North Korea's new hostility towards South: Is Kim Jong Un planning for war?

North Korea’s new hostility towards South: Is Kim Jong Un planning for war?

As the conflict in Ukraine approaches its third anniversary and the situation in Gaza exacerbates tensions in the Middle East, attention is turning to North Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s recent actions are sparking debate over his military ambitions.

Kim has notably deviated from North Korea’s longstanding approach towards South Korea, declaring an end to any pursuit of reconciliation or reunification and labeling the South as a “permanent enemy.”

Kim’s assertion at a recent political event, as reported by KCNA, was stark: “North Korea does not desire war but will not shy away from it,” aiming to annex South Korea should conflict arise.

This significant pivot is accompanied by a series of aggressive moves, including missile tests and military escalations, which have prompted international alarm and speculation about Kim’s ultimate intentions.

The two Koreas are now “at the highest probability of being dragged into armed conflict”, Choi Gi-il, professor of military studies at Sangji University, told AFP.

“Let’s say civilian and military casualties incur from a future Northern provocation. We target the point of origin with shells. But will we also strike them with air power?” he said.

As per a CNN report, experts Robert Carlin and Siegfried Heckler have posited in 38 North that Kim may have strategically decided to engage in war, a view not universally accepted. Many believe that Kim, aware of the existential risk to his regime a conflict with South Korea and the US would pose, is instead signaling a readiness to escalate tensions without crossing into outright warfare.

The potential for misunderstanding and accidental conflict is high, given the tense atmosphere, though Kim is perceived to see limited value in actual combat, according to Eul-Chul Lim of Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

Amid increased military coordination between South Korea and the US, Kim’s policy shifts seem driven by a need to consolidate power and deter perceived threats, with an eye on the shifting global dynamics that bring Pyongyang closer to allies like Russia, the CNN report said.

The reclassification of South Korea as an adversary enables Kim to justify expanding his nuclear arsenal, seen as crucial for his regime’s survival despite international sanctions.

Kim has emphasized his nuclear capabilities as a deterrent, even as he strengthens ties with the US and South Korea’s military advancements, which he views as direct threats to his leadership.

The North Korean leader’s reluctance to engage in dialogue with the US, following unsuccessful negotiations, underscores a strategic retreat from reunification rhetoric in favor of strengthening defense and economic development.

However, despite North Korea’s aggressive posture and refusal to engage in dialogue with Washington, the United States does not perceive an “imminent” threat of war, according to Jung Pak, a senior state department official focused on North Korea. During a briefing on Thursday, Pak emphasized that while the US remains vigilant and committed to strengthening deterrence alongside allies Japan and South Korea, there has been no significant change in North Korea’s stance.

Pak remarked, “Fundamentally, I don’t think Kim’s posture has changed. I don’t see an imminent or direct attack at this point.” “I’ll also say that it’s clear that Kim has decided that now’s not the time that they want to be having dialogue and diplomacy, especially not with the United States, but clearly they’re doing that with Russia,” Pak added.

While US officials see no immediate signs of a forthcoming attack by North Korea, the situation remains precarious, with Kim’s regime likely seeking peace rather than conflict, maintaining a primary focus on regime survival.

Kim’s confidence in his military strategy and alliances, especially with Russia and China, reflects his response to a perceived decline in US influence and the emergence of a multipolar world more conducive to North Korea’s interests.

Despite these developments, North Korea’s stance poses a continued challenge to regional stability, requiring careful navigation to prevent escalation and maintain peace on the Korean Peninsula.

(With inputs from agencies)

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