How Modi's 'Mission 370' Can Become A Reality? States That Matter To BJP In Lok Sabha Polls

how modi’s ‘mission 370’ can become a reality? states that matter to bjp in lok sabha polls

New Delhi: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set an ambitious goal of securing 370 seats solely for the BJP in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. PM Modi’s “Mission 370” holds symbolic significance as the BJP looks to align the party’s goal with the removal of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, which revoked the region’s special status. While pre-poll surveys indicate a favourable outcome for the Modi government, achieving the target of 370 seats poses a formidable challenge for the BJP.

How Numbers Are Stacked Up For BJP Before Polls

At present, the BJP alone has 303 seats in its kitty. To cross the target of 370 seats BJP would need to repeat its stellar performance of 2019 once again and not just that, the saffron party will also need to go beyond that. The BJP not only wants 370 seats for itself but has also set a lofty target of 400 plus seats for the NDA. The ambitious goal-setting ahead of the Lok Sabha polls can be also attributed to a clever ploy to reignite the cadres and ensure that they do not become lazy in an atmosphere where Modi’s term looks all but certain.

The Math Behind BJP’s Mission ‘370’

For the BJP to reach anywhere near its target, the saffron party has to not only repeat its 2019 feats in states where it went for a clean sweep or a near clean sweep but also need to maximise in states where it won more than half the seats and need to go all guns blazing in states where the party punched below its weight.

For example, in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar, Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Karnataka the party almost managed a clean sweep in the 2019 polls. However, in 2019 the party may face difficulties in states like Rajasthan and Haryana.

The upcoming Lok Sabha elections pose a significant challenge for Bhajan Lal Sharma, the relatively new MLA who assumed the role of chief minister in 2023. While voter behaviour often differs between assembly and Lok Sabha polls, a concerning trend for the BJP emerges from the fact that the Congress, its primary rival in the state, secured a larger vote share in nearly 10 Lok Sabha constituencies during last year’s assembly elections.

Of particular worry for the BJP is the potential erosion of its support base in Haryana, where it had previously captured all 10 seats. Factors such as ongoing farmer protests and a decline in appeal for ML Khattar across various segments of the populace may adversely affect the party’s electoral prospects in the state. Recognizing the prevailing public sentiment, the party recently replaced Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini as the chief minister.

Maharashtra, a state where the BJP secured an impressive 41 out of 48 seats in the previous elections, may present a formidable challenge in the upcoming polls. Despite the BJP’s efforts to weaken the opposition alliance by dividing parties like Shiv Sena and the NCP, the coalition continues to enjoy significant support among voters.

States Where BJP Needs To Increase Its Tally

In West Bengal, the BJP is poised for a significant opportunity to enhance its previous tally of 18 seats out of the total 42 secured in 2019.

Additionally, the party eyes promising prospects in other southern states. In Andhra Pradesh, where the BJP failed to secure any seats out of the 25 in 2019, alliances with parties like the TDP and Jana Sena hold promise.

Telangana, where the BJP clinched 5 out of 17 seats previously, presents another avenue for substantial growth.

Furthermore, states like Tamil Nadu and Kerala may yield surprising results, potentially granting the BJP one or two seats each. The BJP has a track record of breaking new ground and cannot be underestimated in its ability to make political inroads.

However, whether this strategic arithmetic will result in the BJP securing an additional 67 seats remains uncertain until the election results are revealed.