Modi factor continues to play major role for NDA: Pre-poll survey

Hello and welcome to this edition of Elections Unlock, the show that brings you all that’s happening in battleground 2024. Now all eyes this week are on the first phase of polling that begins on Friday. Ahead of that, a poll survey conducted by reputed poll agency CSTS. Lok Niti reveals that the Narendra Modi factor continues to play a major role in providing the NDA with an advantage. However, livelihood related issues linked to jobs and prices are emerging as major concerns to dissatisfaction over unemployment and inflation suggests that this could, in some parts of the country certainly be a tougher fight than many might have imagined. Just to give you some data from that CSDS Lokhiti Pre poll survey and some of the latest findings from that survey, who will you vote for if elections are held? Today, voters gave the National Democratic Alliance a comfortable 12 percentage advantage over the rival Alliance India. If you look at their numbers there, they add up to 40% for the BJP alone, up from 2019 by 3%, Congress up by 2% but a wide gap between the two. A significant share of people continue to be satisfied with the NDA government, but the numbers have come down compared to the 2019 free poll survey. Then, 65% said they were somewhat of very satisfied, fully satisfied with the Modi government in the 2024 election, the share of such respondents has come down by 8% to 57%. The share of those somewhat of fully dissatisfied has increased from 30% to 39%. The decrease in satisfaction seems to stem from inflation, increased unemployment and poverty. These were the top three issues and the least popular initiatives of the Modi government, especially with only voters favoring the opposition, were considered more of the more of more than half of them cited. And these were the reasons why they least like the work of Mr. Modi. What about Ayodhya? This is what the survey said. The Ram Mandir was chosen by many in this government as the governments board most admired achievement 23%. This was especially true among NDA voters. One in three chose the construction of the temple as the most admired work of the Modi government. Unemployment, price rise and falling income, as I said, were the top three reasons chosen by respondents for not giving the government another chance. Also, close to 48% of the voters continue to back Mr. Modi as their preferred choice for Prime Minister, as against 27% who chose Congress MP Rahul Gandhi. Overall, the survey indicates that the BJP is heading for a potential hat trick in the 2024 elections, although questions about its performance and whether it could cross 400 are all open and still uncertain. Let’s get a sense, therefore, the big takeaways from the survey. I’m joined by two of the authors of the survey, Leading political scientist Professor Sue Sue as Parashikar joins me. And also joining me, Professor Sanjay Kumar, Co Director, Lok Niti, CSTS. Appreciate both of you joining us. I want your big takeaways, Professor Parashikar first. If I were to say what for you is the standout from this survey that you all have done, I think I would list 2 takeaways. One is while the BJP is leading, there are complications for the BJP to handle and it might be a digression but its not really fair to look only at any one particular data point in the survey. One has to look at it holistically. So the larger take away is that while the BJP leads, there are many conditions that apply to this lead of the BJP. The other take away, I think also is that, as you rightly pointed out in your introductory comments, MODIS personal popularity continues almost unhindered and that might actually help the BJP to wither away the various crises that the economy might have posed for it. So I think these are the two big takeaways that the BJP depends on Modi continues to depend upon Modi and probably cannot do without him. But at the same time, if one really looks only at electoral numbers, the BJP still continues to be ahead in the race right at the beginning of the electoral battle. You know Professor Sanjay Kumar, when I look at vote choice, if elections were held today, BJP 40%, that’s up 3% compared to 2019, along with its allies becomes 46 while the opposition Congress plus allies is 34. Now 12% is a huge advantage. Can we therefore say that its this election is a done deal or are there straws in the wind, especially when I look at regional divergences S versus north. That suggests that maybe there are parts of the country where there is still a real competitive fight on at the moment. Radhik, Certainly there are parts of the country where you can find competitive politics when it comes to 2024 election. And we should not forget that Maharashtra might witness an interesting fight, Bengal might witness an interesting fight. There could be other states in the southern in the southern region, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra. So these are the few states where maybe BJP would do better compared to 2019. But still I think these are the state which we should keep keep an eye on because these states can produce an interesting result for an interesting electoral contest. How do you though explain this divergent? Professor Kumar and Professor Palshikar alluded to that? There is there is an element of antiincumbency. Voters who are satisfied have have reduced in number with the governments performance. And yet Mr. Modis popularity seems to remain rock solid. Is it? When you asked a direct question, who do you want as Prime Minister that he shows up as well ahead of his rivals? Question is to Meerajdi. Yes, yes, Professor. No, See, this is a direct question which we ask. It’s an open-ended question. Whom do you want to see as the next Prime Minister? And they’ve been asking this question over a period of time, Rajdeep. And most of the time we have figured out that Prime Minister Modi stands at a very high rating, 454647 percent. So that’s there. But if we look at the proportion of people who want this government to be reelected or proportion of people who don’t want this government to be reelected, compared to 2019 post poll survey, there is a dip of 3% among those who don’t want this government to be reelected. Clearly there are signs of this government becoming slightly unpopular compared to 2018. Maybe if I want to use a different phrase, not unpopular but at least sizable number of people don’t want this government to be reelected. But I think still what accounts for BJP is 40% vote share. Is Prime Minister Narendra Modis image his own popularity and also a lack of alternative which doesn’t come out very clearly from the data But from other other anecdotal evidences, I get a sense that there could be about 7 or 8% voters who don’t want this government to be reelected but they would end up. They end up voting for BJP because they think Prime Minister Modi is a strong man. He is the person who is leading the country and there is no match for Prime Minister Modi. So its the question of there is no alternative, that’s an interesting way the way you’re putting it. But Professor Palshikar, as I said there seems to be a regional divide. The satisfaction levels in north and Western India with this government seem to be higher than they are for example in the South of the country or indeed the even in parts of the east. So we seem to be almost going back to 2019, where the northwest monsoon propels the BJP once again to power. Are we a country in that sense, whether or where there’s a clear divergent in the way people perceive this government, depending on where you live in this country, sure. When the BJP really emerged under Narendra Modis leadership in 2014, it was basically a party of the North and the West. But since then, we must not forget that they have spread to the East as well as to the South. Although the divide still continues and I think that divide is the major hurdle in the ambition of the BJP to become a truly nationally dominant party. So one part of the discussion would obviously be whether they would get seats in these regions. They are less likely to get many seats in some of these states. But on the other hand, if one looks at their spread, I think the BJP is spreading slowly as a nationally dominant party. And that is why it is in these regions where the next five years a very intense electoral as well as political battle would unfold. I’m also seeing Professor Palshikar, that not just Hindu upper caste but as per your survey, even Hindu Obcs, a constituency which the Congress in particular has tried to woo, still remain firmly with the BJP. So the BJP seems to have the advantage of not just the Hindu upper caste but also importantly the Hindu Obcs which give them this firm edge over their rivals. Oh yes, what I would write really call the Hindu umbrella. That is what the BJP has designed. This Hindu umbrella is quite solid. It is not just the upper costs or the intermediate castes which are supporting the BJP. The BJP has systematically won over the Obcs in North India in particular, but elsewhere also and even among the Scheduled Caste, the Dalit voters, the spread of the BJP is not insignificant. So it is really the success story of the BJP in attracting a large number of the Hindu majority towards itself and that constitutes the backbone of the BJP success. Whatever the other parties have done so far, they have not able been able to really puncture any of these sections of the Hindu society and win them away from the BJP. Even during this campaign, there doesn’t seem to be any inkling of that happening so far. I also see Sanjay Kumar Ji that even in villages the BJP is still rock solid, 24% fully satisfied, 36% somewhat satisfied, so 60%. So the BJP has not just broken this impression that it was a upper caste party but is also in recent times been able to penetrate into deep interior India and that again seem its not an urban party as per your poll its doing solidly in in villa in in rural India. That’s where its getting this great advantage over its rivals. Absolutely Rajdeep, its not only our pre poll survey for 2024, if you look at the analysis of 2/20/19 electoral verdict, the post poll survey, even in that election we got a sense that BJP made huge inroads among the rural voter. 2024 pre poll survey is indicating that BJP has been able to make further inroads among the rural voters and there is a huge overlap. BJP has also been able to make huge inroads among the poor voters and the lower lower class voters of this country. So what is happening is that BJP support base which used to be urban educated, middle class. No more. BGP remains a party of the urban educated. The strength BJP is drawing at this moment is its expanded wings in the rural India and its massive support base among the poor sections of the society. Let me therefore put both of you on the line, starting with you Professor Parshikar, the BJP or the Prime Minister, says UP Ki bar Char. So far BJP on its own 370 with allies 400 plus. The Congress says you will be in for a surprise. This could be Modi shining moment. What’s your sense is, is the truth somewhere in between between this 400 or chance so par and the Congress hoping for a repeat of 2004. Definitely. I think it is somewhere in the middle of these. While it is too early in a sense because campaign is still unfolding in many parts to comment much on what the seat conversion would be, I would still be inclined to say that for the BJP workers, it might be encouraging to have a campaign point to say that we will be charged so far this time. However, the reality is that it is more likely that the BJP would get stagnated around what it has been so far around 300. And that should be in fact a great achievement for a party like BJP because it has been winning the elections for the third time now. So I think it will be somewhere in between that as long as as far as the estimate of the Congress that it will be a repeat of 2004, I think that is still a distant dream for a party like the Congress. For that to happen, the Congress will probably have to exert much, much more in the coming weeks of the campaign, and the economic issues will have to really pick up in the campaign. Unless that happens, and unless that economic dissatisfaction converts itself into a concrete electoral issue and therefore against the BJPI, don’t think the BJP has much risk in these elections to repeat its earlier performance. Interesting, Professor Parshika virtually suggesting Teen so far is almost certain 400 appears a bit like throwing up, conjuring up a dream to galvanized your supporters. But Professor Sanjay Kumar, a final word from you. What are you also saying, team? So is the more likely achievable target? And for the Congress, is it possible at all for them to look at even 100? Because if they look at 100, then they have a chance of bringing the BJP below 272. No, Absolutely Rajdeep I. For the Congress, I would my own sense would be the number you have mentioned hundred. I I would be happy. I would I I would suggest that let’s divide it by two. So that’s the number for the Congress and if Congress is going to be somewhere around what you what its tally was in 2019, BJP is also more or less standing where it was in 2019. Three, percentage of vote share increase is not going to give them a lot of dividend in terms of seeds. So more or less anything between 35 to 3:10, 3/15 at this moment. I think we should be very, very careful in reading the pre poll survey. The survey was conducted in the 1st of April which gave us an indication of what is the situation at this moment. The campaign still to pick up for the 6th, 7th and the 5th round. Things might change but my own sense is that its not going to change in such a way that it could 2024 could be 22 the 2004 Lok Sabha elections. OK, so I think both of you have been have given us a sense of of where we are headed as this election race begins. We don’t know a week is a long time in politics but at this particular point, as this survey clearly indicates, the gap remains fairly wide between the NDA and the Opposition. Appreciate Professor Palshikar and Dr. Sanjay Kumar for taking the time off and joining me here on the elections unlocked our big Constitution. Face off erupting Rahul Gandhi claiming constitutional institutions under threat. Prime Minister Modi accusing the opposition of peddling lies as they are using the Constitution for their politics. Meanwhile, the Congress top leaders are finally in campaign mode. Congress chief Mallika Arjun Kharge scheduled to address a public meeting in Nagaland, Dimapur. On the other hand, the Congress General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra holding meetings and roadshows in Assam, Jorhat and Tripura Janasenas chief Pawan Kalyan today lashing out a chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy, blaming the state police for their failure to prevent the stone pelting incident against the Chief minister taking a jibe, Pawan Kalyan said instead of investigating the police failure, they’re giving the job of investigating the stone pelting incident to them. With Lok Sabha polls just days away, Samajwadi Party leader the sitting man Puri MP Dimple Yadav today filed her nomination for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Union Minister Jyotiraditya Scindia filed his nomination in Madhya Pradesh is Shivpuri for the upcoming Lok Sabha election Scindia. Remember, last time lost as a Congress candidate from Guna. This time he is contesting on a BJP election. OK, let’s tell you our special report today and it comes from Bihar where Pappu Yadav is contesting an election as an independent candidate. Now here is someone contesting from Poornya. He is virtually fighting for his political future. He was hoping to become a Congress candidate did not become and how Poornya votes will could well decide the fate of this one time strongman. My colleague Rohit Singh was on the campaign trail with the Poornya strongman Pappu Yadav ka zabardas Jo hai prachar prasar in the know purnia ke gau gau tolo tolo mejo hai wo chal rahab dekhte kis tarique. Say Pappu yadavs subesh aleke de raat Tak ishi tari ke SE gong hum rahe hai. Logo ke beach jar hai hai kafi salon ke baad. Up to now Kha B leadership lalit naran Misraji Bhupinder Babu BP mandal to renuji Salaam or Ek bhakti ko Ek OEKO KPM Ek jeduku midwar SE bilarna hai. Ek mahagat bandan Ki bhima Bharti meri meri ladai Delhi Patna valos meri ladai kosi simantal Ki janta joana meriyak. Party Gandhiji or blessing Please take a beach Kisi Vitaaga Jath Part Hindu Salman. I’m afraid that’s all that we could pack in in this edition of Elections Unlocked. As always, thanks for watching.