Is Kanhaiya Kumar the new Sheila Dikshit for Delhi Congress? Decoding K-factor

Is Kanhaiya Kumar the new Sheila Dikshit for Delhi Congress? Decoding K-factor

The decision by the Congress to field Kanhaiya Kumar from the North East Delhi constituency in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections appears to be a calculated move to counter the incumbent BJP MP, Manoj Tiwari. The introduction of Kanhaiya – the ‘K’ factor of the Congress – is seemingly part of a broader strategy to resurrect the party, which has been on the decline in the capital city since 2013.

The Congress, in its attempt to reverse its misfortunes, has experimented with various strategies, but none seem to have been successful over the past decade. In this context, Kanhaiya Kumar seems to be the Congress’s wild card, reminiscent of how Sonia Gandhi once brought in Sheila Dikshit to counter a formidable BJP in Delhi in the late 90s.

Back then, it wasn’t just about countering the BJP but also keeping in check Congress veterans such as Sajjan Kumar, Jagdish Tytler, HKL Bhagat, and Ram Babu Sharma, who the party thought were past their prime. The move paid off as Dikshit was successful in eliminating the BJP’s influence and decimating its local leadership. Dikshit went on to become a towering figure in Delhi’s politics.

Fast-forward to 2024, and the Congress is hoping that its gamble with Kanhaiya Kumar could turn party’s fortunes. He has been brought in to navigate the complex challenges in Delhi, including the other dominant ‘K’ factor – Arvind Kejriwal – who currently heads the Aam Aadmi Party-led Delhi government, with the BJP as the main opposition party.

While Kanhaiya will undoubtedly face opposition from within the local party leadership, Rahul Gandhi, who pitched his candidature, according to sources, believes that the Delhi unit of the Congress requires a complete overhaul.

In that sense, the newly-found ‘K’ factor represents more than just an electoral strategy for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections only.

KANHAIYA’S 3Cs: CONTROVERSY, CPI & CONGRESS

Kanhaiya Kumar, ideologically fostered under Left-wing politics, has become one of the hand-picked candidates in Congress by Rahul Gandhi. He started his electoral journey from Bihar’s Begusarai by contesting on a Communist Party of India (CPI) ticket for the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Much before that, he came into the spotlight during the 2016 controversy when he served as the Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union (JNUSU) president. Â

In early 2016, Kanhaiya was embroiled in a major controversy and was consequently jailed under sedition charges. However, he secured bail within a few days and walked out of Tihar Jail in March 2016. Post his release, he made a memorable speech on March 3, 2016, on the JNU campus, delivering a strong battlecry against the government and Right-wing ideology. His impassioned speech captured the attention of the masses, making him a popular figure.

The same year marked his transition into mainstream politics as he joined the CPI. He was fielded by the party in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections against senior BJP leader Giriraj Singh. The electoral bout stood as a triangular contest involving the BJP, RJD, and the CPI.

Despite losing to Singh by a large margin of nearly 4.2 lakh votes, Kanhaiya managed to garner almost 22 per cent of the total votes. However, this election marked the beginning of his separation from CPI, culminating in a transition in 2021.

Leaving his early Left-wing orientation behind, Kanhaiya eventually joined the Congress party. This switch demonstrated the growing influence of Rahul Gandhi, who continues to foster new faces within the party.

NEW BUZZ IN DELHI POLITICS

Ever since the Congress party grappled with its unceremonious fall in the 2013 Assembly elections, it has been scrambling to regain its footing in Delhi. It was a time of metamorphosis for city politics as the torchbearer of Congress, Sheila Dikshit, was replaced by AAP’s chief Arvind Kejriwal, introducing a political paradigm shift in the capital city.

Kejriwal emerged as a fresh breeze in the political arena, armed with new ideas and establishing AAP as a people’s alternative to the entrenched politics of the BJP and Congress. Amidst this transformation, the Congress party failed to garner support, losing voter confidence after each election.

In the 2020 Assembly elections, Congress was almost decimated, with its candidates receiving less than 5 per cent votes across all seven Lok Sabha constituencies in Delhi.

For the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, Congress has formed an alliance with the AAP. However, the real test for Congress lies in the 2025 Assembly elections. Congress aspires to regain ground lost to AAP, especially as Kejriwal’s popularity is likely to wane after his arrest in an excise policy case.

Political observers say for the Congress to rise from the ashes, it needs innovation and unconventional political tactics. It requires leadership willing to break from traditional ideologies, and think out of the box. In the midst of this political churning, Team Rahul sees potential in 37-year-old Kanhaiya Kumar. They believe that his youthful energy and new perspectives could be the X-factor needed to revive the Congress’s fortunes in the capital. Whether this anticipation mirrors reality will be seen in the forthcoming elections.

KANHAIYA TO WOO PURVANCHAL VOTERS?

The demographic landscape of Delhi has undergone significant changes over the last few decades. Historically, the political dominion was commanded by the Punjabi and Baniya communities, with local Jat and Gurjar candidates also maintaining a substantial influence within the party leadership. However, the contemporary reality reflects a paramount change, driven by the proliferation of unauthorised colonies that have essentially reshaped the political paradigm.

This shift has been deftly utilised by Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP through policies targeting the lower and lower-middle classes. As a result, Kejriwal’s strategy has yielded substantial dividends in the last three consecutive Assembly elections, leaving traditional parties like BJP and Congress struggling to respond.

Delhi’s demography reveals a significant population residing in unauthorised colonies and slums. The residents typically encompass small business owners, daily-wage earners, and labourers who have migrated to the city for livelihood opportunities. There is a striking revelation that illustrates this demographic shift – approximately 40 per cent of Delhi’s total voters are migrants, with Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Jharkhand contributing nearly 30 per cent to this figure.

In terms of tangible political implications, these migrated voters have significant sway over about 30 of the 70 Assembly seats. Moreover, around 45 of these Assembly constituencies comprise voters from unauthorised colonies, thus influencing the trajectory of the election outcomes.

Recognising this demographic evolution, AAP has fostered the leadership of Purvanchali representatives such as Sanjeev Jha, Vinay Mishra, Durgesh Pathak, Dilip Pandey, Vandana Jha, and Rituraj Govind in the Delhi Assembly.

This development has facilitated the AAP in capturing considerable support from the community, which previously stood as a Congress stronghold under the Sheila Dikshit regime. The demographic shifts witnessed in Delhi represent a new political reality.

The AAP’s success demonstrates the power of understanding these changes. The mantra being – pay heed to the evolving demographics, or risk political extinction.

With an eye on the significant number of Purvanchali voters in Delhi, the Congress had considered appointing Kanhaiya Kumar in a leadership role in the capital last year. However, this idea hit a roadblock as it was contended that Kumar, not having any prior association with the Congress’s Delhi unit, might find it challenging to navigate through the party’s organisational structure in the national capital.

Kumar’s electoral constituency presented another issue. His inclination to contest elections from Begusarai in Bihar, rather than Delhi, raised doubts about his commitment to the party’s interests in the capital. But, with Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress’s alliance partner in Bihar, seemingly shutting doors on his political ambitions in the state, Congress now seems set to consider a new direction in Delhi politics for Kanhaiya Kumar.

Sources say that the Congress leadership is of the view that even if Kumar loses the North-East constituency in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, the party would still consider a larger role for him in the Delhi unit post elections.

Drawing a parallel with the political journey of another party stalwart, a senior Congress leader pointed out that Sheila Dikshit, who has left an indelible mark on Delhi politics, had a similar trajectory. Dikshit lost her first Lok Sabha election from East Delhi constituency to Lal Bihari Tiwari of the BJP in 1998.

However, she made a much-celebrated comeback in the same year, winning the Assembly elections as the president of the Delhi unit of Congress.

CHALLENGES

Kanhaiya Kumar’s road to Delhi is fraught with challenges. His exposure to mainstream politics has been limited, having contested only a single election so far. It must also be acknowledged that the Congress is grappling with its own challenges, fenced out by both the BJP and AAP. The morale within the rank and file is palpably low. The BJP is seen as the strongest contender to take on AAP.

Moreover, incumbent CM Kejriwal, despite facing corruption charges and being incarcerated, still retains high voter popularity in Delhi. His party also claims that he is a victim of a political vendetta due to his confrontations with the BJP and the central government. In such a complex scenario, for a newcomer like Kanhaiya Kumar, reviving the Congress’s fortunes will undoubtedly be a Herculean task.

State party leaders may not readily accept him as an insider. Additionally, the upcoming Lok Sabha elections will serve as a litmus test for the party’s future in Delhi. If its performance is lacklustre, resulting in a loss, the central leadership is likely to come under fire. In such an eventuality, all ambitious plans to restore political dominance in Delhi may be consigned to oblivion. The path for Kanhaiya Kumar, therefore, will not be a smooth one.

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