Keeping up with UP | In Rae Bareli's political landscape, it’s power versus sympathy

Rae Bareli has stood with the Gandhi family as well as the Congress party since 1952 when Feroze Gandhi — Indira Gandhi’s husband — was first elected from this backward class-dominated constituency.

Congress chairperson Sonia Gandhi won from Rae Bareli for the fifth time in the 2019 general elections, polling 55.80% of the votes. She has won consecutively since 2004, including a by-poll in 2006 when she polled 80.49% votes.

Rae Bareli has stood with the Gandhi family as well as the Congress party since 1952 when Feroze Gandhi — Indira Gandhi’s husband — was first elected from this backward class-dominated constituency.

Former prime minister Indira Gandhi won it in 1967 and 1971 but lost the seat to Janata Party’s Raj Narain in 1977. She did not forgive them for her humiliating defeat and in the 1980 polls, she contested from two seats: Rae Bareli and Medak (in what is now Telangana). She won from both constituencies and relinquished Rae Bareli, saying the victory margin in Medak was greater. Old timers still regret voting against her.

This background is important as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) now eyes the Congress’ only remaining parliamentary citadel that it wishes to conquer in the 2024 elections. But as of now, both the Gandhis and the BJP leadership are keeping their cards close to their chest barring a statement by the Union information and broadcasting minister Anurag Thakur, in which he had said that no one from the Gandhi family will be in a position to contest elections from Uttar Pradesh and the Congress party will face the consequences of opposing the construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

What are the ground realities then?

Rae Bareli is as drenched in Ram fervour as any other part of the state. Will this be reflected in the constituency where people love to flaunt their special connection with the Gandhis, and every second person claims to have shaken hands with at least one member of the family?

It’s difficult to say what will have an effect– power or sympathy.

According to political analysts, the first indication will come from the selection of candidates by both parties, and they predict Sonia contesting from two seats, in case she decides not to opt for the Rajya Sabha route.

But in case she decides to field her daughter, Priyanka Gandhi, then the BJP will pull out all stops to defeat her. “We will see a fierce contest between the NDA and INDIA bloc as Mayawati may also stay away from the battleground,” said political expert Gaurav Awasthi.

Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has maintained a good relationship with the people of the constituency, who have, however, been unhappy with the local Congress leadership. Now, they are seeking more attention as they feel neglected by the double-engine rule. The Congress has been out of power since 1989.

As of now, the Congress unit has been activated for the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, which will cover the two constituencies — Rae Bareli and Amethi — that have been in the family for years. Rahul Gandhi lost to Smriti Irani in Amethi in the 2019 general elections.

Interestingly, Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav, responding to Congress’ invitation to join the yatra, has decided to visit the two constituencies with Rahul. With Priyanka, the optics will be huge. But will this convert into votes?

Rae Bareli is a backward-dominated constituency and in 2022, when the BJP had stormed the state the second time, the SP had won four of the five assembly segments of the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat. The fifth was won by the BJP.

So, what accounts for the BJP’s confidence?

It stems from vanquishing Congress in Amethi. The BJP won the seat in 1996 and 1998 too, but both those times, the Congress had fielded the little-known Vikram Kaul and Deepa Kaul, as Sonia Gandhi had not taken a plunge into active politics at the time.

The BJP’s vote share has steadily risen since 2004 when it ended up in fourth place in the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha constituency. In the 2006 by-poll, the BJP had secured 3.33 % votes, ending at third position. In 2009, it mustered 3.82% votes and was in the second position in 2014, polling 21.05% vote. It eventually managed to get 38.36% vote in 2019, when both SP and BSP had stayed away from the electoral fray in that seat.

As a political courtesy, SP and Congress did not field candidates on family seats of each other. Even the BJP, in its earlier garb, rarely campaigned in the Gandhi constituency.

But now the new, resurgent BJP is out to demolish opposition’s bastions and Rae Bareli is on the top of their list.

The Congress high command knows no one is invincible having lost in all five assembly segments of Rae Bareli in the 2012 assembly elections, despite Priyanka’s intensive campaigning. People were miffed with the high-brow MLAs, who, they felt, served the Gandhis and not the voters.

Priyanka herself had admitted the political embarrassment the defeat of the Congress candidates had caused in 2012. “It sends the wrong message to the entire country,” she had said. She later rebuilt the organisation and today there is a Congress worker for every 50 voters.

Rae Bareli perhaps is the only constituency in the country that has elected a galaxy of high-profile MPs — India’s first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s son-in-law, prime minister Indira Gandhi to United Progressive Alliance chairperson Sonia Gandhi. The constituency also created history when it defeated a PM and elected socialist leader Raj Narain.

From her perch in Lucknow, HT’s senior journalist Sunita Aron highlights important issues related to Uttar Pradesh

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