South Karnataka: JDS fights for survival against rising Congress

South Karnataka: JDS fights for survival against rising Congress

Karnataka was the only southern state that played a key role in boosting BJP’s overall national tally to 303 by giving it 25 of 28 seats with a record vote share of 51.2% in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Of particular significance beyond this astonishing feat was BJP’s ability to navigate through the alliance between Congress and former PM H D Deve Gowda-led JD(S), which had then formed a coalition govt helmed by H D Kumaraswamy.

Despite the combined efforts of these two parties, which have a strong voter base in the southern part of the state, BJP managed to make substantial gains, winning 11/14 seats.

Fast-forward to 2024. Political dynamics have witnessed a significant shift with BJP forging an alliance with JD(s) to take on a resurgent Congress, which has been emboldened by its remarkable victory in the 2023 assembly polls.

PM Modi and Gowda have held a couple of joint rallies to boost the alliance prospects in southern Karnataka, which will go to the polls on Friday.

For JD(S), survival is now the primary concern following its disappointing performance in the assembly elections, particularly in the Old Mysore region, historically a stronghold for the party. While Lingayats wield influence in northern Karnataka, Vokkaligas hold sway in Old Mysore regions.

Recognising the critical nature of the battle, Kumaraswamy, who is in-charge party president, entered the fray from Mandya, as part of a broader strategy to counter Congress. The 2019 polls saw son Nikhil suffer a humiliating defeat against Sumalatha Ambareesh, which remains a bitter pill for the Gowda family, given Mandya’s status as their political stronghold and the epicentre of Vokkaliga politics. Despite Sumalatha joining BJP after being denied a ticket for reelection, she has not actively campaigned for HDK yet. However, his supporters rallied behind voters, emphasising his victory is crucial to preserving JD(S) and safeguarding the interests of Vokkaligas.

CM Siddaramaiah faces a critical challenge on his home turf — Mysuru — where BJP fielded Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar, the titular head of the Mysuru royal family, against Congress’s M Lakshmana, a low-profile party loyalist and a Vokkaliga. Congress is relying on Siddaramaiah’s political acumen and popularity to counter BJP’s prospects in this constituency, which has been favouring the latter since 2014. A defeat for Congress would directly impact Siddaramaiah’s reputation and potentially jeopardise his tenure as CM. Speculation is already rife about D K Shivakumar potentially succeeding him either after the Lok Sabha polls or within the next one and a half years. His eagerness for victory was evident as he campaigned, earnestly appealing to voters to support Congress candidates if they desired continuity of the current govt and the preservation of poll guarantees for the next five years.

Beyond high-profile seats, numerous pitched battles are underway, often revolving around dynastic succession. Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna, who is seeking re-election from Hassan, faces stiff opposition from Shreyas Patel, the son of former Hassan MP Puttaswamy Gowda, who had previously defeated the ex-PM. Additionally, tensions between JD(S) and BJP supporters could potentially work in Patel’s favour, say observers.

However, surpassing its previous election record may pose a challenge for BJP or NDA, given the Congress govt’s current popularity, especially among rural voters and women, attributed to the five guarantees. However, BJP remains optimistic about securing 15 or more seats, citing past instances where Karnataka voters have favoured BJP in LS elections, consistently delivering over 15 seats since 2004.

BJP’s campaign has revolved around Modi and his decade of achievements, contrasting them with the perceived failures of Congress.

The JD(S)-BJP partnership, hailed as a “natural alliance”, is relying on a seamless transfer of votes between the parties in south Karnataka to reach their goal of 20 seats.

“Last time, when Congress and JD(S) formed an alliance, we failed to work as a cohesive unit. This time, however, things have played out much more effectively, and there’s no doubt that we will replicate BJP’s success in 2024,” said BJP state president B Y Vijayendra.

For Congress president D K Shivakumar, southern Karnataka holds immense significance in safeguarding the Vokkaliga support base. In the assembly polls, the community had rallied behind him, disregarding JD(S) in hopes of his ascension to the CM’s office. The outcome of the Lok Sabha polls will determine whether he has managed to maintain this support.

The future of the Congress govt also hangs in the balance, particularly amid speculation that a poor performance could lead to its collapse, as seen after the 2019 elections. “We are confident that we will win 20 seats this time and ensure the defeat of JD(S) in all seats in south Karnataka,” asserts DKS. “We expect to secure majority of these seats in the Vokkaliga belt, as the people have lost trust in JD(S). After the Lok Sabha polls, there will be no JD(s) left in the state.”

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