What are Trump’s chances to win the GOP nomination?

What are Trump’s chances to win the GOP nomination?

The 2024 election season in the US began with the Republican Party’s Iowa caucuses last week. The results confirmed the sway former President Donald Trump wields over the Republican Party, making him a clear favorite to secure the Republican presidential nomination for the 2024 race. With resounding chants of ‘yes’ from the crowd in Iowa, the former president celebrated his victory as “a big win” – a triumph with significant margins over his GOP rivals, Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida, and Nikki Haley, former Governor of South Carolina. Facing anti-incumbency, President Joe Biden is confronted with a mounting challenge from his predecessor, Donald Trump, who refers to him as the ‘worst president in American history’.

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What happened in Iowa?

Securing a historic 51% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump garnered more than Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley combined, who pulled in 21% and 19%, respectively. To the surprise of many, Trump’s 30 point margin of victory was the highest ever in an Iowa caucuses, he outperformed his 2016 performance by winning in all 98 of 99 counties, except for one, where Nikki Haley won by a meager one vote and also secured more than 80% of 1,657 precincts in the state.

In the northwest of Iowa, referred to as the evangelical base, Donald Trump emerged victorious – a stark contrast to 2016 when he struggled to make it to the top three in some cases. For instance, in Sioux County, where his competitor Ron DeSantis campaigned heavily, Trump won with 45% of the votes, thumping DeSantis with a 14% lead .

Although Nikki Haley was expected to perform well in the 13 suburbs, the 45th president took 12 of them. While in 2016, he lost 10 of the 13 counties where Marco Rubio secured most of them. Across the board, polling in Iowa suggests that evangelicals, educated voters, and suburban voters are all rallying behind Trump, expanding his support base since the 2016 election.

More than half of Republicans also support the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement, and among these are Republicans who believe that the 2020 election was “stolen.” As Trump put it in his victory speech in Iowa, “82% said the election was not honest.”

It seems probable that this particular group would downplay or ignore the charges Trump is currently dealing with at both the federal and state levels, particularly concerning his alleged involvement in the January 6 Capitol riots and election interference in Georgia.

What is in stake at New Hampshire?

Ahead of Tuesday’s election in the swing state of New Hampshire, Ron DeSantis has dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump, leaving Nikki Haley as the only GOP contender challenging Trump in New Hampshire.

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Though Haley has engaged in an ugly heated exchange of racist and personal barbs with Trump, New Hampshire presents Haley with a good opportunity to slow down Trump’s electoral momentum after the former president’s landslide victory in Iowa. The state has a larger white and rural population than Iowa, and it has significant independent voters who could drive the outcome. In New Hampshire, nearly four in ten are independent voters. These voters are important for Haley’s chances of winning, but they have different political views. Some lean towards the Democrats and dislike Trump, while others are strong conservatives.

According to a latest poll by the Washington Post, Haley has the support of 45% of independent voters, while Trump has 44%. However, Trump significantly outperforms Haley among registered Republicans, securing 59% of their support to Haley’s 29%, giving him a crucial lead overall.

A poll by CNN on Sunday also projects Trump to have widened his lead over Haley in New Hampshire.

Has the Iowa win placed Trump for the GOP nomination ?

Although winning in Iowa may not necessarily guarantee a GOP nomination, given that the state has predicted the eventual winner only six out of 13 times, with George W Bush in 2000 being the last successful GOP candidate. Infact, Trump himself lost in Iowa back in 2016 to Ted Cruz and still managed to come out victorious. However, the sheer momentum of the victory should not be overlooked and what Iowa showed was how “motivated potential Trump voters are,” said Professor Dattesh Parulekar from SIAS, Goa University.

Out of the total 1,215 delegates required to win the Republican nomination, Donald Trump, who seems to be in the driver’s seat for now, has secured 20 delegates from winning Iowa and is expected to win the rest and secure the republican nomination. This expectation holds true not only from the Republican party that Trump has a stronghold on, but also from President Biden and his fellow Democrats.

As soon as the news of Trump’s Iowa win broke, President Biden on X wrote “Looks like Donald Trump just won Iowa. He’s the clear front runner on the other side at this point. But here’s the thing: this election was always going to be you and me vs. extreme MAGA Republicans. It was true yesterday and it’ll be true tomorrow.”

Speaking to TOI about the chances of Trump getting nominated amidst the legal battles, Professor Dattesh Parulekar said “barring any adverse ruling by the courts, he is pretty much expected to secure the nomination by Super Tuesday in mid March or at best by early April.”

Professor Dattesh also noted it is important for Nikki Haley to stay in the hunt and secure second place, as she would automatically clinch the nomination in the event of Trump’s legal disqualification.

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