Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How Lalu pushes Congress on the backfoot in Bihar

Lok Sabha Elections 2024: How Lalu pushes Congress on the backfoot in Bihar

Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief Lalu Prasad is playing on the front foot, putting the Opposition INDIA bloc on the edge, days ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Leaders from the Congress and Left camps feel constrained and remain undecided about a unified campaign. With less than 48 hours left for filing nominations for the first phase of polls in Aurangabad, Gaya, Jamui, and Nawada seats, the RJD has begun unilaterally distributing symbols to its candidates, effectively limiting the room for other constituent parties to negotiate in seat-sharing discussions.

RJD Unilaterally Assigns Party Symbols to Candidates

Reports suggest that the RJD has unilaterally allocated party symbols to its candidates without prior consent from its allied partners in the Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance). In Nawada, the RJD nominee Shrawan Kumar Kushwaha filed his nomination papers on March 26. Moreover, the RJD has decided to nominate former agriculture minister Kumar Sarvjeet from the Gaya Lok Sabha seat. Lalu has also distributed party symbols to more than 10 candidates, including Archana Ravidas from Jamui and Abhay Kushwaha from the Aurangabad parliamentary segment.

Congress Ranks Stirred by RJD’s Surprise Announcement

Discontent is simmering within the Bihar Congress ranks, particularly as senior leader Nikhil Kumar, a former governor of Nagaland and Kerala, was surprised by the RJD’s announcement of Kushwaha’s candidacy for Aurangabad.

Tejashwi Denies Discord in Mahagathbandhan

Former Bihar deputy chief minister and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav, meanwhile, has dismissed rumours of discord within the Mahagathbandhan and said that an agreement on seat sharing for the Lok Sabha elections in Bihar has been reached. He indicated that an official announcement regarding this agreement will be made shortly in Patna.

Tensions Escalate as Pappu Yadav’s Outfit Merger with Congress

Five-term MP Pappu Yadav, who was previously expelled from the RJD, merged his Jan Adhikar Party with the Congress with aspirations of contesting from the Purnia Lok Sabha seat on Congress ticket, further igniting tensions. In response, the RJD, displeased by Yadav’s move, nominated Bima Bharati, who had switched from the Janata Dal (United) to the RJD, as its candidate for Purnia.

Paapu is the husband of Congress Rajya Sabha MP Ranjeet Ranjan and is known for his significant influence in the Seemanchal and Kosi regions of Bihar. In 2015, the RJD expelled him following his persistent criticism of Lalu Yadav concerning the issue of succession within the party.

Risks and Challenges in RJD’s Seat Allocation

Political analysts argue that that winnability is the paramount consideration in elections. Given the relatively weak organisational structure of the Congress in the state, the RJD risks overextending itself by allocating more seats than it can effectively manage. Additionally, for the Congress to secure victories, Lalu’s core vote bank would need to be transferred to the Congress’s candidates. It seems unlikely that a formidable leader like Lalu would willingly transfer his party’s seats to another party, such as the Congress, especially considering the strategic implications of such a move.

Lalu’s Strategy: Balancing Act Amid Coalition Dynamics

Lalu was reluctant to allocate more than five to six seats to the Congress, despite the latter’s request for over 10 tickets. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, while the RJD contested 19 seats, the Congress fielded candidates in nine constituencies. The remaining seats were divided among other parties, such as the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP) led by Upendra Kushwaha, the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) led by Mukesh Sahani, and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) led by Jitan Ram Manjhi.

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Porous Relations: Cong, RJD Clash Over Seat Allocation

The cracks within the INDIA bloc are becoming apparent through the ongoing struggle between the Congress and the RJD in the state. Reports say the RJD is adamant about securing no less than 30 seats. Additionally, if the RJD receives two seats in Jharkhand, it may be inclined to offer the Congress an additional seat in Bihar.

Lalu’s Enduring Legacy: Influence and Challenges in Bihar

More significantly, Lalu remains a formidable force in Bihar politics. Despite losing power to the JD(U)-BJP alliance in 2005, he has managed to retain a huge portion of his political influence and resources. However, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s strategy of focusing on non-Yadav backward classes did dent Lalu’s dominance over this demographic to some extent, benefiting the JD(U) politically. Nevertheless, the Bihar CM was unable to diminish the emotional connection that the RJD leader enjoys with the Yadav community, which constitutes the single largest caste in Bihar. Additionally, Lalu Yadav’s legacy of advocating for marginalised sections continues to resonate with these communities, contributing to his enduring appeal, according to experts.

Lalu’s Anti-RSS-BJP Stance: Mobilising Minority Support

Lalu’s consistent aggression against the RSS-BJP, dating back to his rise to power in 1990, has earned him the support of minorities, who make up more than 16 percent of Bihar’s population. In doing so, he capitalised on the vacuum left by the Congress, solidifying his political standing.

Cong’s Underperformance Weakens Grand Alliance

The Congress is facing criticism for its lacklustre performance in the 2020 assembly elections, which has put it in a disadvantaged position within the grand alliance. The RJD believes that had the Congress performed better in the last assembly elections, Tejashwi Yadav would have assumed the role of chief minister. However, the Congress’s weak showing, winning only 19 of the 70 seats it contested in the last assembly elections in the state, has reinforced its reputation as the weak link in the alliance.

Congress Struggles with Leadership Vacuum

Over the past three decades, the Congress has failed to nurture strong leadership in Bihar, and its current leadership is seen as uninspiring and ineffective in reviving the party’s fortunes. Moreover, senior leaders have not demonstrated a significant statewide political presence more than the last 10 years, further undermining the party’s prospects in Bihar.