Opinion: Mission 100 - where all Congress could hurt BJP

Opinion: Mission 100 – where all Congress could hurt BJP

Even as the stage is set for the first phase of polling, the Congress is hunting for a three-digit figure in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, a distant possibility per pre-poll surveys and general perception. A figure of 100 seats would give the Congress a big psychological boost, even if it implies five more years on the opposition benches.

Congress party managers, in-house strategists, and campaigners see a target of 100 Lok Sabha seats within the realm of possibility. In the Congress’s scheme of things, if it gets around 100 seats, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would have to be content with a simple majority as INDIA bloc partners would likely score another 135-140 Lok Sabha seats.

The Congress, part of the 27-party INDIA bloc, is confident of netting 45 or more Lok Sabha seats from southern states Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, and Karnataka.Â

In Kerala, there has been a trend of the principal Opposition getting a bulk of 20 parliamentary seats against the ruling party. Kerala is also one of three Indian states where Rahul Gandhi’s popularity ratings surpass Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s. Tamil Nadu and Punjab are two other states in this league.Â

There is also a near unanimity on the Congress performing well in Tamil Nadu, where it has an alliance with the ruling DMK.

A lot has been said, written, and speculated about Karnataka where the BJP won 25 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2019. Can the BJP retain or improve its tally?Â

Congress’s in-house assessment points at sharing honours with the BJP, i.e., winning half of 28 seats. Party insiders point to the strategy of fielding the most resourceful candidates in the fray. Several close relatives of state ministers are fighting Lok Sabha polls. The presence of ten powerful dynasties in the Lok Sabha contest is aimed at bringing better electoral results than in 2019. The prestige of the Siddaramaiah regime is at stake — a poor showing on June 4, 2024, would trigger internal disquiet and instability.

In Telangana too, Congress is targeting a double-digit figure of 10 out of 17 parliamentary seats. Most pollsters project seven or eight seats for the grand old party, which won the state in December 2023.

The Congress also hopes to win some seats from Maharashtra and Bihar, where strategic electoral alliances are in place with Shiv Sena (Udhav Balasaheb Thackeray), the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), the Rashtriya Janata Dal, and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation. In the party’s assessment, while the BJP is poised to perform well in these two states, its allies are slated to fail and falter. In Punjab as well, the Congress is expecting to get seven to eight Lok Sabha seats.

The Congress also hopes for some seats from the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Haryana, where the party drew almost a blank in the 2019 polls.Â

In Rajasthan, where polling is slated for April 19 and 26, the Congress is in the hunt for victories on Churu, Barmer, Jhunjhunu, Dausa, Ganganagar, Karauli-Dholpur, Sikar, and Nagaur seats. Even if half of these chances convert into electoral victory, Congress would be removing the stigma of nils-and-naughts in 2014 and 2019. Regional satraps namely Sachin Pilot, Ashok Gehlot, and Govind Singh Dotasra, who had built a reputation for disagreeing with each other, are now working cohesively. Â

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is trying to redeem itself from its pathetic performance in the 2023 Assembly polls. This time, the party hopes to win seats other than Chhindwara, where veteran Kamal Nath’s son Nakul is engaged in a protracted electoral battle. During the campaign, Nath senior appealed to voters to look at his age and contribution and vote “one last time”. Â

The Congress campaign in Rajgarh, Mandla, Morena, Bhind, Ratlam-Jhabua, Satna, and Gwalior also show promise. In fact, the emotional appeal from veterans like Kamal Nath, Digvijaya Singh, Kantilal Bhuria, and Ajay Singh appears to be a big draw.

In Chhattisgarh, the Congress is confident of winning the Rajnandgaon seat where former Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel is in the fray. Bastar is another seat where sitting MP and state Congress unit chief Deepak Baij was denied ticket and local MLA Kawasi Lakhma is contesting. As MLA, Lakhma holds the distinction of winning five consecutive elections.Â

In Haryana, the BJP won all 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 but this time, the Congress is posing a formidable challenge in Rohtak, Sirsa and Hisar.