Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Trouble for INDIA bloc? NDA to win Himachal, Karnataka; no majority for Trinamool in Bengal – Opinion Poll

The INDIA bloc partners pose for a group photograph ahead of their meeting in Mumbai in September. Nitish Kumar, JD(U) leader is also seen in the photo. His party is no longer with the INDIA bloc. (Photo: PTI)

Lok Sabha Election 2024 Mood of the Nation opinion poll: The BJP-led NDA is likely to sweep Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, while in West Bengal there is going to be a neck-and-neck fight between the BJP and Trinamool Congress (TMC), which is an ally of the INDIA bloc, a grouping of 27 parties to take on the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls, according to an opinion poll.

The Mood of the Nation poll by the India Today group’s February 2024 edition is based on a survey of 35,801 respondents across all Lok Sabha seats. The survey was conducted between December 15, 2023, and January 28, 2024. The projections of the polls are based if elections were to take place in January 2024. The Lok Sabha elections are scheduled in April-May this year.

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Here’s where NDA and INDIA stand in the Opposition parties ruled states:

Himachal Pradesh – NDA to sweep

NDA is all set to sweep Himachal Pradesh and will win all four Lok Sabha seats. The BJP is expected to get 60 per cent vote share, a nine per cent decline from 69 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2019, the BJP had won all four Lok Sabha seats – Kangra, Mandi, Shimla and Hamirpur.

Karnataka – NDA to sweep

The NDA is expected to win 24 out of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, according to the survey. While the BJP is expected to secure 53 per cent of the vote share, INDIA bloc will bag 42 per cent vote share. INDIA bloc is expected to bag the remaining four seats.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had won 27 seats.

Telangana – Congress likely to win

After the recent victory in the Assembly elections, the Congress is likely to win 10 out of the 17 Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with an expected 41.2 per cent vote share.

The BJP-led NDA is likely to bag three seats.

The former leading Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) party, which is led by former Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao, is likely to bag three seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM to get one seat.

West Bengal – TMC likely to lead

The Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) is likely to bag 22 out of the 42 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.

According to the survey, the BJP is expected to secure 19 seats.

Punjab – AAP, Congress tough fight

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Congress in Punjab are expected to bag five seats each out of the 13 Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP is expected to get two seats. The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is likely to bag one seat.

The AAP is likely to get a vote share of 27 per cent, Congress 38 per cent, BJP with 17 per cent, while SAD 14 per cent, and Others with 4 per cent vote share.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress had won eight seats, BJP and SAD two seats each and AAP had won one seat.

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Tamil Nadu – INDIA bloc to lead

The INDIA bloc, of which the ruling party DMK is an ally, will win all 39 Lok Sabha seats, according to the Mood of the Nation survey. The Opposition alliance would win 47 per cent of the vote share. Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA alliance is expected to get 15 per cent of the vote share, while 38 per cent vote share for Others.

Kerala – INDIA to win

The INDIA bloc, of which the ruling Pinarayi Vijaran-led CPI-M is an ally, is expected to win all the 20 Lok Sabha seats, and is likely to get 78 per cent of the vote share.

The NDA’s vote share is expected to rise to 17 per cent, up from 15 per cent in 2019, according to the Mood of the Nation survey.

Delhi – NDA likely to win

In a big setback for Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, the BJP is expected to win 57 per cent of the vote share, while AAP would shrink to 15 per cent, Congress 25 per cent and Others with 3 per cent in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

Jharkhand – NDA expected to win

The NDA is expected to win 12 out of 14 seats in Jharkhand in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, with a vote share of 56 per cent. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc is expected to win 30 per cent of the total vote share and Others 14 per cent in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

In the last Lok Sabha elections, the NDA had got 56 per cent, the Opposition alliance UPA got 35 per cent, and Others 10 per cent.

Andhra Pradesh – TDP likely to win

The former Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu-led Telugu Desam Party (TDP) is likely to bag 17 out of the 25 Lok Sabha seats, according to the survey. The ruling YSRCP, which is not an ally of the INDIA bloc, is likely to bag eight LS seats, 17 seats less than what it had won in the last general elections.

In terms of vote share, the YSRCP is likely to garner 41 per cent, TDP 45 per cent, INDIA three per cent, NDA with two per cent and Others nine per cent.

BJP likely to win 2024 Lok Sabha elections

Meanwhile, according to the survey, the BJP-led NDA will likely return to power for a third consecutive time bagging 335 seats out of the 543 seats.

The Congress is set to be the second-largest party with 71 seats, while Others, including regional parties and independents, will bag the remaining 168 seats.

(Disclaimer: Opinion polls are just predictions, with results likely to vary.)