'Important victory': Russia takes control of Avdiivka. Is Putin winning in Ukraine?

Russia has announced the full control of a pivotal city in eastern Ukraine, marking a notable development in the protracted conflict as the second anniversary of its comprehensive invasion looms. This victory, confirmed by both the Russian defense ministry and Ukrainian military officials, underscores the intense struggle that has characterized the region for months. The capture could serve as a morale booster for Russian forces and the nation as it prepares for upcoming presidential elections.

The battle for Avdiivka

The fall of Avdiivka came after Ukrainian forces, outnumbered and outgunned, valiantly defended against a relentless Russian assault for four months. President Vladimir Putin personally lauded the troops for their “important victory,” signaling a potential shift in the war’s momentum.

The Kremlin’s advancement in Avdiivka represents Moscow’s most substantial progress since seizing Bakhmut, underscoring a pivotal moment ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The capture of Avdiivka is not just a tactical win but also serves as a morale booster for Russia, coinciding with President Putin’s upcoming reelection bid. This victory is seen as a step towards consolidating Moscow’s control over the Donetsk region, reinforcing Russian presence in an area contested since 2014. Despite the lack of transparency regarding Russian casualties, the heavy toll on personnel and equipment has been acknowledged by both Ukrainian officials and Western analysts.

107799308

Challenges and responses on the Ukrainian side

The withdrawal from Avdiivka marks a critical moment for Ukraine’s new army chief, Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, emphasizing the strategic decisions faced by Ukrainian commanders in the conflict’s evolving landscape. Despite the setbacks, Ukrainian forces vow to continue their defense, highlighting the significant toll on Russian forces during the prolonged engagement.

In the wake of these developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been vocal at the Munich Security Conference, advocating for enhanced military aid from Western allies. The withdrawal from Avdiivka, according to Zelenskyy, was partly due to the dire need for more weapons against Russia’s superior arsenal. This plea for support underscores the critical juncture at which the Ukrainian military finds itself, as it seeks to regroup and fortify its positions against the Russian advance.

Zelenskyy, addressing the Munich Security Conference, highlighted the dire need for increased military support from allies, pointing to the risks posed by the “artificial deficit” of arms. The Ukrainian military’s decision to withdraw from Avdiivka was aimed at preventing encirclement and preserving soldiers’ lives, amidst challenges including low ammunition supplies and personnel shortages. U.S. President Joe Biden reaffirmed his support for Ukraine, despite acknowledging the challenges in securing additional funding promptly.

The bigger picture

Despite failing to capture key Ukrainian cities during the initial offensive, Putin seems increasingly confident, managing to withstand Ukraine’s summer 2023 counter-offensive. His recent declarations and the capture of Avdiivka signal a belief in Russia’s strategic advantage, underlining a critical phase in the conflict as both sides prepare for what may come next.

The capture of Avdiivka, while symbolically significant for Russia, is seen by analysts as unlikely to alter the overall stalemate along the extensive front line significantly. The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Moscow’s gain in Avdiivka may offer immediate informational and political victories but is unlikely to lead to substantial operational advances. This perspective underscores the complex dynamics of the conflict, where symbolic victories are weighed against the broader strategic objectives and challenges.

Is Putting winning?

Despite initial setbacks in his ambitions to swiftly capture key Ukrainian cities, Putin has adjusted his goals, effectively countering Ukraine’s highly anticipated counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. He now maintains a firm grip on significant territories in the south and east of Ukraine. This shift reflects a broader strategy of endurance, aiming to outpace Western resolve and support for Ukraine.

In last few months, Putin has made increasingly bullish statements. In December, he declared that Ukraine “does not have a future” and. In interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin claimed that a strategic defeat of Russia is “impossible by definition”.

Analysts think only drastically ramped up Western support for Ukraine as it runs out of munitions can change the momentum.

“If the Western funding does not come through, if Russia gains some sort of advantage, then they have the possibility of making some more gains,” Andrea Kendall-Taylor, senior fellow at Washington-based Center for New American Security (CNAS), told AFP.

“The momentum has shifted.”

What next

The West’s unity and commitment are under the microscope as US aid delays and European fractures emerge. Putin’s anticipation of a “window of opportunity” in 2024, possibly influenced by the US presidential election and internal EU disagreements, highlights the complex interplay of military strategy and international politics.

The trajectory of the war could hinge on several factors in the coming year. Increased Western support for Ukraine, the outcome of the US election, and the internal dynamics within Russia itself, where economic strain and public fatigue are growing concerns, will all play pivotal roles.

(With inputs from agencies)

For more news like this visit TOI. Get all the Latest News, City News, India News, Business News, and Sports News. For Entertainment News, TV News, and Lifestyle Tips visit Etimes