serve impending threat to Sharif family

How election results in Pakistan’s Punjab serve impending threat to Sharif family

Almost all foreign observers of the February 8 Pakistani polls are focusing their attention almost exclusively on the results of the National Assembly election. At the same time, projections of what lies ahead in the country’s political life require that close attention be given to the election results for the Punjab Assembly.

It is not necessary that a party that rules Pakistan federally also has Punjab, which is Pakistan’s most important province, under its control. Indeed, in the past, Punjab has been in control of the party that sits on the opposition benches in the National Assembly. However, on such occasions, Punjab has been a thorn in the side of the Pakistani government.

In the present political circumstances in Pakistan, it is certain that the coalition Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML (N)) and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) are most likely to form at the federal level. Pakistan cannot remain stable unless the PML (N) and the army chief succeed in ensuring that the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) is kept out of power in Lahore.

Why is it so important that Imran Khan be kept out of power in Punjab? The answer lies in the province’s significance in Pakistan’s national life, especially its politics. Punjab is Pakistan’s most populous province. It has more seats in the National Assembly than the combined seats of the three others—Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, and Baluchistan—as well as the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT).

The total number of National Assembly general seats for which direct elections are held is 266. Out of these, Punjab has 141. Of the 60 women seats, which are decided on a proportional basis and allotted to parties that secure more than 5 per cent of the vote share in the national elections, Punjab has been allotted 32 seats. Indeed, it is the constant complaint of the other provinces that Punjab overshadows them all.

The Pakistani army is essentially a Punjabi army. Its main recruitment centres still lie in the districts of northern Punjab, though in recent years the army has been trying to recruit more soldiers from other provinces.

It is unlikely, though, that the importance of Punjab for the army will be even marginally reduced for a long time to come, if ever.

As the Pakistani generals are both professional soldiers and also play a ‘political’ role from behind the scenes, they keep a close watch on the politics of the province as well as its popular sentiments.

That is why the May 9 attacks by Imran Khan supporters on Pakistani army installations in Punjab so embittered army chief Asim Munir against the PTI leader. The fact that the protestors had a free run in the Corp Commander residence, Lahore—Jinnah House—was especially intolerable to Munir and the generals who are loyal to him.

The Punjab Provincial Assembly consists of 371 members. Of these, 297 are to be directly elected. In addition, the Assembly has 66 women seats and 8 seats for non-Muslims. These are allotted to political parties under the proportional representation system. On February 8, elections for the Punjab Assembly were held for 296 general seats. The PML (N) won 137 seats, while the PTI candidates contesting as independents secured 115 seats. As many as 22 seats were won by non-PTI-affiliated candidates. It is certain that a number of these 22 will prevail upon or willingly join the PML (N).

The question is whether at least 10 of them will join the party so that it reaches a majority. That means it will be secure. In any event, the PML (N) should have no difficulty making a government in Punjab.

This does not mean that the Sharifs and Munir would not be concerned with the fact that Imran Khan retains so much popularity among the urban population and sections of rural youth and city women that his ‘independent’ candidates were able to secure 115 seats.

Normally, voting in Punjab takes place on the basis of biradaris. Just as caste plays a crucial role in Indian elections in Pakistan’s Punjab province, biradaris are an important part of the political process. Some important biradaris are the Arians, Jats, and Rajputs.

The Sharifs have, over the decades, built a strong network among the biradaris. Clearly, Imran Khan has succeeded in making a huge dent in this network. His appeal has transcended the biradaris, for he has invoked the gairat or pride of the people against foreign interference. That has made an impact.

It is also significant that the Pakistani Punjabis have continued to strongly support Imran Khan despite the cases instituted against him. These cases have involved charges that he breached national security, was involved in corruption, and finally that his marriage to Bushra Bibi, his third and current wife, was illegal.

This case was obviously meant to highlight that he is a man of loose morals. However, these charges have also had no influence on changing the minds of his Punjabi supporters.

The Sharifs will have to do some serious introspection. Nawaz Sharif is the head of the Sharif ‘joint’ family. He is also the quaid or leader of the PML (N). However, at 74, he is not the same person he was even six years ago. He has become embittered and seems to have lost his vigour. He was a charismatic leader, but that charisma is now lost.

Five years of political exile in London from 2018 to 2023 have taken a great toll on Nawaz Sharif. His younger brother, Shehbaz Sharif, who served as Prime Minister of the People’s Democratic Movement (PDM) government, which came to power after Imran Khan was ousted from that seat in April 2022, has forever remained loyal to his elder brother. Shehbaz Sharif also served as the Chief Minister of Punjab when Nawaz Sharif was Prime Minister. He has the well-earned reputation of being a good administrator.

The problem for the Sharif family is the leadership of the PML (N) in the next generation. Both Nawaz Sharif’s daughter, Maryam Nawaz, and Shehbaz Sharif’s son, Hamza Sharif, have demonstrated leadership qualities.

Both have suffered persecution at the hands of the army and their political rivals, including imprisonment, stoically.

It is no secret that Nawaz Sharif considers Maryam his political heir. Shehbaz has made no public comments about Hamza, who has served as Punjab Chief Minister although for a very brief period and has a good connection with the Sharif’s Punjab network.

It is necessary for the Sharif’s to achieve a modus vivendi about the leadership of the party after Nawaz and Shehbaz take on Imran Khan. There is an absence of clarity on this score, and that cannot but erode the party base. This election result, when the army was entirely behind the Sharifs in Punjab and yet Imran Khan’s independents could secure 115 seats, is a wake-up call for the Sharif family. If they do not settle their affairs, they will not be able to reduce Khan’s support in Punjab.

The writer is a former Indian diplomat who served as India’s Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar, and as secretary, the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.

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