As Russia's war drags on, Zelenskyy's term is up in Ukraine

Volodymyr Zelenskyy enjoys considerable domestic backing

Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s five-year term as Ukraine’s president formally ends on May 20. An election would have been held in late March, but the parliament postponed the vote as the country is still at war and under martial law. A major questions for Ukrainians is who might succeed Zelenskyy once he leaves office.

In early 2024, few politicians and commentators openly pondered who could or should follow Zelenskyy. At the end of February, when Zelenskyy looked back on the past two years of fighting off Russia, the president dismissed any talk questioning his legitimacy as a “hostile narrative.” Speaking to journalists, Zelenskyy said neither the country’s allies nor anyone in Ukraine were asking such questions. He said any such speculation was “part of the Russian Federation’s program.”

Ukrainian legal experts DW consulted said they expected that Zelenskyy would remain in power until a new president is elected. “The Ukrainian constitution states this clearly,” Andriy Mahera, of the Centre of Policy and Legal Reform, told DW. “The president does not automatically lose his powers five years after inauguration: These powers are only removed when the newly elected president takes office, i.e., after elections.”

Presidential and parliamentary elections are currently out of the question. Ukraine’s constitution places a temporary restriction on the former, whereas martial law bans both — in part , officials say, to protect voters from harm.

Should Zelenskyy resign?

Martial law also curtails certain civil liberties. “Some constitutional rights and freedoms are restricted, for example, the right to freedom of expression, peaceful assembly and freedom of movement,” Mahera said. The Central Election Commission and the Institute of Lawmaking and Scientific-Legal Expertises of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine issued similar assessments in early 2024.

Veteran Ukrainian politicians have also waded into the debate. Hryhoriy Omelchenko, a former parliamentarian and member of the constitutional drafting commission of the mid-1990s, said it was no coincidence that the extension of presidential terms remains unregulated, adding that this serves as safeguard. Even so, Omelchenko penned a letter to Zelenskyy— published in Ukrajina Moloda newspaper in March — urging the president “not to usurp state power” and to voluntarily resign in May.

Zelenskyy’s legitimacy derives not just from the law, but also from broad popular support. A survey conducted by Ukraine’s Razumkov Center in January found that 69% of respondents trust Zelenskyy. Less than a quarter say they do not trust the president.

A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) in early February found that 69% of respondents thought Zelenskyy should remain in power until martial law ends. Only 15% of those surveyed supported holding elections in the current circumstances, and 10% wanted Zelenskyy to hand over power to parliamentary chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk.

KIIS executive director Anton Hrushetskyi told DW that either scenario risked undermining the government’s legitimacy and destabilizing Ukraine. “Millions of people are abroad, millions live under occupation, hundreds of thousands are serving in the army — if citizens cannot take part in elections, as either voters or candidates, this will undermine the legitimacy of the election results,” Hrushetskyi said.

The Constitutional Court

Legal experts DW spoke with said the Constitutional Court should settle the debate over the president’s powers and the timing of an election. “Only the Constitutional Court can interpret the constitution to ascertain whether other laws are in line with it,” Mahera said.

The president, government, Supreme Court, a group of 45 parliamentarians or parliament’s human rights commissioner would need to call on the Constitutional Court to review the matter. Yet so far, none of them has.

Dzerkalo Tyshnya reported in late February that Zelenskyy’s office was working on a petition to the Constitutional Court but had submitted it. According to the daily, the plan was for 45 members of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party to file the petition instead.

According to rhe parliamentary group, Zelenskyy has full legitimacy. The opposition is largely in agreement.

Various parties in Ukraine have said they have no intention of appealing to the Constitutional Court, highlighting an interparty agreement not to hold elections until martial law ends.

This article was translated from German.

Author: Igor Burdyga